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Horse Racing Tips: Best Value Bets for Ascot and Haydock on Saturday August 10
Andrew Asquith steps in for Matt Brocklebank in this week's Value Bet column and has three recommended bets at Ascot and Haydock.
Andrew Asquith Value Bet tips: Saturday August 10
2pts win Theme Park in 2.25 Haydock at 7/1 (William Hill)
1pt win Tacarib Bay in 4.30 Ascot at 20/1 (General)
1pt win Dora Milaje in 4.45 Haydock at 25/1 (General)
The Shergar Cup is very much a ‘marmite’ meeting, some love it, some hate it. I’m neither here nor there in truth, but I've only managed to find on bet on the card.
It comes in the lucky last, the Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Mile, and the horse I’ve landed on is the Richard Hannon-trained TACARIB BAY.
He ended a losing run with an excellent effort over six furlongs in Listed company at Newcastle in November, beating a highly-regarded filly and Albasheer, who went on to win his next two starts in handicaps, the latest from a BHA mark of 105 where he beat the ultra-consistent Billyjoh.
Admittedly, Tacarib Bay hasn’t gone on from that success as might have been expected, and his recent form figures are far from inspiring. He didn’t run too badly at Newcastle two starts back, though, drawn away from where the action unfolded and plugging on despite being away from the principals throughout the race.
The same can be said for his nearer-last-than-first effort in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. He raced in the unfavoured far-side group on that occasion, who were miles behind the stand-side one and at a clear disadvantage given the pace on the far side.
Tacarib Bay didn’t really threaten the principals in that group, either, but ran creditably under the circumstances, and it may be he's ready for a return to a mile now. He has plenty of solid form on the straight course at Ascot, but this will be his first time racing on the round, and that also may perk up his interest in the race.
Tacarib Bay is now down to a career-low mark and has been used to contesting races with a little more depth to them than this, while his jockey, Tadhg O’Shea, has plenty of experience round here and rode a nice winner at Lingfield on Monday. There should be a sound pace to aim at with the likes of Spirit Catcher and Tempus in the field and he has the ability to run a big race having been freshened up for a yard among the winners.
Over at Haydock, I thought THEME PARK would be one of the favourites in the opening handicap over a mile, so he looks a good bet at around the 13/2 mark.
He started life in handicaps from a mark of 86 last year and ran some crackers in defeat in some very competitive three-year-old events at York on fast ground. He went on to bump into the ultra-progressive Balance Play over a mile and a quarter at Chester afterwards and ran his best race of last season when beaten a neck by a less-exposed sort back on the Knavesmire.
Since then, he has been a little hit and miss, but it is worth noting his poor runs this season have come on easy ground, and he bounced right back to form to take advantage of a career-low mark over an extended seven furlongs at York a fortnight ago.
The return to fast ground clearly helped and he can be marked up further for that effort given the amount of ground he made up in a slowly-run race where it paid to be on the pace. Theme Park didn’t look like he’d threaten around two furlongs out, but he found plenty in the final furlong, finishing with a real flourish to be comfortably on top at the line.
His final three-furlong sectional (33.77) was much faster than all of his rivals, the only horse in that race to run faster than 34 seconds (by some way, too) and of the other races on the card (which featured a class 2 six-furlong handicap and a five furlong handicap) the only horse who ran a faster closing three-furlong sectional was Alflaila (33.49) who won the Group 2 Sky Bet York Stakes which was run at a dawdle and turned into a sprint for home.
Therefore, on the sectional data, a subsequent 4lb rise in the weights could underestimate him greatly, while he also has solid form from higher marks in the past. Theme Park is drawn well, is likely to get a strong pace to aim at, and he should be suited by this track which has some similarities to York.
I was disappointed when my Weekend View selection in the Dick Hern Stakes wasn’t declared on Thursday, but it is still a race I want to get involved in as I think you can pick holes in the three-year-olds at the top of the market along with some other fancied runners.
In my opinion, Indelible is ready for a bigger test of stamina now, American Arrow has a mountain to climb based on what she achieved on her debut, Caernarfon is at her best when the mud is flying, and I think Choisya is a better horse on the all-weather.
You have to respect Naomi Lapaglia based on her latest effort when third to Friendly Soul in a Group 3 at Ascot, but the horse who takes my eye is DORA MILAJE, who is currently the outsider of the field.
She is a lightly-raced four-year-old, who had some strong form in a short campaign last season, and she built on the promise of her runner-up effort in a competitive, big-field handicap at Wetherby when opening her account for the year over a mile and a quarter at this course in June.
There was a lot to like about that performance, looking like a horse who is ready for a higher level, travelling all over her rivals (arguably a little too keen) and overcoming trouble in-running to be cosily on top at the line.
Dora Milaje hasn’t managed to make her mark in Listed company the last twice, but she was ridden too aggressively back at a mile in soft ground when fourth to Caernarfon at Pontefract, and the horse who she forced the pace with ended up finishing tailed off in last position, so it wasn't that bad of a run on the face of it. I'd fancy her to reverse that form now on much better ground provided she is ridden more patiently.
She also shaped as though still in top form back over a mile and a quarter at York last time, travelling into the race best of all, still on the bridle under two furlongs out, but finding less than looked likely. Dora Milaje again was a little keen in the first half of the race, and I think the return to a mile round here, where she looked so impressive earlier in the season, should be right up her street.
The ground will be perfect for her and I’d imagine Indelible and Strutting will likely go forward, so the pace should hopefully be sound, and I just think she doesn’t deserve to be the outsider of the field on how she’s been shaping and what she’s already achieved.
- Preview posted 1500 BST on 09/08/2024
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