Horse racing analysis | The record of outsiders in the 2000 Guineas

The 2023 running of the QIPCO 2000 Guineas was arguably a race that threw up as many questions as it did answers. Nobody is arguing that Chaldean wasn’t a worthy winner, but few would have predicted how it panned out behind him with several well-fancied runners failing to make an impact, leaving a couple of huge outsiders to hit the frame.

They were headed by runner-up Hi Royal, who returned an SP of 125/1 having been beaten in a conditions event at the same course a few weeks earlier. A couple of places behind him was the 150/1 shot Galeron, who had finished only third in a Listed race at Newcastle on his previous start.

Hi Royal (92p) and Galeron (102) were the lowest-rated runners on Timeform’s pre-race figures and their involvement at the business end of the race will have most form students tell you that this was probably just an average running of the 2000 Guineas.

It’s only natural to be sceptical when a horse seemingly runs to a level markedly above the form they’d shown previously. Hi Royal, for example, has likely improved somewhere in the region of 25 lb on Timeform ratings, passing the post a length and three-quarters behind Chaldean and half a length ahead of Royal Scotsman, two horses who were among the pick of last year’s juvenile crop.

Only time will tell whether Hi Royal is as good as this run made him look. He was certainly open to more improvement after just three starts and there was nothing in the way the race developed to suggest he was flattered somehow.

Recent history also tells us that it would be unwise to dismiss Hi Royal’s performance as a fluke, so too that of Galeron, as they emulated the many other big-priced placegetters in the 2000 Guineas over the years.

Since the turn of the century alone, 28 horses have now finished in the first four in the opening Classic of the season having returned an SP of 25/1 or above. 15 of them were sent off at 50/1 plus and eight were sent off at 100/1 plus.

The big question is how many of the other 26 horses were able to match – or even better – their 2000 Guineas form in their subsequent starts, proving that they were full value for what they achieved at Newmarket?

All downhill from the Rowley Mile

We’ll start by focusing on the one-hit wonders, the six horses who never quite managed to repeat the form they showed at Newmarket afterwards, using Timeform’s performance ratings as a guide.

Cockney Rebel is the anomaly on that list as he was a high-class winner of the 2000 Guineas in 2007 – when sent off at 25/1 – and it was probably only circumstance that prevented him from scaling the same heights again in two subsequent runs.

He simply didn’t need to show the same level of form when following up in the Irish 2000 Guineas and his career was then brought to a premature end as he suffered an injury when finishing fifth in the St James’s Palace Stakes.

The 2007 Guineas also had a much-improved runner-up in the shape of 33/1-shot Vital Equine, though he too was below that form in two subsequent starts, finishing down the field in both the Irish 2000 Guineas and Prix de la Foret.

Glory Awaits and Tip Two Win are a couple of others for whom a second-place finish in the 2000 Guineas was a standout piece of form. Trained by the same man as Hi Royal in Kevin Ryan, Glory Awaits was sent off at 150/1 when chasing home Dawn Approach in 2013, but he was generally a notch or two below the best in Britain and his biggest success instead came in Turkey when he won the 2014 International Topkapi Trophy.

As for Tip Two Win, he was a 50/1-shot when giving Saxon Warrior most to think about in the 2018 Guineas, but that was as good as it got for him as he failed to reproduce his Newmarket form in eight more runs.

Similar comments apply to Zoning and Bossy Guest, who each finished fourth when sent off at 50/1 at Newmarket, in 2000 and 2016, respectively. Bossy Guest didn’t win another race after that, though he did run respectably when third in the Jersey Stakes next time, while Zoning gained his only subsequent victory in a minor event at Jebel Ali.

Stars born on the Guineas stage

It's clear then that hitting the frame at a big price in the 2000 Guineas in no guarantee of future success, but there are plenty of other horses who have achieved that feat before going on to bigger and better things, including the two longest-priced winners of the 2000 Guineas this century, namely Makfi (33/1 in 2010) and Night of Thunder (40/1 in 2014).

Makfi went on to prove himself a top-class miler when beating the brilliant Goldikova in that year's Prix Jacques le Marois, while Night of Thunder was placed at the highest level on several other occasions as a three-year-old before returning the following year with a second Group One success in the Lockinge Stakes.

Zafeen, who was runner-up to Refuse To Bend when sent off at 33/1 for the 2003 Guineas, went on to show even better form when winning the St James's Palace for Mick Channon. Zafeen was owned by Jaber Abdullah, who will be hoping his Hi Royal can also become a Group One winner at some stage this year fully two decades on.

100/1 shot Norse Dancer was one place behind Zafeen at Newmarket and, though never quite managing to make the breakthrough at the top level, he proved himself a high-class performer in finishing placed on several other occasions, including when chasing home Azamour in the 2005 King George.

That was the fourth Group One success of Azamour's career and he was a genuinely top-class performer over middle-distances for John Oxx. He wasn't too bad over a mile on his day, either, notably finishing third at 25/1 in the 2004 Guineas before winning the St James's Palace a couple of starts later.

Araafa completed the Irish 2000 Guineas/St James's Palace double in 2006, going from strength to strength after finishing fourth behind George Washington as a 66/1-shot at Newmarket, while Xtension filled the same position behind Makfi when sent off at 25/1 for the 2010 Guineas. He developed into a solid Group One operator in Hong Kong later in his career and won back-to-back editions of the Champions Mile.

Priced at 33/1 when finishing third behind Galileo Gold in the 2016 Guineas, Ribchester went on to prove himself a top-notch miler with four Group One wins for Godolphin, while Naval Crown carried the royal blue to finish fourth at 50/1 in the 2021 Guineas. He proved at his best over sprint trips the following year, notably winning the Platinum Jubilee Stakes.

The Hannon yard has never been afraid to have a crack at the Guineas with an outsider and they've had five horses hit the frame at big odds since the turn of the century. 2014 hero Night of Thunder is the obvious one, but Redback (third at 25/1 in 2002), Dubawi Gold (runner-up at 33/1 in 2011), Shifting Power (fourth at 50/1 in 2014) and King of Change (runner-up at 66/1 in 2019) all ran well in defeat, too.

Dubawi Gold and Shifting Power both matched their Newmarket form at the very least when filling the runner-up spot in the Irish 2000 Guineas next time, while King of Change went one better when producing a career best to open his account at the top level in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes later in the season.

Redback didn't win again after finishing third behind Rock of Gibraltar and Hawk Wing in the 2002 Guineas, but he probably ran at least as well when narrowly denied in the Celebration Mile. One place behind him at Newmarket was French raider and 40/1-shot Zipping, who subsequently improved for a return to sprinting with a Group Three win and a couple more Group One placings.

Three-figure odds no barrier to future success

Rebel Rebel and Kandidate were both sent off at 100/1 for the 2005 Guineas having looked exposed, but they ended up finishing second and third, respectively, and subsequent events confirmed they were indeed smart performers.

Rebel Rebel moved to the US halfway though his three-year-old campaign and returned to form the following year when second in the Grade One Woodbine Mile, while Kandidate was a hard-knocking campaigner over several years for Clive Brittain, with his biggest success coming as a five-year-old in Round 2 of the Al Maktoum Challenge.

Olympian Odyssey failed to add to his tally after finishing third at 33/1 in the 2006 Guineas won by George Washington, but his fourth in the Champion Stakes at the end of that season was another good run, while Stubbs Art was third at 100/1 in the 2008 Guineas fought out by Henrythenavigator and New Approach. He proved he was by no means flattered by that run when chasing home the same two horses in the Irish 2000 Guineas next time.

Last but not least is Slim Shadey, who finished fourth in the 2011 Guineas when sent off at 200/1. Admittedly, that was a hollow achievement in his case – he was beaten over 17 lengths and needed to run to a Timeform rating of 88 to hit the frame – but there was plenty more to come from him as he went on to show borderline very smart form when winning in Grade Two company in the US.

That means out of 26 horses to have finished in the first four in the 2000 Guineas at odds of 25/1 or above, 19 of them went on to at least match their Newmarket form afterwards, including 10 subsequent Group/Grade One winners. It could become 20 as well should Eydon come back with a bang this season having been on the sidelines with injury since finishing fourth at 33/1 in last year's Guineas.

As for this year's Guineas, it's worth repeating that it was a race that threw up as many questions as it did answers.

Is Hi Royal as good as he looked in chasing home Chaldean? Only time will tell on that score, but if we've learnt one thing it's that he isn't one to underestimate in the other big three-year-old clashes to come in the weeks ahead.

Best-performing outsiders (25/1+) in the 2000 Guineas since year 2000

• 2000 Zoning Fourth at 50/1
• 2002 Redback Third at 25/1
• 2002 Zipping Fourth at 40/1
• 2003 Zafeen Runner-up at 33/1
• 2003 Norse Dancer Third at 100/1
• 2004 Azamour Third at 25/1
• 2005 Rebel Rebel Runner-up at 100/1
• 2005 Kandidate Third at 100/1
• 2006 Olympian Odyssey Third at 33/1
• 2006 Araafa Fourth at 66/1
• 2007 Cockney Rebel Winner at 25/1
• 2007 Vital Equine Runner-up at 33/1
• 2008 Stubbs Art Third at 100/1
• 2010 Makfi Winner at 33/1
• 2010 Xtension Fourth at 25/1
• 2011 Dubawi Gold Runner-up at 33/1
• 2011 Slim Shadey Fourth at 200/1
• 2013 Glory Awaits Runner-up at 150/1
• 2014 Night of Thunder Winner at 40/1
• 2014 Shifting Power Fourth at 50/1
• 2015 Bossy Guest Fourth at 50/1
• 2016 Ribchester Third at 33/1
• 2018 Tip Two Win Runner-up at 50/1
• 2019 King of Change Runner-up at 66/1
• 2021 Naval Crown Fourth at 50/1
• 2022 Eydon Fourth at 33/1
• 2023 Hi Royal Runner-up at 125/1
• 2023 Galeron Fourth at 150/1

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