Repeat victories in the Cheltenham Gold Cup are not common these days – far from it.
Easter Hero, Golden Miller, Cottage Rake, Arkle, L’Escargot, Best Mate. Just six names etched into National Hunt history having completed the back-to-back double in the winter game’s most prestigious race.
It was made to look relatively simple in the early years, Golden Miller helping himself to five on the spin in the 1930s, but no horse has backed up since Best Mate’s hat-trick from 2002-2004, and he was the first to retain the Gold Cup after L’Escargot in 1971.
Heavy is the head that wears the crown*.
Fittingly, Henry IV lost his own title in the month of March (he died), and it has obviously proved a difficult time for returning kings in this particular battle.
The 2019 hero Al Boum Photo is joint-favourite for the 2020 Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup, so why should punters be wary?
*Shakespeare, not Stormzy
New pressures on the pilot
It should never be underestimated just how easy Ruby Walsh made winning Grade Ones at Cheltenham appear.
Walsh was super-human when it came to almost effortlessly getting favourites over the line in front at the biggest meeting of the year and while Paul Townend has barely put a foot wrong in his powerful role since promotion last May, he’s never gone into a Cheltenham Festival as Willie Mullins’ number one rider.
With that comes a weight of expectation he will never have felt before.
Townend gave Al Boum Photo a brilliant ride last March, there’s a fair chance he’s on the best horse in the race again, and he'll be confident. But the horse was the supposed second-string 12 months ago and that does shift the goalposts slightly in terms of pressure.
Jockeys tend to take each race as it comes and Townend is evidently about as level-headed as they come but he knows the world is watching him now, while his near-perfect predecessor will not only be in attendance, but has the platform to critique runners and riders in his job as TV analyst.
Townend will do well to completely block it all out and focus on the task at hand.
Mullins no golden boy in the big one
Willie Mullins will win more Gold Cups, there’s little doubt about that given the wealth of talented horses he gets his hands on every year.
But expecting him to win again simply because he did so 12 months ago would be a mistake.
Ireland’s champion trainer had gone close on plenty of occasions – hitting the crossbar with six runners-up and a couple of thirds over the years – but the fact remains he was 0-22 overall (individual runners) prior to Al Boum Photo’s breakthrough success.
The seven-year-old was one of four runners for Mullins last year and the team will be half as strong, numerically at least, this time around providing he and Kemboy remain in full working order.
Cheltenham Gold Cups aren’t London buses and the floodgates shouldn’t be expected to simply open up for a horse who got a dream run through the crowd last year, while it also can’t be taken for granted that the single-race preparation will work so well for the second year in succession.
Scars of battle
Al Boum Photo looked fresh as paint winning at Tramore on New Year’s Day.
He travelled with zest, jumped superbly throughout and didn’t have to be asked any real questions to comfortably draw six lengths clear of a fairly solid yardstick in Acapella Bourgeois (sixth in the Thyestes since).
But until the gun is put to his head at the bottom of the Cheltenham hill we just won’t know how he’ll react to being put through this particular war for a second time.
Perhaps another extremely light campaign – something Henrietta Knight and the team around Best Mate utilised expertly almost two decades ago – will serve him well in this regard, but the opposite may also be true.
While the reigning champion has been tucked up in his box polishing his trophy, the new challengers to his throne – principally last year’s top novices Lostintranslation and Delta Work - have been cutting their teeth in Grade One races through the campaign, gaining much-needed, big-race conditioning in the process.
It’s also worth pointing out that, unlike his backers on the day, the favourite's stablemate Kemboy doesn’t have any haunting Gold Cup memories from last year having checked out after unseating Danny Mullins at the very first fence.
He also went on to beat Clan Des Obeaux by nine lengths in the Bowl at Aintree, and Al Boum Photo himself by two lengths in the Punchestown Gold Cup.
Chance of drying ground
The possibility of a good ground Gold Cup may seem a world away, especially on the back of the weekend’s storm-affected action from Ascot, but the weather will probably play a part somewhere along the line at Cheltenham.
If the current climate continues then Al Boum Photo will be perfectly suited by any ease underfoot but the race’s position at the end of Festival week does leave it open to the chance of the ground drying out quite significantly if the sun happens to make an appearance.
There was cut in the ground 12 months ago and it was a bit of a bog when Native River saw off Might Bite the year before, although you only have to back to Sizing John’s edition in 2017 for a Gold Cup run of pretty spicy conditions.
That would be something completely alien to Al Boum Photo, who has never raced on ground described as good and has recorded six of his seven career wins with heavy or soft in the official going description.
Talking tactics
The cream of the staying division should really rise to the top in a truly-run Gold Cup and that looked all but assured until the news that Native River had been ruled out due to injury.
Colin Tizzard’s chestnut couldn’t adopt his customary front-running role after a sloppy start last year but had appeared to be really sparking again in his races this season so his absence from the Gold Cup could throw things up in the air tactically.
Al Boum Photo seems a straightforward ride but no confirmed front-runner won’t be great news for Paul Townend, whose mount seemed to relish the 16-strong field in 2019.
He may be forced to commit even sooner this time around in what’s looking like it may whittle right down to just seven or eight runners (took up the running approaching two-out last year).
Native River’s withdrawal also looks a potential negative for Santini, who would obviously want a thorough stamina test, with the chances of Lostintranslation, Kemboy or Monalee arguably heightened due to the possibility of them pinching a good tactical position towards the head of affairs.
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