Scottish Sun columnist and Racing TV analyst Ed Watson casts a critical eye over the final day of the Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup Festival, where he fancies the set-up of the Silver Cup to suit a luckless Richard Fahey sprinter.
BROOKLYN NINE NINE & LUCKY MAN (2.25 Ayr)
I’ll leave the conundrum of a red-hot Ayr Gold Cup, featuring a raft of in-form horses, in the hands of some shrewder judges than me to solve elsewhere on the site. The Silver Cup is a more enticing punting heat to my eyes with two horses which have the potential to be a good bit better than their current marks.
First on the list is the hitherto luckless BROOKLYN NINE NINE, who has repeatedly shaped like a step up from the minimum trip to a a strongly-run 6f handicap like this would be the making of him.
That was once again the case at Ascot a fortnight ago, where he looked especially rusty early on in returning from a four-month break, before storming home late to close to within a rapidly diminishing neck of the winner Woolhampton.
Frustrating though that was for the posse of punters who’d forced him into favouritism in Berkshire, the flip side is he's dodged a 5lb penalty he’d have picked up for winning there. As a result, Richard Fahey’s lightly-raced four-year-old comes into this early-closing race 3lb well-in compared to his revised mark of 84.
His unwelcome knack so far of finding trouble in the run is the only reason I can see as to why he still remains a maiden on turf. The step back up to this trip (four of his last five starts have been over 5f) should give him a bit more breathing space to find his rhythm early on and allow jockey Connor Murtagh extra thinking time to plot his way through pack from a middle draw in stall 15.
Similar comments apply to Summerghand (drawn 12), whose stat-busting win in the Gold Cup in two years ago as an eight-year-old came off a lofty mark of 102. He continues to more than hold his own in these types of big-field handicaps but appears to have little wriggle room off this mark now as he approaches his 11th birthday.
LUCKY MAN was fourth in Summerghand's Gold Cup as a three-year-old and, still only five, has the potential to climb his way back up the ladder. He returned to form with a narrow success at Windsor last time under a canny ride from the outside draw by Oisin Murphy. First-time blinkers (unsurprisingly retained here) were the apparent catalyst for that upturn in fortunes and, while it would have been nice if Murphy was heading to Ayr instead of Newbury to keep the partnership intact, trainer Richard Spencer has secured an excellent stand-in in David Egan.
Lucky Man is actually 2lb wrong at the weights here, but his form of two seasons ago points to him still being feasibly treated off 85. He's worth backing as second choice in the hope the headgear works as well again.
The Inside Word: "He looks an ideal type for this race. He’s drawn bang in the middle which is great as if it becomes apparent there is a draw bias we have options. He ran well back from a break at Ascot last time and it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him run a very big race." - Richard Fahey, trainer
The Inside Word: “I've got Lucky Man and Two Tribes in the race and I couldn't really split them. Lucky Man was disappointing last season and much of this until he returned to form in the blinkers last time. Hes run really well at the track before in the Gold Cup and the ground will be fine for him." - Richard Spencer, trainer
TOWN AND COUNTRY (3.00 Ayr)
I have fond memories of last year’s Firth Of Clyde Stakes having backed Johnny Murtagh’s 10/1 winner Prime Art at as big as 50/1 the night before. This Group 3, which surprisingly is Scotland’s only Group race, has a history of throwing up shock results, with winners at 25/1, 20/1, 16/1 (twice), 11/1 and 10s in the last nine renewals. With plenty of potential improvers in this line-up, it's perfectly possible we’ll get another this time.
While not a double-figure price, I am drawn to the chances of another raider from across the water making it consecutive Irish winners. TOWN AND COUNTRY was a barrier trial winner at Dundalk before having more doors slammed in her face than a cold-calling double-glazing salesman on her official debut for Henry de Bromhead at Naas.
She made no mistake next time at Navan over 5f, getting going late to run down a couple of more experienced sorts who’d both achieved a fair level of form (runner-up rated 90, the third rated 95 and runs in Dundalk’s 4.50 on Friday).
The 160,000gns Earthlight filly needs to improve again - she’s got 9lb to find with Timeform top-rated Maw Lam - but there are reasons to think she can. The step back up to 6f will undoubtedly suit.
She's also trained by a maestro who again showed with Magical Zoe’s Ebor win just a few weeks ago that he has few peers with his handling of fillies and mares. Plus there are plenty of positives to glean from Town And Country's pedigree too - a half-sister to both a Group 3 winner and a Listed winner, and out of a mare who was Group 1 placed.
Over to you Jim Crowley...
More from Sporting Life
- Racecards
- Fast results
- Full results and free video replays
- Horse racing news
- Horse racing tips
- Horse racing features
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Football and other sports tips
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
