Horse Racing Tips: Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup Festival, day one preview

CATALYSE (1.42 Ayr)

Richard Fahey’s decision to run CATALYSE in the meeting curtain-raiser, rather than the nursery on Friday he makes a point of targeting every year, could be interpreted as a pointer to the chances of Bonnie’s Boy in that particular contest.

Or it could just be that James Doyle is Ayr-bound on Thursday and able to ride the Wathnan-owned colt, whereas he’ll be at Newbury for his main employers 24 hours later.

Either way, Starspangledbanner juvenile Catalyse looks capable of shrugging off a 7lb penalty and making up for lost time during a summer that never was.

A taking winner on debut at Hamilton in early June (replay below), Catalyse headed to Royal Ascot a fortnight later seemingly as Wathnan’s main hope for the Coventry.

While owner companions Electrolyte and Columnist (also a Fahey stable-mate) hit the frame at huge prices, Catalyse and Doyle trailed home in mid-pack behind Rashabar, who defied a clear track disadvantage to land that Group 2. Of the first 10 finishers, Brian Meehan’s winner was the only one to race in a smaller group towards the far rail. Catalyse was third home in that smaller group, a neck behind the now 103-rated Camille Pissarro.

Clearly it wasn’t the plan to miss the next three months of the summer to wait for a novice race at Ayr, and that absence raises some questions about how ready he will be to hit the ground running after 93 days in cold storage.

Yet the positive impression Catalyse created at Hamilton remains fresh in my mind, while the step up to 7f for the first time shouldn’t pose a problem for a juvenile who could still have Group-race potential.

The Inside Word

“He won well at Hamilton for Oisin Orr but then bombed out for me at Royal Ascot. He got worked up in the stalls that day and didn’t run much of a race. He’s been off the track for a while since then, but Richard is obviously happy with him again now." - James Doyle, jockey

CHESHIRE DANCER (4.15 Ayr)

The hat-trick-seeking Dancingwithmyself is poised to go off favourite for this fillies-only handicap after back-to-back Ripon wins. She’s a keen-goer who was well-served by an overly strong pace when seeing it out strongly over 1m4f last time. Back in trip and into a race which has a Timeform pace forecast of ‘very weak’, she could be vulnerable off a 6lb higher mark.

CHESHIRE DANCER improved for the step up to this trip for the first time at Sandown three weeks ago, chasing home a lightly-raced and upwardly mobile William Haggas three-year-old filly, who’d entered handicaps off a lenient opening mark. Hugo Palmer’s grey posted a 6lb higher Timeform figure in drawing almost five lengths clear of the third horse, despite Oisin Murphy not riding her out to the line once he accepted there was no catching the winner.

A 3lb rise to a career-high mark of 82 isn’t ideal, but I suspect there’s more to come from this daughter of Phoenix Of Spain over this new trip. Her previous winning form over 1m will also stand her in good stead should this develop into a tactical affair.

Queen Of Soldiers has been bitterly disappointing on her two most recent starts, but an opening handicap mark of 80 is likely to prove workable if getting back to the level that saw her run last week’s Group 2 Park Hill winner Nakheel to a head on debut at Ascot in May.

NEVER BETTER (4.48 Ayr)

Few horses running anywhere this week will have a more regal pedigree than NEVER BETTER. By No Nay Never. Out of a mare who is full sister to Ballydoyle behemoths Magical a seven-time Group 1 scorer including back-to-back Irish Champion Stakes, and Rhododendron, whose three top-level triumphs include the Lockinge and Prix de l’Opera. For good measure, her first and only foal to date just so happens to be a certain Auguste Rodin.

Such illustrious lineage can be every bit as much of a burden as a blessing, of course. It's highly unlikely Never Better will scale the heights of some from his extended family. Neither will a future career in the breeding barns beckon after he was relieved of his crown jewels in May.

What he could develop into, however, is a useful handicapper for Roger Varian at around a mile or possibly a tad further. He certainly showed more than enough on his return to action following the procedure no man wants at Newbury three weeks ago on what doubled as his turf debut. Just run out of third close home, it was the stylish way in which he eased into the business end of the race that suggested he has the potential to prove better than an opening mark of 74.

That he was sent off favourite there on the back of a 139-day absence merely reinforces the view he is considered a potentially favourably-treated type.

With the benefit of that run under his belt and now proven on decent ground, he should be capable of adding to his Kempton novice win in March provided he doesn’t get a tough trip from stall 10.

The Inside Word

“He’s a nice horse who should improve for that comeback run at Newbury. It felt like he needed the run a bit there, so I’m expecting him to come on again for it. I’m drawn a bit wider than ideal, but they should go a nice pace and hopefully that will help me get a decent run at things.” - James Doyle, jockey

Friday: Ayr Western Meeting, Day Two

Ed Watson is our man basking in the sunshine on Scotland’s west coast for the Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup Festival. In the second of his daily previews, the Scottish Sun columnist and Racing TV analyst fancies a seasoned sprinter to make her class tell as the action cranks up towards tomorrow’s superb Gold Cup card.

UNCLE DON (3.05)

Now we know why we’ve not seen UNCLE DON for the best part of 11 weeks. He’s been coughing. What we have known for some time, however, is that form of his Beverley win has been getting franked over and again. Mostly by the runner-up Big Mojo, who won the Molecomb on his next start, and had since finished fourth in the Gimcrack and second in the Flying Childers. But also by the third, who dotted up in a Thirsk nursery recently.

Of course, Big Mojo has improved markedly since that debut on the Westwood, when he had to give best to a rival with invaluable experience already in the locker. Nevertheless, the way in which Uncle Don picked up for pressure to power home by a growing two-and-a-quarter lengths was deeply striking. It screamed Pattern potential. He gets a chance to fulfil that now in a race his trainer has won twice before, including in 2012 with subsequent Group 1 scorer Garswood.

While Uncle Don’s prep may not have been perfect, I’m encouraged by the positive noises being made about his current wellbeing by trainer Richard Fahey. The Middleham Park-owned colt looks the type to make another sizeable leap forward from second start to third, especially with Timeform’s forecast for a strong pace almost certainly giving this half-brother to the stable’s Malc - last season’s Norfolk runner-up - an ideal tow into the business end of the contest from a middle draw in box eight.

The Inside Word: “The poor horse was coughing for a while after his win at Beverley but we’ve had a clear run with him of late and he’s very fit and very well. He goes in deep here, it looks a strong renewal of the race, but the form of that win has worked out really well with Big Mojo, who was second, winning the Molecomb and finishing second in the Flying Childers, and Managing Director in third winning a nursery at Thirsk. He needs to improve and be right on his A-game to be involved in the finish, but I think there’s more to come.” - Richard Fahey, trainer

AZURE BLUE (3.40)

This looks a deeper renewal of this race than is sometimes the case, with five of the 13 runners bringing triple-digit official ratings to the table. As one of only two Group winners in the field, and the only one to score at Group 2 level, AZURE BLUE can stamp her class on this Listed race back against her own sex.

You need to be prepared to forgive Michael Dods’ mare an unusually poor run at York just 12 days ago. There are plausible excuses, though. Sustained rain turned the ground softer than she likes. She lost both front shoes beforehand. And she suffered two sideways shunts in quick succession which likely dented her rhythm and possibly her confidence too.

A drying week and warm temperatures on Scotland’s west coast should have the Ayr ground exactly as Azure Blue wants it. And she proved herself on this track by getting up late to snatch a share of the spoils in the Land O’Burns Stakes over 5f in June. A 3lb penalty for that Listed success means Azure Blue comes out slightly worse at the weights with tissue favourite Frost At Dawn, who was only a head behind Azure Blue in the Nunthorpe.

That is more than built into the prices, with Dods’ runner available to back at more than double the odds of William Knight’s Meydan Group 3 winner. The likely set-up of this race - with the speedy Woodhay Wonder drawn immediately next door in stall 12 - and extra 110 yards of this rarely-used 5½f trip should both play to Azure Blue’s strengths.

The Inside Word: “You can put a line through her last run at York, where everything that could have gone wrong did. She's come out of the race well. I sat on her last Saturday and she was moving better than ever. We came here for the 5f race in June with this race in mind as Michael thinks it will be perfect for her.” - Paul Mulrennan, jockey

ANNANDALE (5.20)

I’m not one for making a habit of backing horses who’ve not won in three years going back 23 races. But I am prepared to make an exception for ANNANDALE in the Friday finale. Well beaten in this race for each of the last two years, you have to trawl back to his victory in a better race over course and distance at this meeting in 2021 to find that most ‘recent’ win.

The six-year-old Australia gelding has been interestingly campaigned, to say the least, since returning for a second stint with Jim Goldie and making a belated seasonal reappearance last month.

He’s run four times in 40 days. The first two of those over 1m3f, the next two over just 1m. He’s been ridden by a pair of inexperienced jockeys - one an apprentice, the other an amateur - with a total of only 16 rides and zero wins between them. He’s caught my eye on a couple of those occasions, as well as those of the stewards.

Annandale’s mark has come down only 4lb for those four runs (he’s due to go down another 1lb from Saturday), but that merely makes him look even more attractively weighted having fallen 29lb from his peak mark of late-2021. Back up to a much more suitable trip and with Mulrennan now taking over the reins, this looks to be the right time to step in for a bet.

The Inside Word: “Ive not ridden him since he came back to Jim’s. He's put in a couple of OK runs this season and we're going back up to his last winning trip, so he should go well.” - Paul Mulrennan, jockey

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