The Flat season gets under way at Doncaster this weekend and Matt Brocklebank has previewed the big races on Town Moor, with a tip for Kempton also recommended.
Value Bet tips: Saturday March 29
0.5pts e.w. Farasi Lane in 1.50 Doncaster at 20/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt win Teumessias Fox in 2.40 Kempton at 8/1 (bet365)
1pt win Whip Cracker in 3.35 Doncaster at 14/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral, BetVictor)
1pt win Magnum Opus in 3.35 Doncaster at 16/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral, bet36, BetVictor)
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Karl Burke’s stock seemed to rise to unprecedented highs last year, his yard enjoying 15 European Group-race victories throughout 2024, including an Irish Classic, and the Middleham man looks a central figure on the opening day of the new Flat campaign at Doncaster.
Stable stalwarts Marshman and Liberty Lane have solid claims in the Cammidge and Doncaster Mile respectively, while returning four-year-old Thunder Run tops the betting at a general 5/1 for the William Hill Lincoln.
This is a very straightforward horse, who wears no headgear and has yet to run a bad race in his life, including when fourth as 7/2 favourite in the Balmoral Handicap on Champions Day when last seen in the autumn.
Drying ground looks a plus point for him and I wouldn’t be reading too much into his high draw in stall 19 as Thunder Run tends to travel strongly close to the pace so Clifford Lee will presumably look to keep things as simple as possible and not rely on others drawn close by in order to tee the race up for him.
Whether the well-backed favourite is up to defying a mark of 100 on his comeback is the crunch question and if so then he’s probably going to be among those bidding to add to Burke’s Group-race haul as the 2025 season develops. Time will tell, clearly.
Much further down the weights, Old Cock is a fascinating project for Ed Bethell as he’s equally unexposed after just half a dozen starts himself, but the best bets against an obvious one like Thunder Run are probably those who are guaranteed to be race-fit after relatively recent prep runs.
Orandi winning the Irish Lincoln could hardly be classed as a ‘prep’ but he won quite stylishly in the end and his form in big-field handicaps in general is highly encouraging ahead of the follow-up mission this weekend.
I’m far from convinced the 5lb penalty he carries for the Curragh win 13 days prior will prevent another bold bid from Orandi, but I’m backing two at slightly bigger prices, starting with the Richard Hughes-trained WHIP CRACKER.
As highlighted by John Ingles earlier in the week, Hughes had his horses in great condition last spring and it’s notable that Whip Cracker was given a spin in the Lincoln Trial Handicap at Wolverhampton earlier in the month.
Favourite-backers on the day might take an alternative view on reflection, but he couldn’t really have run a better race with Doncaster in mind as he raced keenly with the choke out after the early pace-setters jammed the brakes on.
Never nearer than when a length and a quarter down at the line, the son of Cracksman really was finishing with purpose, after being forced to switch in the straight, and with the initial freshness now out of him, I’d like to think we’ll see a more polished performance if getting the splits and a decent pace to chase on this occasion.
I suppose it could be argued that Whip Cracker shaped nicely when second to Jayarebe on his comeback last year before not quite kicking on as hoped, but he was pitched into some hot races to be fair and just looks a more tractable, mature character now having been gelded last summer. Just like those right at the head of the betting, he looks an ideal type for the top mile handicaps this time around.
The other one with recent form who intrigues me at the prices is MAGNUM OPUS for the Crisfords.
He’s had a previous look over the course and distance last year, running well when fifth (of 14) behind the 2022 Lincoln winner Johan back in September, and while he returns to Doncaster with a higher mark to overcome, he’s clearly improved again with headgear back on over the winter and is technically well-in on these terms.
Magnum Opus was beaten a short-head at Southwell in November and has been kept on the go out in Dubai, running some cracking races including a neck victory at Meydan in February.
Last seen staying on strongly and beaten just a length by the well-treated Silver Sword over a mile at the same venue 22 days ago, he comes here with a 5lb penalty for the earlier win and effectively competes off a mark (96) 3lb lower than his revised BHA rating.
He’s still totally unexposed in the visor, while every passing minute that the sun shines down in South Yorkshire is going to bring his sharp turn of foot more and more into play.
Lane worth small play in consolation
The William Hill Bet 10 Get 10 Spring Mile Handicap looks a bit of a betting minefield and I’m going to try and tread very carefully with a small each-way bet on FARASI LANE, another from the Wolverhampton Trial.
He doesn’t really enjoy extremes of going on the turf but should be fine in these conditions and doesn’t look handicapped out of it by any means running off 88, having recorded his last four career wins from marks of 85, 82, 82 and 89.
The last in that sequence came at Kempton around this time last year on his second start of the 2024 campaign and, after a comeback fourth at Southwell, he almost repeated the trick when beaten in a photo at Wolves earlier this month.
He tends to travel quite strongly through his races and, from stall two, should get a decent tow into things from the likely pace-enforcers also drawn in single-figures such as Spirit Of Acklam and One Night Thunder.
Farasi Lane is a seven-year-old now and hardly possesses the sexy sort of profile most punters will be looking for in a valuable Saturday handicap, but he’s not been with current connections all that long and clearly retains plenty of enthusiasm.
The booking of Kieran Shoemark, who has form figures of 622107 on the horse) strikes me as a bit of a statement of intent too.
Fox to pounce on Kempton comeback
Soprano and the returning Shuwari – a one-time Classic fancy for Ollie Sangster – are the stars on show at Kempton in the Virgin Bet Snowdrop Fillies’ Stakes, but the Rosebery Handicap is a more competitive betting race.
Andrew Balding saddled the disappointing 9/4 favourite (Old Harrovian) in this last year and looks like being responsible for one of the market leaders again in Mount Atlas.
However, preference is for Oisin Murphy-ridden stablemate TEUMESSIAS FOX, whose last Kempton outing yielded a handicap win over a similar trip last January. That took his course record to 2-3, having also won here early on in the campaign in 2023.
Barring a close-up fourth at Windsor in August, his season petered out quite dramatically after the win here at the start of the year but his mark has come down accordingly and there’s no question he can be extremely competitive off a mark of 100 if resuming somewhere near his peak.
He’s won when fresh in the past which obviously bodes well and I love the fact there are four or five genuine pace horses drawn around him as hopefully he can settle into a nice rhythm mid-pack before mounting a challenge when those free-going types are beginning to cry enough.
The third Balding runner, Lieber Power, who runs in the same King Power colours, doesn’t look particularly well handicapped but might be able to hit the frame too if he finds the race falling apart a bit late on.
Published at 1600 GMT on 28/03/25
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