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Horse Racing Tips: Best outsiders and value bets for Royal Ascot

By Matt Brocklebank

17:49 · THU June 16, 2022

It's day two of the Royal meeting and our man is on the hunt for more big-priced winners.

Recent Value Bet winners: Desert Crown (25/1 antepost), Swilcan Bridge (14/1, 20p R4), Tees Spirit (12/1) - column over 140 points in profit for 2022...

Value Bet Royal Ascot tips: Wednesday June 15

1pt win Manhattan Jungle in 2.30 Royal Ascot at 33/1 (bet365)

1pt e.w. Greatgadian in 5.00 Royal Ascot at 25/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt win Don’t Tell Claire in 6.10 Royal Ascot at 28/1 (General)

Already advised:

1pt win Toshizou in Royal Hunt Cup at 20/1 - NR

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

French flavour to day-two opener?

Karl Burke has had a brilliant time of things with his juvenile fillies so far this season and looks to have a strong hand in Wednesday’s Royal Ascot opener, the Queen Mary Stakes.

However, it’s not like Dramatised has been missed in the market and, at around 3/1, she’s priced up on reputation to some extent – despite the Newmarket maiden she won at the end of April working out well since – while stablemate Yahsat, on whom I was slightly keener at the odds prior to final declarations, is drawn near the far wing in stall three which might not be ideal.

She should at least have something very smart to aim at with Wesley Ward’s wide-margin Keeneland winner Love Reigns just a couple of boxes away in five, but I think the value may lie on the other side of the track and Amy Murphy’s MANHATTAN JUNGLE at a huge price.

She’s been housed at Murphy’s well-publicised satellite yard just outside Chantilly since March and has gone about her business in great fashion, winning three times over there, all at the minimum trip.

Last month the daughter of Bungle Inthejungle won a small Listed contest with a bright turn of foot from the front at Vichy, not needing to come under anything like serious pressure, and it was interesting to note the trainer’s comments regarding the underfoot conditions that day.

The official going description was ‘soft’ but Timeform called it ‘good to soft’, while Murphy herself is on record stating she walked the course and reckoned it was actually ‘quick’ ground.

The way this filly - who is now owned by last year’s Queen Mary winners Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners (Quick Suzy) - really points her toe suggests she could be just as comfortable going a good clip across this week’s relatively fast terrain, and her experience should certainly stand her in good stead when asked for her effort. She rates a bet at 25/1 or bigger.

On the hunt for handicap value

The next three races on the day-two card aren’t very punter-friendly but the Royal Hunt Cup is a magnificent betting heat and there are a handful of horses towards the bottom who wouldn’t have made the cut had they not picked up recent penalties for winning.

They include impressive Nottingham scorer Dark Shift, who has some nice course form here and should relish the big field scenario. He’s yet to encounter ground this quick, though, so isn’t too hard to oppose at the prices, while a drop of rain might have helped Rebel Territory and Totally Charming as well.

Closer to the top of the weights than the bottom, GREATGADIAN - one of three in this for trainer Roger Varian - could be the horse to be on having looked an improved model since returning as a gelding this season.

He lost his way somewhat after winning quite stylishly over the extended mile (good to firm) at Nottingham last summer but has evidently turned it around over the winter based on his Chelmsford form this spring.

The comeback win was clearly expected as he justified favouritism in comfortable fashion, while last time he managed to defy a 6lb rise by reeling in subsequent winner Peter The Great who had enjoyed an easy time of things out in front – the pair finishing nearly five lengths clear of the third.

Both victories have come over 10 furlongs but I do love a horse who stays further in this particular cavalry charge and the all-weather form can often translate very well too, though we already know he handles this track as he was third to subsequent Group-race winner La Barrosa on his debut here in 2020.

Greatgadian is up another 4lb in the ratings but still has lots of potential and makes almost as much appeal as stablemate Legend Of Dubai, who is a 9/1 shot at the time of writing. He’s also drawn next to one of the strongest pace angles in Isla Kai (12) so shouldn’t be far away from the thick of the action in stall 11.

Whisper it quietly...

With Windsor Castle Stakes favourite Little Big Bear drawn so low it could be worth taking a flier on one at a price more towards the stands’ side, and Guiteau is an interesting runner for David Loughnane.

He really should have won first time out, when getting a troubled passage at Windsor before bombing home to be beaten a short-head, and his dam’s half-brother Louis The Pious claimed his most famous success on the straight track here in the Buckingham Palace a few years ago.

The son of James Garfield does have a mountain to climb on bare form terms after just one public appearance, though, and he’ll probably find this a sharp enough test dropping back from the six furlongs he ran over first time out.

Loughnane had the one-two in the concluding Kensington Palace Stakes last year and 2021 runner-up Ffion is back for another bite of the cherry off an 8lb higher mark following a comeback win on soft ground at Chester’s May meeting.

She looks to have improved again and can’t be ruled out given her overall consistency but they’ve all got a bit of a job on here against Improvised, who is officially 10lb well-in for this after splitting rivals rated 93 and 96 in a Listed race at Musselburgh just 10 days ago.

Punters have latched onto her and rightly so, but at a much bigger price I like the claims of DON’T TELL CLAIRE.

She was only fifth to Soft Whisper in a traditionally red-hot fillies’ handicap (last year’s winner Lights On ran in Tuesday’s Queen Anne) here last month, but it looked like a bit of a sharpener to get her match-fit and she’s been eased a pound in the ratings which is a bonus.

Her progression last season came over the mile trip, including quite an impressive victory at this track on fast ground in September, form that worked out well with the second, third and fourth all winning subsequently.

The seventh home, Serenading, has won twice since then and reopposes again on Wednesday having been fourth in the same Ascot event in which Don’t Tell Claire made her reappearance, but the latter looks more likely to appreciate going around the bend on this occasion, and using her potent turn of foot to good effect.

Stall 16 is no doubt wider than ideal but Timeform expect a ‘very strong’ pace given the amount of early speed drawn down on the inside and that will hopefully help tee things up for those forced to slot in and play their hand later.

Joseph O’Brien’s Neptune Rock was the other on the shortlist with that pace set-up in mind and she could get a lovely tow into things if breaking well enough from the inside stall, but she probably doesn’t have much - if anything - in hand from a BHA mark of 95, so I’ll settle on the one bet in the last.

Published at 1700 BST on 14/06/22

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