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Value Bet tips: Saturday April 5
1pt win Barry Lyndon in 1.20 Aintree at 20/1 (General)
1pt win Peaky Boy in 2.30 Aintree at 9/1 (bet365, Coral) - Non runner
1pt e.w. Hyland in 4.00 Aintree at 20/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
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Henderson to finally break through in National?
Class horses have dominated the Randox Grand National in recent seasons and, following the latest alterations to the big race 12 months ago, Irish-trained former Grade 1 winners filled the first four places.
There are several likely types who fit that mould this time around too, including last year’s returning winner I Am Maximus and third Minella Indo, who seem sure to go well again. I was warming to the chances of Minella Cocooner - another top-class winner in his youth - a couple of weeks ago around the 25/1 mark but, like the aforementioned pair, his price has contracted through the build-up and there’s absolutely no question that the pick of the value now lies in looking beyond the well-fancied Irish runners completely.
Twig was the 100/1 antepost suggestion before what turned out to be quite a tepid prep run at Doncaster and he’ll clearly need an extraordinary step up on that to win the race for Ben Pauling and the Morgan family, but Nicky Henderson’s HYLAND looks perfectly well-weighted and it’s not hard to argue he’d be one of the favourites if this were a traditional handicap chase on a conventional course.
I can’t have been the only one who felt desperately sorry for Henderson on this day last year. Here is a man who has been looking for a National horse since his first runner in the race way back in 1979 and, without a dog in the fight 12 months ago, had to watch on from the stands as former Seven Barrows representative I Am Maximus stormed home for Willie Mullins and JP McManus.
But great sportsmen and women don’t stay at the top of the tree by standing still, and in fairness to Henderson he has been looking to adapt his approach to Aintree in recent years, often not feeling the need to send one into battle almost for the sake of it.
A couple of years ago, he changed tack completely and ran tricky customer Mister Coffey, who performed admirably in eighth behind Corach Rambler as a second-season novice, and now the trainer is looking to push the boundaries again by saddling a far less exposed and high-class novice in the shape of eight-year-old grey Hyland.
One of just three runners in the field (along with Grangeclare West and Senior Chief) to have had the bare minimum six chase starts in order to qualify for the Grand National, Hyland looks capable of a massive run based on his arc of improvement so far over fences.
It all started at Southwell last summer and he’s evidently been something of a surprise package for connections, but there was no fluke about his Cheltenham defeat of Resplendent Grey at Cheltenham in November and he underlined the point with an excellent second behind The Jukebox Man in the Grade 1 Kauto Star on Boxing Day.
Given a couple of months off, reportedly with this event already in mind at that stage, he resumed with an eyecatching effort in a valuable handicap (off Saturday’s mark of 147) at Kempton in late-February, when the race just didn’t pan out in his favour after an early jumping error.
WATCH: Hyland stays on for second at Kempton
Nursed into it by Nico De Boinville, he was never going to reel in the enterprisingly-ridden winner but did stay on nicely to fill the runner-up spot. That stamina looks an asset stepping up a mile and a quarter in trip but, in the same breath, the nature of the new-look National means that old-fashioned plodders simply need not apply, and there’s no way Hyland would fall into that category.
In essence, he’s a big improver from a leading yard and must have decent ground to show his best. And while it’s true he’s yet to win at Grade 1 level, he does have that top-level experience already in the bag from Kempton.
If Hyland takes to this still unique test then I’m far from convinced a horse like I Am Maximus can successfully give him a stone and a half, and consequently I’d have them much closer in the betting. The value definitely lies with the Henderson horse and, especially after the week he’s had with the lows of Constitution Hill on day one and highs of Jonbon on Friday, it would be quite a story for the trainer to finally break his National hoodoo after 46 years of trying.
Two more blinding bets on National undercard
It’s not all about the £1million feature on Saturday and the William Hill Top Price Guarantee Handicap Hurdle looks a good betting race. Admittedly, it could be the softest ground of the entire week for the opening race on National day but I do think a lot of these stayers would prefer much deeper conditions in an ideal world.
Kamsinas is a horse I’ve a lot of time for and he has untapped potential at the trip after running well in second at Doncaster last month. Trying to give the winner 18lb in weight proved too much there but the addition of a tongue-tie seemed to help him get back on track, and the going on Town Moor was good according to Timeform (good to soft, officially).
He’s got a solid enough profile despite another 2lb rise in the ratings for the latest defeat but at slightly bigger prices, I’m with BARRY LYNDON, who looks to have been doing well lately in spite of the soft winter ground in Ireland.
Withdrawn a couple of times in the past due to testing conditions and a winner on good ground when debuting in May 2023 and again at Bellewstown last summer, it bodes really well for the next few months ahead that Dermot McLoughlin’s horse was able to get back in the groove at Fairyhouse (soft) in February. A bit like Kamsinas, the application of a first-time tongue clearly worked wonders that day.
The Irish handicapper nudged him up to a career-high mark of 135 on the back of the win and the BHA has added an extra 2lb for good measure, but the runner-up from Fairyhouse did frank the form with a terrific run in sixth off a mark of 140 in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham last month.
The first go at three miles this weekend looks another potential source of improvement with Barry Lyndon, given he’s got stayers on the dam’s side of his pedigree, and he looks too big in the betting all things considered.
Elsewhere, I don’t see anything priced too irrationally in any of the Grade 1s on day three, while the other main punting race is the William Hill Handicap Chase.
The market probably has this about right with Imperial Saint favourite as he should be well suited by the step up to three miles on a course we know he absolutely loves (3-3 at Aintree).
However, there is one other seriously unexposed runner and it’s the other seven-year-old, PEAKY BOY.
He was arguably a bit of a flop when a well-beaten third of four on debut for the O’Neills in the Reynoldstown at Ascot in February but maybe he didn’t enjoy going right-handed and his early-season form for Henderson reads really well in this company.
After winning nicely on his first start over fences at Cheltenham’s November meeting, returned to Prestbury Park with creditable third behind subsequent National Hunt Chase winner Haiti Couleurs in December.
Giving the now 142-rated winner 9lb there and beaten just three lengths, Peaky Boy looks feasibly treated back in handicap company off 139 and he’ll be fully effective over the trip on drying ground.
It’s hoped the first run since his private sale might have been needed and he’s worth backing around 8/1 for a yard among the winners already here this week.
Published at 1600 BST on 04/04/25
WATCH: BUILDING THE PERFECT RACEHORSE
We asked legendary trainers Willie Mullins, Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls - as well as star jockeys Harry Skelton, Sam Twiston-Davies, Charlie Deutche and Daryl Jacob - to create a Frankenstein's Monster of a racehorse.
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