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Horse Racing Tips: Best outsiders and value bets for Royal Ascot on Friday
Three more Royal Ascot selections for Matt Brocklebank on Friday including a big outsider to consider in the last.
Value Bet Royal Ascot tips: Friday June 17
1pt win Ajero in 3.40 Royal Ascot at 14/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, bet365)
1pt e.w. Present Moment in 5.00 Royal Ascot at 66/1 (Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt win Manaccan in 6.10 Royal Ascot at 22/1 (Coral)
Already advised:
No real shot against returning Inspiral
No runaway Irish Guineas winner Homeless Songs in attendance on Friday but there’s little doubt the Coronation Stakes takes top billing with some quality British, French and American fillies, together with able back-up from Ireland, and we should be in for a cracker.
The race hinges on 2021 champion juvenile filly Inspiral to some extent and it’s not hard to see why she tops the market with the Gosden yard in scintillating form and some very positive reports emanating from Clarehaven.
Lively, summer ground is no hardship and negatives surrounding her chances boil down to the skinny price and credible opposition, some of whom remain open to improvement.
Mangoustine and Cachet appear to hold a bunch of them on the form of the latter’s Newmarket win but I wouldn’t be in a rush to rule out more progress from Prosperous Voyage, Tenebrism, Discoveries or Sandrine.
Andrew Balding won this with a filly beaten in the Guineas 12 months ago and perhaps Sandrine – who shaped well enough when finishing less than three lengths behind Cachet in fifth - will represent a spot of value on the day, but I can leave her alone at current odds.
Especially with mouth-watering handicaps like the Sandringham Stakes on the card and there are loads to consider at big prices.
Present and correct in Sandringham
Golden Mayflower emerges from Nashwa’s Oaks trial at Newbury, form that already read well prior to Mukaddamah only finishing fourth in Thursday's Ribblesdale, while Archie Watson stablemates Pink Carnation and Aunt Bethany could go well in first-time cheekpieces and blinkers respectively.
However, the one down the bottom of the weights who may have been let in particularly lightly is Michael Bell’s PRESENT MOMENT.
Well bred and expensively bought at Tattersalls October Book 1 as a yearling, the daughter of No Nay Never ran a promising race on debut over the extended mile in a Nottingham maiden at the end of September, prior to opening her account in a Redcar novice the following month.
She was subsequently put away and resumed with a low-key sixth in the Height Of Fashion Stakes won by Ribblesdale runner-up Sea Silk Road.
The move up to 10 furlongs, especially on soft ground, was always going to be a bit of a stretch and she frankly never looked like playing a part in the finish, but she consequently goes handicapping off what looks a fair mark (81) and the drop back in trip is a big plus.
The most significant potential source of improvement, however, has to be the ground as she’s yet to race on good to firm and could absolutely love it. Her full-sister Yesterdayoncemore certainly did, winning a Listed race at Del Mar on firm turf, while Wednesday’s win for Little Big Bear was a reminder of just how well suited to Royal Ascot No Nay Never’s progeny tend to be (Alcohol Free and Arizona his other winners at this particular meeting).
Make mine a Bailey's...
The Kim Bailey-trained AJERO has interested me for a while and despite the ludicrous early prices disappearing sharpish after declarations, he still makes plenty of appeal at 12/1 or bigger in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes.
Able to handle all types of ground but seemingly happiest on a sound surface, the son of Red Jazz was good enough to contest a Grade One novice hurdle at Aintree last April, having won his previous four starts in that sphere, and he was back at it when making every yard in a handicap hurdle from a mark of 134 at Taunton earlier this year.
He subsequently fell at Huntingdon but the Flat plan looks to have been hatched there and then, three quick outings in novice company during April and May a sure-fire way to get him handicapped and prepped for a valuable summer pot.
The seven-year-old performed very well too, looking a bit unlucky on both occasions he’s been to Chepstow (slowly away first time, denied a clear run when last seen) and far from disgraced when bustling up the Gosdens’ unbeaten Francesco Clemente at Sandown in between.
That colt – to whom Ajero was conceding 7lb - is rated 99 and holds an Arc de Triomphe entry so Ajero clearly bumped into one and all three 10-furlong efforts on the level have hinted that he’ll benefit from a move up in trip.
I half-thought Tuesday’s Copper Horse Stakes (1m6f) might have been under consideration but this could be ideal based on his two-mile jumping form and David Egan should be able to get him out and in a forward position from stall 10. If he’s not very well treated off a mark of 89 I’ve got this horse completely wrong.
El Caballo and Perfect Power have taken contrasting routes to the Commonwealth Cup and each has plenty to recommend them but there are plenty of others who look to have been brought to the boil for precisely this day, including Ehraz and long-range fancy Wings Of War.
The closest I came to a supplementary bet on the race was a small dart at the unexposed Rizg – another sired by No Nay Never – in first-time blinkers for Roger Varian and Hollie Doyle.
He’s only had three starts in his life, getting better every time, and isn’t miles off the pick of these on his close fourth behind Tiber Flow and Ehraz in the Listed Canarvon Stakes at Newbury.
Drop to minimum trip could be the key
Rather than go double-handed in the race, I’ll lean on Wings Of War’s 2021 form for a bet in the concluding Palace Of Holyroodhouse Stakes, in which MANACCAN is over-priced.
His Yarmouth third last summer worked out really well and he duly went and hacked up in a Newmarket novice, after which he was sixth of nine behind Wings Of War in the Group Two Mill Reef.
Perhaps the colt’s most eye-catching juvenile performance with this race in mind was his subsequent run behind (another Commonwealth Cup contender) Twilight Jet in the Group Three Cornwallis, being hampered at a key point but coming home well to be beaten two and a half lengths.
He’s had a prep run when too keen for his own good over six furlongs at Newmarket at the end of April, a race that has thrown up a couple of winners (one of which has won twice since), and the 2lb drop back to a mark of 100 gives him a cracking chance on just his second handicap start.
Published at 1600 BST on 16/06/22
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