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How worried should we be about the British middle-distance ranks?
On Monday, 18 horses went forward for Sunday’s Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe – and just one of them is trained in Britain.
He’s Sunway, an admirable and tough three-year-old who has been campaigned positively and boldly by connections, taking in the French and Irish Derbies, the King George at Ascot and the Betfred St Leger. He was second at the Curragh and third at Doncaster but he has a Timeform master rating of 117 and a mountain to climb in Paris. He's 66/1.
The raiding party will be doubled if, as expected, Bluestocking is supplemented on Wednesday. She is a proven Group One performer, winning the Pretty Polly in Ireland and Prix Vermeille over Sunday’s course-and-distance already in 2024. She’s 12/1.
But where are the others from this side of the Channel?
Rebel’s Romance is a globetrotting money-spinner for Godolphin but also a gelding, so ludicrously joins Calandagan and Goliath on the barred list.
And then just look at the season so far.
The Derby, Oaks, St Leger, Prince Of Wales’s Stakes, Coral-Eclipse, Juddmonte International, Coronation Cup, King George, Ascot Gold Cup and Goodwood Cup have all gone to Ireland or France with barely a whimper from Britain.
For the Coronation Cup the admirable but gelded Hamish, Emily Upjohn and Time Lock made-up the home challenge.
By late July and the King George, it was Bluestocking, Rebel’s Romance, Dubai Honour and Middle Earth.
With the Gosden older fillies, Inspiral and Emily Upjohn, not operating at their respective 2023 peaks and Nashwa sitting out the entire campaign so far, it’s been a scramble to find big guns to go to war with.
King Of Steel hasn’t raced all season, Passenger was ruled out for the rest of the campaign after sustaining an injury when finishing third in the Sky Bet York Stakes and now just about all the big dances are over.
And it’s not like the three-year-olds are offering much hope of filling the void next time around.
There were 11 British-trained runners in City Of Troy’s Betfred Derby, Ambiente Friendly faring best of those with a fine run in second.
But he hasn’t been at the same level in two subsequent starts and of the ten who joined him in locking horns with the Ballydoyle class of 2024, only four have won since and that quartet registered a solitary victory apiece.
Bellum Justum (Timeform rating 112) was beaten in the Hampton Court and Gordon Stakes before making the most of a good opportunity in the Group Three Nashville Derby Invitational at Kentucky Downs.
Ancient Wisdom (115) won the Bahrain Trophy at the Newmarket July Meeting but hasn’t seen sighted since, Tabletalk (112) took the Sky Bet Melrose from a mark of 95 at York in August and Kamboo (100) won a Racing League Handicap from a perch of 87 at Newcastle in the same month.
And as the season progressed that Classic 11 were reduced to three for the Gordon Stakes – Bellum Justum, Sayedaty Sadaty (111), who was bound for Australia, and Meydaan (103).
Only two lined up in the Sky Bet Great Voltigeur – King’s Gambit (116) and Space Legend (113) – and four in the St Leger, namely Deira Mile (117), Sunway, Wild Waves (110) and You Got To Me (115).
You Got To Me deserves an honorary mention. She finished fourth to Dermot Weld’s Ezeliya in the Oaks and went on to win the Irish equivalent at the Curragh and ran with credit when runner-up in the Yorkshire version too.
But look at the Timeform ratings. The benchmark for a top-class performer is 130 – the figure which City Of Troy carries with him across the Atlantic for the Breeders’ Cup Classic with the addition of a p signalling he’s open to further improvement.
Calandagan, who chased him home at York, is on the cusp at 129p.
There is of course Economics (126p), the upwardly mobile Irish Champion Stakes winner for William Haggas, but elsewhere it’s a scramble to find anything else that could have made an Arc impact from these shores.
The Gosdens went into the campaign saying their three-year-olds would struggle having been disappointed with them as two-year-olds. Haggas has unearthed Economics but has few other genuine Group One options.
Roger Varian won the 1000 Guineas with Elmalka and has a champion miler in Charyn but little in this division, while Rebel’s Romance apart (and he came up short in a rare domestic appearance in the King George) the Godolphin battalion lacks a leader or three.
Their Darley breeding operation isn’t producing a consistent stream of high-quality ten and 12 furlong horses. Shadwell are enduring a relatively quiet season after three hugely successful ones under Sheikha Hissa’s stewardship.
Bluestocking has been Juddmonte’s 2024 flagbearer, and there’s always a chance given they stand Frankel and have a strong band of broodmares that something might emerge to be a Classic contender next year.
But not on the Coolmore scale. Come wind, rain, hail or shine every season they find five or six who can compete in the big races for Aidan O’Brien.
They’ll soon have to do so without the services of Galileo whose reduced final crop are two-year-olds this year, but they do have his daughters, grand-daughters and great grand-daughters to pass on the copper-bottomed stamina and courage to future generations.
It isn’t easy to find a horse good enough to run in an Arc. In 2023 there were four British raiders, five in 2022 and four again in 2021.
Last year Westover finished second to Ace Impact while Bay Bridge (13/1), King George winner Hukum (11/2) and Free Wind (20/1) also lined up.
Alpinista famously won the 2022 renewal when she was joined by Westover (10/1), Alenquer (66/1), Mishriff (33/1) and Mostahdaf (56/1).
When Torquator Tasso won for Germany in 2021 the vanquished included Irish Derby winner Hurricane Lane (3/1 favourite) and Derby winner Adayar (18/5) for Charlie Appleby, plus Alenquer (22/1) and Mojo Star (46/1).
After the season we’ve had it's probably little wonder that the team this year is so light, but with the Classic crop of 2024 also struggling to make an impact against the best of Ireland and France, it might not be a one-off.
And that’s the worry. It’s ironic that the jumps season is about to crank through the gears and the Irish domination, and primarily that of Willie Mullins, will again be a huge focus.
British trainers and owners just haven’t been able to get their hands on young horses who can compete and make an impact at Grade One level for several seasons now.
On the Flat the big overseas investors are still there, pumping millions into the sport on these shores.
As I write, day one of the Goffs Orby Sale is under way. Next week all eyes will be on Tattersalls Book One as the bluebloods walk through the sales ring.
And while that means things can change quicker in the summer game compared to its winter counterpart, owners know their fate much faster and are able to act accordingly, it’s quite clear that simply spending vast sums isn’t a guarantee of success.
Maybe we’re looking at short-term pain for British trainers when it comes to their middle-distance teams, a brief lull, before the tap is turned on again. Possibly. But right now, that feels more hope than expectation.
The loss of emerging horses to Hong Kong and Australia as soon as the big cheque books are opened, a breeding world where speed has been king for so long now and a stud farm in Ireland enjoying a period of domination that is as unfathomable as it has been unprecedented, are all significant headwinds.
Ah headwinds. Now that is one area of strength for British racing right now.
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