It's day one of the Grand National Festival and, on the back of an 8/1 Saturday winner, Matt Brocklebank has three Thursday bets to consider including a couple at massive prices.
Value Bet tips: Thursday April 3
1pt e.w. The Kalooki Kid in 1.45 Aintree at 33/1 (William Hill, bet365 1/5 1,2,3)
1pt win Petit Tonnerre in 4.40 Aintree at 8/1 (General)
1pt e.w. La Conquiere in 5.15 Aintree at 33/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4)
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Boy done good for Richards
What a start to the Grand National meeting on Thursday, a card that kicks off with four Grade 1s including Constitution Hill against Lossiemouth in the William Hill Aintree Hurdle. It’s true that Nicky Henderson’s star wasn’t overly impressive in beating Sharjah in this two and a half-mile event a couple of years ago, but I still see him having too many gears for the Mares’ Hurdle winner Lossiemouth.
Whether he’s able to produce 11 sensible jumps is arguably the bigger issue, looking at what he’s done not only in the Champion Hurdle but also at the final flight in the Unibet Hurdle on Trials Day, and there’s just no real appeal in siding with either of them at the odds.
The Martin Pipe winner Wodhooh – another mare in receipt of the 7lb allowance here – is still only five and who knows quite where her ceiling might be, but she looks short enough too at single-figure prices based on her achievements on the track to this point.
I’m still hopeful there might be one or two surprises on the day, however, and suggest backing THE KALOOKI KID each-way in the opening EBC Group Manifesto Novices’ Chase.
This race looks potentially quite open, with Jango Baie maybe a bit vulnerable after his hard race in the Arkle and Impaire Et Passe now back from a break in cheekpieces after a flat run at the Dublin Racing Festival. Croke Park is possibly the horse they all have to beat but he likes getting his toe in and will find this test plenty sharp enough in the ground.
The Kalooki Kid has lots to find on the figures but there’s no question he’s improving rapidly, making it two wins from three starts over fences with an easy handicap success against more established chasers at Musselburgh last time out in February.
The assessor nudged him up 7lb to a mark 138 for that and he could presumably have stayed down the handicap route this week, but I applaud the ambition being shown by connections and this smooth-travelling grey looks to have the tools to frighten a few of his better-fancied rivals in a race of this nature. He’ll be perfectly at home in the conditions and rates a bet at 25s and bigger.
Filibustering would be the token suggestion in the Boodles Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle but he’s been nibbled at already and, on reflection, he did have it easy enough on the front end when winning on jumps debut at Kelso.
The market looks to have it about right with Live Conti looking a threat to Joseph O’Brien’s pair Puturhandstogether and Naturally Nimble.
I’ll opt to pass in the Brooklands Golden Miller Chronograph Bowl Chase too as Stage Star has been on my radar for the race for a long time but I was hoping for a juicier price after Grey Dawning, Spillane’s Tower and Gaelic Warrior were all declared.
There’s Ahoy Senor to throw into the mix too as he seems to love it here, while complete outsider The Real Whacker probably deserves a mention too as he’s got his ground and might really enjoy jumping from fence to fence on this flat track, with the ground also coming right for him.
It just looks a fraction too tough, unfortunately.
Tonnes in hand still...?
The Close Brothers Red Rum Handicap Chase is attractively tough and there a few obvious ones towards the top of the market including last year’s winner Sans Bruit who is back on the same mark as when landing this from the front 12 months ago.
He lines up here on the back of seven quite heavy defeats whereas top weight Tommy’s Oscar has only run three times since his victory at Ayr last April – and he too is back on his last winning mark (152). Having been bumped up to 157 after beating Traprain Law and Sans Bruit north of the border last spring, that looks a reasonably generous piece of handicapping given he’s been far from disgraced in his outings earlier this season.
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However, I refuse to believe Tommy’s Oscar is the best treated horse in the field as that gong surely goes the way of PETIT TONNERRE, who would win this tidily off a mark of 130 if able to recapture his very best form.
That’s far from certain, of course, and he’s now in his second stint over fences having had a few issues in the past, but it’s worth underlining the fact he’s still only seven and recent evidence has been very encouraging.
Once rated 141 as a hurdler, he’d slipped all the way to 125 this winter and duly got back to winning ways when finally opening his chase account with cheekpieces refitted at Doncaster in January.
He was well-punted to follow up back there last month but was left with no chance when brought down a long way from home so it’s just hoped that potentially unsettling experience (crashed into the rail) doesn’t leave a lasting impression.
He now resumes a relatively fresh horse after a month off, at least, and it looks a wise move to come back to Aintree where he just missed out over course and distance on similar ground at the start of the season back in October. Beaten three-quarters of a length that day, the winner Imperial Saint went on to win two more of his five subsequent starts as his mark rose fully 20lb in the space of a few months.
That just hammers home the point how well-handicapped Petit Tonnerre still is if putting it all together, and anything like a secure round of jumping should see him go very close.
Flurry of Snowden winners bodes well
It’s not on ITV but look out for LA CONQUIERE running well at a big price later on in the Goffs Nickel Coin Mares’ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race.
Her lack of experience, certainly in comparison to the likes of Charisma Cat, Seo Linn and Strong Run, could be an issue but it looks well factored into the market as she made a hugely promising debut when beaten less than a length into second behind Blue Velvet at Thurles in December.
The winner hasn’t quite kicked on as hoped since but the third was runner-up to Cheltenham Festival winner Bambino Fever on her next start at Punchestown and I’m still inclined to take a fairly positive view of the level of form.
Representing Denis Leahy and sent off an unconsidered 80/1 shot first time out, La Conquiere went through the race quite stylishly and could have made a real race of it with the Blue Velvet had she got a perfectly clear run in the home straight. That wasn’t the case at all, looking short of room with a furlong and a half to travel, and she also appeared pretty green when asked to go about her business late on.
She’s since been snapped up by the Jamie Snowden Racing Club and now returns to action for a trainer who could hardly be in better form (4-13 in the past fortnight).
Snowden has only ever had two runners in this particular bumper over the years, the 33/1 fifth in 2019 (Shantewe) and last year’s 40/1 third (La Marquise) so there must be a decent chance he’s seen plenty of improvement from this horse if he thinks she can fly the flag. I'm having an each-way interest.
Published at 1600 BST on 02/04/25
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