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Horse racing analysis | In-form trainers to follow
Adam Houghton highlights three trainers who have started in August in red-hot form and will be worth following in the coming weeks.
*Statistics based on results up to and including Saturday 12 August
Ed Dunlop
- Winners/runners (strike rate): 10/28 (35.71%)
- Run-to-form percentage: 57.14%
- Percentage of rivals beaten: 67.21%
Ed Dunlop saddled 58 winners on the Flat in Britain in 2022 – the first time he’d reached a half-century of winners in a single campaign since 2017 – and he’s seemingly well on his way to his surpassing that tally again in 2023, with 46 winners already on the board at a much-improved 16% strike rate.
After a small dip in form in July (5/54, 9%), August is shaping up to be the best month of his season yet having already sent out 10 winners from 28 runners. A 36% strike rate is symptomatic of a yard in red-hot form and it could pay to follow the team in the coming weeks given that they've returned a healthy profit of £24.12 to a £1 level stake so far in August.
The haul includes a double at Wolverhampton towards the beginning of the month courtesy of Nikki’s Girl and Royal Dream, both horses ridden to victory by the promising 5-lb claimer, Morgan Cole. The two-year-old Grey Gray also deserves a mention having won twice in the space of a few days at Musselburgh and Chelmsford, easily defying a penalty on the last occasion in the style of one whose winning run may not have ended yet.
Only four trainers in Britain and Ireland – Ralph Beckett (13/51), William Haggas (11/43), Richard Hannon (11/62) and Tim Easterby (11/83) – have saddled more Flat winners in August than Dunlop, who has had considerably fewer runners than that quartet. In fact, his impressive strike rate is unequalled among all Flat trainers who have saddled 10 or more runners since the start of the month.
Kevin Philippart de Foy
- Winners/runners (strike rate): 5/15 (33.33%)
- Run-to-form percentage: 60.00%
- Percentage of rivals beaten: 73.80%
Kevin Philippart de Foy is only in his third full season with a licence, but he's already made a big impression having enjoyed plenty of success with his growing team. He saddled 30 winners in 2021 before doubling his tally from twice as many runners in 2022, the result being a solid 16% strike rate in each of his first two seasons in the training ranks.
Philippart de Foy was operating slightly below the high standards he'd set for himself at the start of this summer – his strike rate was down at 9% in both June and July – but it's fair to say that things have turned the corner in no uncertain terms in August, a month in which the trainer is ranked behind only Dunlop on strike rate having sent out five winners from 15 runners at an excellent 33%.
The most notable of those winners was probably Alshinfarah, who again looked a useful prospect when defying a penalty to make it two from two in a novice event at Haydock on Friday. Very much the type to go on improving, Alshinfarah is owned by Shadwell, who sent two-year-olds to Philippart de Foy for the first time earlier this year, certainly a feather in the cap for the young trainer.
Few would dispute that's he laid solid foundations for a successful career in the training ranks and it could be a productive end to the campaign if he can sustain the momentum he's built up so far in August. With a total of 44 winners on the board in 2023, he'll be looking for another 17 for yet another personal-best tally.
Dermot Weld
- Winners/runners (strike rate): 5/16 (31.25%)
- Run-to-form percentage: 68.75%
- Percentage of rivals beaten: 77.19%
Dermot Weld's month-by-month strike rates in 2023 would suggest it's been a rather up-and-down season so far. The veteran trainer certainly made a quiet start to the campaign – he went 180 days without a winner before Mashia struck at Naas on May 6 to to get him off the mark for 2023 – but then the floodgates opened during the rest of May as the yard ended the month with eight winners from 31 runners at a 26% strike rate.
There was another drop-off in June and July as Weld saddled only six winners from 58 runners (10% strike rate) in those two months combined, but things have started to look up again in August as the yard has been one of the most successful in Britain and Ireland with five winners from 16 runners at 31%.
Three of those winners came at Weld's beloved Galway Festival as Coeur d'Or and Livio Milo both struck on the same card before Captain Maverick opened his account in a maiden later in the week. Perhaps his most promising winner for the future was Shelaka, who looked a potentially useful two-year-old on debut at Tipperary on Friday.
It's also worth pointing out that Weld's horses have generally been running well in August. With a Timeform run-to-form percentage of 69%, Weld is ranked behind only Stella Barclay (73%) – who has saddled three winners from 11 runners (27% strike rate) in an excellent month for her small yard – Ed Bethell, Emmet Mullins and William Muir & Chris Grassick (all 70%).
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