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Horse Racing Tips: Best value bets for Glorious Goodwood on Thursday
Matt Brocklebank is having a profitable week at Goodwood and he has four fresh recommendations for the third day of the Festival on Thursday.
Value Bet tips: Thursday July 28
1pt win Swift Asset in 2.25 Goodwood at 20/1 (bet365)
1pt win Masekela in 3.00 Goodwood at 16/1 (General)
1pt win Prairie Falcon in 4.10 Goodwood at 14/1 (General)
1pt win Le Beau Garcon in 4.45 Goodwood at 9/1 (General)
Already advised:
Asset effort should be marked up
The Qatar Goodwood Festival continues to produce interesting, competitive fields and I had quite a job in whittling down the staking plan ahead of day three on Thursday afternoon.
One who was always going to make the cut is SWIFT ASSET as he’s surely over-priced for trainer Richard Hannon in the Group Two Richmond Stakes. This is a race the Hannon yard has won six times over the years and the unexposed Swift Asset comes into it having not being seen to best effect from stall one in the Weatherbys Super Sprint last time.
Although sharply away under Pat Dobbs, he found himself racing in a group of just two towards the far-side rail for most of the Newbury contest, and given the horse who initially kept him company ended up second-last at 100/1, Swift Asset did really well in the circumstances, finishing sixth overall.
The form of that performance – which already reads nicely enough after 12th home Dare To Hope was second in a York nursery off 86 last weekend – clearly wants marking up on account of how the race unfolded, and it’s also worth remembering he was also giving five horses that beat him weight on that occasion.
While the son of Profitable still has a mountain to climb in against Chateau and Royal Scotsman, who both ran well at Royal Ascot, the potential is there for him to climb much higher. He’d looked the part when opening his account in a Windsor maiden towards the end of June and the very fact he’s been aimed at this race speaks volumes.
I struggled to get past Vee Sight in the opening Coral Kincsem Handicap. The manner in which he finished off over the stiff nine furlongs at Sandown last month left the distinct impression he’d be better over this far (will probably stay even further in time), while the Sandown third and fourth winning since puts a bit of gloss on the performance too.
The son of Churchill looks very well handicapped despite going up 8lb from 74 to 82 but with his price appearing no more than fair, I’ll swerve the race entirely with plenty to get stuck into at juicier odds elsewhere.
Mas appeal for in-form Balding
After lengthy deliberation, I’m inclined to take a more active interest in the John Pearce Racing Gordon Stakes, with MASEKELA – the only previous course winner in the line-up – worth excusing his Bahrain Trophy flop.
He was far too keen early on at Newmarket before beginning his challenge towards the centre of the course as the three who fought out the finish stayed closer to the stands’ side rail.
He’ll have to settle a lot better but this track might just be enough to keep him interested (ran a belter at Epsom when fourth in the Derby), and the general 16/1 looks too big despite market leader New London boasting a very appealing profile by comparison.
I’m already invested in Lilac Road each-way against Nashwa in the Qatar Nassau Stakes and couldn’t put anyone off William Haggas’ hard-knocking filly, though the antepost price is obviously long gone.
Falcon to take flight up in distance
The Jaeger-Lecoultre Nursery Handicap seems likely to be run at a very strong gallop and fully staying the seven-furlong will be imperative. Miss Jungle Cat looked to win with her ears pricked at York last time and she’s arguably the one to beat up just 6lb, provided the cheekpieces have the desired effect second time around, but I can’t resist a dart at PRAIRIE FALCON.
The obvious concern for the son of Belardo is that the ground comes up too quick but they’ve clearly been putting plenty of water down overnight and if he lines up then Michael Dods' colt looks a great bet.
In short, he’s been crying out for a step up in trip all along, having raced purely over six furlongs to this point, and his pedigree would back that up as he’s a half-brother to mile winners and his dam was a seven-furlong winner at two (she’s a half-sister to a winning miler as well).
The penultimate effort at Ayr was particularly striking as it looked like he might get left behind before really finding his stride inside the final half-furlong, and it was a similar story at the same venue earlier this month, ultimately beaten under two lengths after doing his best work late on.
Stall five should allow Hollie Doyle every chance to place him where she wants early on and if he gets a trouble-free passage after turning for home I don’t think there’ll be many finishing off as well as this horse. He was being backed throughout Wednesday afternoon but still rates a bet at anything north of 12/1.
Garcon has lots more to offer
Finally, back fellow northern raider LE BEAU GARCON in the World Pool Handicap over five furlongs.
His jockey Paul Mulrennan is superb from off the pace when there’s a strong pace to chase in sprint handicaps and, draw highest of all in stall 14, should be relishing this challenge with the rapid trio of Resilience, Kape Moss and Sophie’s Star breaking just inside from 10, 12 and 13 respectively.
There’s a bit of early in the low numbers too but I’d be amazed if the stands’ side didn’t hold the key and Le Beau Garcon – twice a winner on fast ground in novice company as a juvenile - looked seriously unlucky not to win when having to settle for second behind Sophie’s Star after being badly hampered then carried across the track at Musselburgh on his seasonal comeback.
He didn’t seem ideally suited by a first crack at six furlongs on the July Course at Newmarket last time and should be much more at home back over the minimum here, while the assessor dropping him 2lb for the HQ run means he’s only 2lb higher than at Musselburgh.
Published at 1500 BST on 27/07/22
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