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Horse Racing Tips: Best outsiders and value bets for Royal Ascot on Thursday

By Matt Brocklebank

Horse Racing

Thu June 16, 2022 · 2y ago

Our man looks ahead to a fiercely competitive day's action at Royal Ascot and has four big-priced selections to consider.

Matt's recent Value Bet winners: Desert Crown (25/1 antepost), Swilcan Bridge (14/1, 20p R4), Tees Spirit (12/1) - column over 140 points in profit for 2022...

Value Bet Royal Ascot tips: Thursday June 16

1pt win Crispy Cat in 2.30 Royal Ascot at 12/1 (William Hill, Coral, Ladbrokes)

1pt win Deauville Legend in 3.05 Royal Ascot at 16/1 (BetVictor, Unibet)

1pt e.w. Koy Koy in 5.00 Royal Ascot at 20/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4)

1pt e.w. Star Of Orion in 6.10 Royal Ascot at 25/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Take Ferguson to get back on track

Thursday’s King George V Stakes looks one of toughest races of the entire week with very few of the unexposed three-year-olds worth ruling out in a hurry.

Aidan O’Brien mentioned Newfoundland in the same breath as the Cazoo Derby at the start of the year and he’s evidently finally starting to put it all together after opening his account at the fourth time of asking when last seen.

He had to overcome traffic problems that day and was value for more than the bare margin (length and a half), but it was still only a pretty weak Navan maiden so we can surely cast the net a little wider in a race as deep as this.

Mark Johnston has won it five times in the past and it could be noteworthy the yard - which has sent out at least two runners in this for the past six seasons - relies solely on Achnamara, who definitely remains on an upward curve despite suffering a narrow defeat at Doncaster when bidding to follow up his taking Beverley success.

I’ve a slight suspicion the Johnston three-year-olds generally aren’t quite on the same level as in recent seasons, though, while the initial reaction to Schmilsson being a 28/1 shot was that he looked a bit big in the betting.

However, Andrew Balding’s Bath maiden winner (well-held third won a minor fillies’ handicap at Leicester since) has yet to be tried on good to firm ground and his high-class half-sister Izzi Top much preferred some dig underfoot which is just a little off-putting – rightly or wrongly.

The best bet could be DEAUVILLE LEGEND, who has been laid out for this since making a winning comeback in a Windsor maiden towards the end of April.

Trainer James Ferguson has gone completely cold since then (0-28 through May and June so far) but there have been one or two signs in the past fortnight that things could be about to change for the better, including stable star El Bodegon proving his Dante flop all wrong when second in the Prix du Jockey Club.

It must have been very tempting to get Deauville Legend out and on the handicap path before now but connections have shrewdly sat on their hands and could be about to be rewarded as I’ve no doubt he’s got a bit up his sleeve from an opening mark of 89.

Even going back to his sole start at two – when fourth at Haydock behind a couple of horses that now boast triple-figure ratings (New Kingdom and Dark Moon Rising) – he looks on a very fair mark and I loved how he broke his duck over 10 furlongs last time out, beating Charlie Appleby’s Cosmic Desert who hasn’t let the form down by finishing a close third in a good novice at Lingfield since (fifth from that race has come out and won subsequently).

Deauville Legend looked all class at Windsor, sitting handily and settling into a nice rhythm before quickly putting it to bed in the straight. He was powering into the line despite being eased close home and the step up to a mile and a half here could bring out considerable further improvement.

It certainly will if his pedigree is anything to go by as he’s by Sea The Stars out of a Hernando mare, while his full-sister Sea La Rosa just won the Group Three Pinnacle Stakes over this trip last month.

If he were trained by Haggas or the Gosdens he’d be half the price, but that’s something I’m willing to swallow as he looks quite exciting in his own right.

I’ve various concerns about most of them in the Gold Cup so won’t be pushed into choosing between Kyprios and Stradivarius, who look to have it sewn up on this ground, while the Ribblesdale was never really going to be my sort of race even if they had risked Emily Upjohn and the quick turnaround. Roger Varian's Mukaddamah is probably the bet but her price has tightened a bit and it's a trappy enough race.

Cream to rise to the top...

The major eyecatcher in the Norfolk Stakes is that Karl Burke has deemed Pillow Talk savvy enough to take on the boys rather than step up in trip for the Albany and it could be an inspired move, especially after already winning Wednesday's Queen Mary with Dramatised - his juvenile fillies are clearly top-notch.

Walbank looked a fair bet at the end of last week but his price has contracted markedly on the back of several favourable reports and the inclination now is to have a dart at the other Amo Racing-owned colt in the field, CRISPY CAT.

He’s a fraction more exposed after three starts but has barely put a foot wrong, winning his Cork maiden before a short-head second to Tuesday’s Coventry Stakes fourth Blackbeard and a neck second to Wednesday’s Queen Mary Stakes third Maria Branwell.

The Sandown second looked a shade unlucky as he showed a great burst of speed to take it up between the two and the one-furlong marker, before just being worn down by the filly, to whom he was conceding 5lb.

Expected to enjoy this first taste of fast ground and by Ardad, who sired last year’s Norfolk winner (Perfect Power) as well as the Coventry third (Vintage Clarets) in his first season with runners on the ground, Crispy Cat has plenty to recommend him at a double-figure price.

Don't be Koy over Balding bet

I’ve been looking forward to the return of KOY KOY since his unfortunate second at Chester’s May Festival and the fact the ground has come up as it has looks a boost to his Britannia Stakes claims.

We don’t know for sure he’ll improve for good to firm going but he won his novice on good at Newbury last season and most of Acclamation’s best progeny have absolutely relished a genuine summer surface – think Equiano, Expert Eye, Romantic Warrior, Mehmas and Oh This Is Us to name a handful.

Racing on good to soft for the first time on the Roodee, Koy Koy slipped on leaving the stalls and lost vital early ground which is usually curtains around there, and so it proved.

He still ran on strongly to finish a length second behind Outgate, who has franked the form with a good third in the Silver Bowl at Haydock and a valuable handicap victory back at Chester last Saturday.

He’s gone up 10lb to 98 now with Koy Koy raised only 3lb despite shaping like the best horse in the race, with much more to offer when stepped up to a mile. He gets that here and is Timeform’s fourth highest-rated (with a small ‘p’ to boot) which suggests he’s being seriously underestimated in the market.

Second time out the time to strike

STAR OF ORION stands out at the prices in the Buckingham Palace Stakes, having been eased a couple of pounds to a mark of 98 on the back of his perfectly creditable comeback run behind Vafortino over this course and distance last month.

That’s just 1lb higher than when beaten a short-head by Danyah against older horses in the International Stakes – also run over the course and distance – last July, while I can excuse his relatively poor earlier effort in last year’s Britannia as he was drawn in six and all the action unfolded on the stands’ side. The mile probably stretches him a little as well.

There shouldn’t be many excuses on the draw front on Thursday as Rob Hornby can effectively pick where he goes from the middle (stall 16), and underfoot conditions look ideal for this two-time good to firm winner.

There’s more to come from the four-year-old and if tightening physically up for the reappearance, as he did when bolting up at Newmarket second time out last term, he won’t be far away in this company.

Published at 1600 BST on 15/06/22

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