The Nunthorpe Stakes is the big race at York on Friday and our man provides his selections for that and the rest of the Sky Bet Ebor Festival action.
- The long-standing Value Bet column is over 130pts in profit so far in 2022
- Winners this year include 50/1 Noble Yeats in the Grand National and Desert Crown at 25/1 (antepost) in the Derby
- Lord Riddiford (14/1) and Prairie Falcon (14/1) were both tipped at last month's Qatar Goodwood Festival
Value Bet tips: Friday August 19
1pt win Moktasaab in 1.50 York at 12/1 (William Hill)
1pt win Flotus in 3.35 York at 12/1 (Coral, bet365)
1pt win The Flying Ginger in 4.10 York at 28/1 (BetVictor, Coral)
Already advised:
FLOTUS has been on the radar for Coolmore Wootton Bassett Nunthorpe Stakes since her six-furlong win on the Knavesmire early last month and I’m in no mood to desert her now as her price has held up surprisingly well.
Rated 3lb higher than fellow three-year-old filly and much-vaunted favourite Royal Aclaim coming into this, it’s not the first time in her career that Simon and Ed Crisford’s horse has been underestimated as she was 11/1 when second to Tenebrism in last year’s Cheveley Park Stakes and 40/1 when third in the Commonwealth Cup this summer.
The final climb to the line caught her out at Ascot, but it was another fine run that came on the back of a neck second at Haydock to Sense Of Duty, who could yet prove to be a bit of an autumn star in the sprint division herself.
Getting back on a flat track really suited last time, Silvestre de Sousa – whose record on the daughter of Starspanglesbanner reads 11231, compared to 0624 when the Brazilian hasn’t been on board – really getting her rolling two and a half furlongs out and never looking in much danger thereafter.
She obviously prefers to lead and that’s far from guaranteed dropping back in trip against some real speedballs in Winter Power and Richard Fahey’s two-year-old The Platinum Queen, but The Platinum Queen has a relatively high draw in 13 and may have to burn too much energy to get into striking position towards the far-side rail.
Flotus, drawn in four, has the perfect sparring partner in last year’s winner Winter Power in the stall next door as Tim Easterby’s filly has been showing good speed before weakening, whereas Flotus just looks to be getting quicker and stronger as she matures.
I don’t envisage a return to the minimum trip causing a problem and she’s definitely still over-priced.
Friday's opening Sky Bet Handicap over a mile and a half is brilliantly competitive but double-figure odds about MOKTASAAB look quite tempting and he rates a bet.
Natural speed is a prerequisite over just about every distance around York, especially on drying ground, and while William Knight’s horse has yet to fully prove he stays the trip, loads of recent winners of this race were in the same boat coming into it.
The ex-Shadwell Moktasaab cost Harry Redknapp and co 110,000 guineas at the horses in training sale last autumn and he’s already looked a shrewd purchase having snared decent 10-furlong handicaps at Newbury and Goodwood at the start of the year.
He comes into this just 4lb higher than for the second of those wins and we can safely excuse him relatively low-key efforts at Epsom (hated the track) and Royal Ascot (looked to be feeling the quick ground) since then. He was back on song when third to Forest Falcon at Goodwood last month where he stayed on quite nicely in the closing stages despite racing a fraction keenly early on.
He’ll probably be dropped in here from his wide draw but the big-field scenario will really suit and that raw speed he clearly possesses should be a key asset in the home straight.
The other one to keep on side on Friday is Roger Fell’s THE FLYING GINGER, who bids for back-to-back wins in the Assured Data Protection EBF Fillies’ Handicap.
She was a shock (33/1) winner last August and is a big priced again in light of some pretty iffy form but she showed she was anything but a lost cause when third in Listed company at Pontefract three starts back and the drop back to a mile evidently didn’t suit at Haydock last time.
The key to her chances here is that not only does she seem to really like winging her way around the Knavesmire, but she could very easily poach a soft lead again, as was the case 12 months ago. Good American is a similarly free-going sort but she’s up three furlongs in trip so seems unlikely to be sent on from the outset.
Neil Callan might just get his own way on The Flying Ginger, who is 3lb out of the weights running off a BHA mark of 82 but has claimed her two most recent wins of 86 and 82 so evidently isn’t handicapped out of things by any means.
Published at 1600 BST on 18/08/22
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