Warren Greatrex believes the Betfred Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase at Haydock on Saturday is the ideal place for stable star Bill Baxter to enhance his chance of making the final field for this season's Randox Grand National.
The Aintree showpiece on April 13 has been the long-term target for the progressive seven-year-old ever since making his first start over the unique fences a triumphant one in last season’s Randox Supports Race Against Dementia Topham Handicap Chase.
However, as it stands Bill Baxter would more than likely miss out on an appearance in the world’s most famous jump race with his current chase mark of 140 below the likely cut off point for the final field of 34 runners that will tackle the extended four-and-a-quarter-mile contest.
After finishing third on his comeback in the Listed Colin Parker Memorial Intermediate Chase at Carlisle earlier this month, Bill Baxter then finished eighth on his first start over three-and-a-quarter miles over fences in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury.
And with current testing conditions at the Merseyside track set to suit Bill Baxter, the Lambourn handler is confident the Milan gelding should be ‘thereabouts’ come the conclusion of the £50,000 feature contest.
Greatrex said: “The plan has always been the Grand National and he probably needs to go up at least seven pounds between now and when the weights are released for the Grand National, so the Tommy Whittle looks a good opportunity to try and get him up the weights.
"The ground is soft, heavy in places with more rain to come this week so it will be tough conditions. I think the track will suit him as he has run well around Haydock Park before over hurdles and he seems in good form.
"He will be put in the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby on Boxing Day but I’m favouring the Tommy Whittle.
"It looks the place to go with the ground set to be in his favour and with everything happening a bit slower in soft ground around Haydock I would like to think he will be thereabouts at the end."
Although Bill Baxter’s eighth place finish in the Coral Gold Cup does not read like a great result on paper, Greatrex feels that there were still plenty of positives to take from that effort on quicker than ideal conditions.
Greatrex said: “He has had two runs this season and I was happy with his seasonal re-appearance at Carlisle. He ran well that day, and he wouldn’t have been fully wound up and he had a good blow afterwards. We went to Newbury for the Coral Gold Cup, and I think it just wasn’t his conditions as it was proper good ground. I thought he ran a very good race considering that.
“He jumped brilliantly and travelled fantastic. A horse fell upsides him down the back and gave him a bit of a jolt and at the next fence he lacked a bit of room which probably knocked him back a couple of lengths, but it wasn’t enough to stop where he finished.
“He travelled into the straight well and they just quickened up away from him. It was his first run over the trip over fences and he stayed on strongly to the line and passed a few up the run in.
“He was able to lay up to them in what was a very fierce gallop as he was in the first seven or eight and he held his position. He never really missed a beat jumping. To do that, and be in top gear, for well over a circuit, and finish like he did was very positive.
“He wasn’t beaten all that far and I just think if that had been soft ground, I think we would have been talking different. He put in a good performance in conditions that didn’t suit and for a race like that you need to have everything aligned.”
While ground conditions will be crucial to Greatrex’s final decision over Bill Baxter’s participation at Haydock Park at the weekend, another crucial element to that process will be the availability of his regular rider James Bowen.
He added: “James has ridden him a fair amount and has won twice on him. He knows him and knows what he can do. James is a big part of the team now and is riding everything when he is available.
“It works well him being second jockey to Nicky (Henderson) and first jockey to us. He is a huge asset and to have him on board Saturday would be huge. If I go to Wetherby there are a lot more meetings on Boxing Day and the chances of James being able to ride are much less than he would be able to on Saturday and that is a big factor."
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