After the draw was made for the 2022 Cazoo Derby, Timeform analyse how runners drawn in low numbers have fared in races over a mile and a half at Epsom.
Is stall one a negative over the Derby course?
The theory that breaking from either stall 1 or 2 is a disadvantage over a mile and a half at Epsom has gained traction in recent years – and the data backs up the view.
Adayar won last year's Derby when drawn in stall 1, but he was the first horse to accomplish that feat since Oath in 1999. Meanwhile, no Derby winner has broken from stall 2 since gates were introduced for the race in 1967.
However, rather than focusing purely on winners or losers, a better way of assessing the impact of the draw is considering how many horses ran to form from that stall.
The below graph – using data since the start of 2014 – highlights how horses drawn low over the Derby course and distance of a mile and a half at Epsom have run to form less frequently than those in the middle or high numbers.
Only 41% of horses (from a sample size of 96) drawn in stall 1 have run to form over the course and distance since 2014. Royal Patronage, the mount of Jason Hart, has drawn the short straw in this year's Derby, while Tuesday and Ryan Moore will break from stall 1 in the Oaks.
Similarly, only 42% of horses (from a sample size of 96) drawn in stall 2 have run to form during the same period. The Algarve, drawn in stall 2 for the Oaks, was already a big outsider before the draw was made, but Westover would have been on the radar as a lively runner at double-figure odds before he was landed with stall 2 in the Derby.
There is a smaller sample size covering horses in the high numbers – each race is guaranteed to have a runner in stall 1 but may not have one in stall 16, for example – but the data suggests horses drawn middle or high show their form more frequently (this is not true of those drawn in stall 19, though that will be based on a limited sample).
Why can the low numbers be tricky to overcome?
Sometimes stats based on relatively low sample sizes can just be explained by variance and will level out over time. However, that is unlikely to be the case with this draw stat, as the course configuration provides a good reason for why those in gates 1 or 2 are at a disadvantage.
There is an early right-hand turn, so horses drawn low are initially on the outer, rather than the inside, and need to go hard to get a prominent early position. The field then swing back to the left, meaning those held up from a low draw find horses coming across them and can be short of room.
Former jockey Fran Berry, speaking on a Sporting Life podcast before last year's Derby, explained: "When you are drawn low you have so much running to do to get across.
"It's not even just that running to that right-hand turn – you're going up a hill and with the congestion you get at the pinch point you invariably get a bump which knocks the stuffing out of your horse as they're climbing the hill.
"It doesn't allow horses to get into a rhythm, get a breath, and it's very difficult to secure a smooth passage from that inside berth. You have to work extra hard to keep hold of your place and you can see why horses pay a price for it."
Draw for the 2022 Cazoo Derby
1. Royal Patronage
2. Westover
3. Hoo Ya Mal
4. Stone Age
5. Nations Pride
6. Nahanni
7. Piz Badile
8. Masekela
9. Walk of Stars
10. Glory Daze
11. West Wind Blows
12. Desert Crown
13. Sonny Liston
14. El Habeeb
15. Star of India
16. Changingoftheguard
17. Grand Alliance
Fast Results
Scores
