Horse Racing Tips: Best value bets for Leopardstown Irish Champions Weekend on Saturday

By Matt Brocklebank

16:22 · SAT September 10, 2022

Our man previews the opening day of Irish Champions Weekend at Leopardstown with a couple of selections, including a new starter for Joseph O'Brien.

Value Bet tips: Saturday September 10

1pt win Final Voyage in 2.05 Leopardstown at 20/1 (Coral, bet365)

0.5pts win Statement in 4.20 Leopardstown at 18/1 (General)

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True Champion in the making?

The Irish Champion Stakes takes top billing at Leopardstown on Saturday and all eyes on returning Coral-Eclipse winner Vadeni who could yet tempt connections into a shot at next month’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

A potential move up to 12 furlongs at Longchamp would bring stamina fears into play but regardless of future movements, the mile and a quarter this weekend really suits Jean-Claude Rouget’s colt as a sharp turn of foot is clearly his most dangerous weapon.

He's odds-on in a few places at the time of writing and looks plenty short enough despite the obvious appeal.

Mishriff, generally 4/1, is not the sort of horse to be writing off in a hurry and he was in all likelihood back to something like his very best when chasing home Baaeed at York. It’s hard to argue he wasn’t unlucky in the Eclipse before disappointing in the King George and the booking of Colin Keane is a suitably punchy move from John and Thady Gosden ahead of this particular assignment.

On pure value grounds, the Fabrice Chappet-trained Onesto looks to be flying under the radar, largely down to his high-profile compatriot. The pair of them featured in the same Group Three contest at Longchamp back in April, Vadeni finishing fifth and Onesto eighth after they were both held up off the pace.

Vadeni again had Onesto well in arrears (fifth, beaten almost seven lengths) when running away with the Prix du Jockey Club, but stall two was a significant advantage for the winner, with Onesto doing well in the circumstances having been posted out in 14 and never able to get into a challenging position.

He’s since won the Grand Prix de Paris over a mile and a half in taking fashion, emerging from the back of the small field to mow down Simca Mille (runs in Sunday's Prix Niel), who had enjoyed an easy lead.

The bare form doesn’t match up to that of Vadeni or Mishriff, but Simca Mille had won his previous three starts, including at Group Three level, and third home El Bodegon, who had followed home Vadeni in the Jockey Club, has since finished third to Deauville Legend in the Great Voltigeur, so it's far from worthless.

Bred to be a real champion, sired by Frankel out of a Sea The Stars mare, Onesto may get away with a drop back in trip at Leopardstown, but a combination of his often exaggerated hold-up tactics, together with a lack of pace in the race in general, is enough to put me off parting with my cash on this occasion. He's probably one to stay positive about with the Arc in mind.

Set sail with Murtagh recruit

There’s plenty to go at on the Leopardstown undercard thankfully and FINAL VOYAGE shouldn’t be missed in the Irish Stallion Farms EBF 'Sovereign Path' Handicap.

Johnny Murtagh is a master at preparing horses for these premier handicaps and while British recruit Final Voyage obviously hasn’t been the easiest to handle, having made just the two starts for his new yard since making the move from James Tate in the spring, he was a massive eyecatcher at Dundalk last month.

That came on the back of a 121-day break, the horse having made an encouraging start in Ireland when fifth to Punk Poet at Cork back in April.

Dropping to six furlongs for the first time since his 2020 debut the other week at Dundalk, the four-year-old found himself too far back in the early stages and could only run on for fifth after picking off tiring rivals without being given too much of a hard time by Shane Kelly in the saddle.

Given his fine all-weather record (5-12) in the UK it would be reasonable to assume he’ll be back plying his trade at Dundalk throughout the majority of the winter but it’s significant Murtagh has opted to target this pot first, and he gets to race off a 3lb lower mark (89) on the grass which can only help.

Murtagh saddled the runner-up Lord Rapscallion in this a couple of years ago as well as the fifth, Riot, after a very similar all-weather prep 12 months ago, so it smacks of a well-hatched plan and this horse has presumably taken his recent run well.

Make a Statement in Boomerang

The Coolmore America 'Justify' Matron Stakes is a race to savour with proven Group One four-year-old giving 5lb to Dermot Weld’s star youngster Homeless Songs, who produced one of the jaw-dropping performances of the season so far when sprinting away from Tuesday to win the Irish 1,000 Guineas in emphatic fashion.

She’s had lots of time off since then, but that’s not a huge concern as Weld has typically waited for his string to start firing on all cylinders again before bringing her back to the fold, and we could see something special if she’s improved again since the springtime.

After initially thinking last year’s second Pearls Galore could be over-priced, I’m happy to leave the race alone but her new stablemate Just Beautiful looks an interesting filly starting out for Paddy Twomey against very gettable favourite Jadoomi in the Clipper Logistics Boomerang Mile.

Just Beautiful hasn't been seen at all this season but ended last year with a defeat of Double Or Bubble (Highfield Princess was back in fourth) at Doncaster and is likely to be tuned to the minute for this belated comeback.

She hasn’t been missed in the market around 9/2, though, and at a big price I’m drawn to STATEMENT, who also debuts for a new yard having moved to Joseph O’Brien from Kevin Ryan in the summer.

Initially in the care of Martyn Meade, for whom she won a maiden and finished a short-head second to Alcohol Free in the 2021 Fred Darling, Statement had seemingly lost her way by the end of last year but was much more like it when fourth on her seasonal return at Epsom this June.

Despite not looking in love with the track, the daughter of Lawman was beaten four lengths into fourth in the Group Three Princess Elizabeth Stakes, and it’ll be fascinating to see if O’Brien can really rekindle those fires from her youth.

Rain through the week will definitely play to her strengths and she could get quite a strong pace to try and chase down here courtesy of Just Beautiful, Boundless Ocean and the market leader, Jadoomi.

She’s worth a small interest at 18/1.

Published at 1500 BST on 09/09/22

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