Value Bet Grand National tips: Saturday April 9
1pt win Espoir De Romay in 4.15 Aintree at 10/1 (bet365)
1pt e.w. Noble Yeats in 5.15 Aintree at 50/1 (William Hill, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Dingo Dollar in 5.15 Aintree at 50/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair, bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
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Waley-Cohen fairy-tale not out of the question
Market forces can cloud a punter’s judgement at the best of times and that danger is heightened ten-fold during Randox Grand National week.
As NOBLE YEATS touched 120.0 in the win market on the Betfair Exchange earlier in the week I must admit to having considerable doubts about his participation, but Emmet Mullins’ horse does thankfully feature in a fantastic Aintree field, and he's the one to be on at current odds.
The case for Noble Yeats winning isn’t exactly straightforward, and jockey Sam Waley-Cohen announcing this will be his final ride before retirement has added an element to his story, but at the heart of it all we have a progressive, young novice on a good-looking mark (147) who seems likely to relish a first crack at Saturday’s marathon distance.
Granted, no seven-year-old has won the Grand National since World War II, though I'd argue Noble Yeats is no ordinary seven-year-old. On top of that, it does look a matter of time before we see another seven-year-old winning this race.
Across the past 10 editions - featuring 396 horses – only 20 seven-year-olds have taken part and it’s not like they’ve all been lapped. Far from it, in fact, as half of that 20 have run really well including a fifth, a seventh, a couple of eighths, a ninth and a 10th.
Farclas was the latest to perform with credit when finishing on the periphery 12 months ago, lack of stamina probably his undoing more than anything.
Noble Yeats – a son of the great, four-time Gold Cup (at Ascot) winner – looks to have inherited plenty of the old man’s stamina and yet he’s also classy enough to have won a bumper by 19 lengths, a maiden hurdle by 12 lengths and his chasing debut over the extended two miles and two furlongs, when getting the better of Gabynako and Magic Daze who both ended up in the Sporting Life Arkle, the former finishing second behind Edwardstone.
Since that fencing debut success at Galway in October, his record has been rather mixed including when ‘clinically abnormal’ on a couple of occasions post-race, but he ran much better than the bare result in the Paddy Power at Leopardstown over Christmas and shaped eye-catchingly well when second behind Ahoy Senor in the Towton in early-February.
The Wetherby form has worked out very well, third home Ashtown Lad finishing fifth in the Scottish National off 140 and fourth home Saint Palais now up to 153 having bolted up at Uttoxeter. Ahoy Senor has obviously done his bit too by finishing second in the Brown Advisory at Cheltenham and slamming his rivals in Friday's Mildmay which will probably put him on for a mark in the mid-160s.
Noble Yeats was last seen finishing ninth at the Cheltenham Festival, drying ground over a relatively sharp three miles on the Old Course possibly just catching him out when the pace initially increased, but it was presumably seen as a good prep opportunity after his high-profile private sale to the Waley-Cohens ahead of Saturday’s big target. There was no shame in the run and his new rider no doubt learnt plenty about the horse too.
Waley-Cohen isn’t the best jockey in the race this weekend and he’s possibly not quite as bold and fearless as he was when winning a couple of Tophams and a Becher in his youth (who could blame him?), but the 39-year-old still has a canny ability to have his horses well positioned in these races.
Timeform’s pace map suggests he’ll be among those anchored towards the back, having been handled patiently at Wetherby and at the Festival last month, but a slightly more prominent pitch in the first-time cheekpieces wouldn’t come as a huge surprise.
I do like the addition of headgear to help this horse's jumping and focus on the job, while it’s interesting to note Mullins has had a winner when adding cheekpieces before, from a small sample size of just four. It all adds up to a massive run and I'm a little surprised at his price.
Scottish raiders merit close attention
At a similar price, the two who appeal are the pair based in Scotland, namely Mighty Thunder and DINGO DOLLAR.
The former has shown next to nothing in two starts since his Charlie Hall comeback run and has undergone a breathing operation during his recent layoff. His record over marathon trips last year is superb, though, and something like his 2021 peak performances would give him some sort of chance off a mark of 147 here.
However, I’m convinced Dingo Dollar should have won last year’s Scottish Grand National and his trainer Sandy Thomson probably couldn’t believe what he was seeing as stablemates The Ferry Master and Dingo Dollar effectively cut each other’s throats by going at it some four fences from the finish.
Mighty Thunder ended up nailing Dingo Dollar, who had made most of the running, after the last which must have really hurt connections, but they’ve plotted a path to this race instead this spring and he looked in good shape earlier in the season when third behind Aye Right and Good Boy Bobby in the Rehearsal at Newcastle.
He comes here officially 3lb wrong which isn’t ideal but I’m happy to scrap the recent spin over an inadequate trip at Kelso, where the deep conditions didn’t play to his strengths either.
Drying ground on a flat, left-handed track is much more his bag and if able to get into a rhythm just behind the real pace-forcers, he's just the type to give 2013 winning rider Ryan Mania a good spin.
Shan Blue appears on the skinny side at 5/2 (and shorter) for the Betway Handicap Chase having been outclassed in the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham.
He was going to win the Charlie Hall by a wide margin before falling three out at Wetherby prior to that and he's clearly open to plenty of improvement as a three-miler, but he didn't exactly shine in the Mildmay here last April when ultimately beaten 32 lengths by Chantry House.
ESPOIR DE ROMAY was looking the likely winner of that Aintree event before falling two fences from the finish and while his season hasn't exactly gone to plan this time around, he has been dropped 5lb following slightly underwhelming efforts at Carlisle and Kelso.
The comeback run behind Fiddlerontheroof at Carlisle looked like a race he might have needed following the summer off but he then spent over four months off the track so perhaps not all was well and he showed quite a bit more spark when third in the aforementioned Kelso race contested by Dingo Dollar last month.
Heading to the second-last he looked to have a massive chance when hitting the front, only to be passed by Nuts Well and Hill Sixteen on the run to the last, before battling on admirably again on the run-in.
That had all the hallmarks of another race that might just bring him on fitness-wise and if Kim Bailey - who won this event 12 months ago with Happygolucky - has had a smooth passage with the horse in the interim, I feel he's the one who could pose the market leader significant problems.
Published at 1600 BST on 08/04/22
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