Asjad is backed to win again this weekend
Asjad is backed to win again this weekend

Horse Racing Tips: Best value bets for Newmarket and Ascot


Matt Brocklebank previews the big betting races at Newmarket and Ascot this weekend and has three value bets to consider.


Value Bet tips: Saturday October 1

1pt win Kings Joy in 1.31 Newmarket at 14/1 (General)

1pt win Ainsdale in 1.51 Ascot at 8/1 (General)

1pt win Asjad in 3.36 Ascot at 14/1 (bet365, Coral)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook


Some good betting races to tackle at two of Britain’s premier tracks this Saturday and while the Group One Sun Chariot Stakes probably isn’t among them, Newmarket’s opening British EBF Premier Fillies’ Handicap has an appealing shape to it.

Al Husn may have her quirks but she’s the right favourite, up just 6lb for a relatively straightforward success (flashed her tail when winning at Kempton last year) here on the Rowley Mile two weeks ago. Her proven ability to handle the track is a big plus and she’s always hinted that a step up to 10 furlongs might be within her range.

Persist and Crystal Estrella have won over the distance already but at a bigger price I’ll take a chance on another tackling a mile and a quarter for the first time - namely John and Thady Gosden’s KINGS JOY.

She had a wide draw at Goodwood last time and was lit up having been forced to race three-wide heading into the first turn, so I can forgive her slightly weak finishing effort in sixth behind Crystal Caprice, who has won another handicap and finished third in Listed company since.

Prior to Goodwood, Kings Joy had looked to be crying out for more of a stamina test in two one-mile outings at Ascot, including the Sandringham at the Royal meeting where the ground was no doubt on the quick side for her too.

She’s seemingly drawn much better here in stall one, has had some time off which has hopefully helped her develop a little more physically, and she’s been given a helping hand by the handicapper who has dropped her another 1lb to a mark of 86. She was beaten a nose off 85 at Kempton in June and could be about to flourish for her in-form stable now granted the longer trip.

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There’s definitely a decent case to be made for the Gosden-trained Laurel in the aforementioned Sun Chariot as well but given she’s the lowest-rated horse in the line-up, it’s not like the unbeaten daughter of Kingman is being missed in the betting around the 6/1 mark.

Consequently, I’ll be looking to Ascot for the remainder of Saturday’s bets and heavy rain expected on Friday night should leave conditions ideal for AINSDALE who returns from a month off in the Oakman Inns Rous Stakes.

It looks a great time for him to be resuming too, not only due to the forecast, but the Julie Camacho yard has sent out a handful of winners across the past couple of weeks and presumably this son of Mayson has been going well at home.

He's yet to win at Listed level but has run some fantastic races in Group company for previous trainer Karl Burke, not least when beaten just a neck in last year's Temple Stakes at Haydock.

Restricted to just the two runs for Camacho this season on account of lively ground just about all year, he was fourth in the Chipchase won by Sense Of Duty at Newcastle in June and, after 63 days away, ran well from off the pace on good ground in the Beverley Bullet when last seen.

He can step up again on that form over this stiff five furlongs and it really is a case of more rain, the better.

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Hamish should be winning the Cumberland Lodge if his scrap with Kyprios hasn’t left a mark and Rohaan holds outstanding form claims in the Bengough Stakes, another Group race I’ll gladly pass over when it comes to parting with my cash.

The Peroni Nastro Azzuro Challenge Cup is a good betting heat, though, and I’m surprised to see ASJAD and Mums Tipple at such big prices after they filled the first two places in a six and a half-furlong handicap on soft ground at Doncaster’s Leger meeting.

I was counting my cash for a moment as Mums Tipple (tipped on these pages) looked to have been delivered in good time, only for Asjad to come through late and ultimately win a shade cosily (replay below).

James Horton’s horse (bought from Shadwell for 80,000 guineas) had looked really promising earlier in the year when there was still some juice in the ground (won at Redcar and York) and he clearly lost his way on quicker terrain when down the field in the Wokingham and International Stakes here.

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Evidently back in the groove and up just 3lb for the latest win, the decision to skip the Ayr Gold Cup and come here over seven furlongs might just pay off, despite seemingly having enough to find with Fresh from when they last met in the International in July.

The draw (12) looks to have been kind as the stalls are on the stands’ side, though Asjad is tactically versatile and probably won’t be played until quite late so Stevie Donohoe should be able to plot the best route through.

Published at 1500 BST on 30/09/22


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