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Antepost Value Bet: Saturday April 4
1pt e.w. Twig in Randox Grand National at 100/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral, 1/5 1,2,3,4)
Click here to back Twig for the Grand National with Sky Bet
The unveiling of the National weights doesn’t come with the same cupcakes and fireworks as used to be the case, but I can’t be alone in being a big fan of the BHA keeping their ratings tinkering to a minimum which seems to have become common practice at this time of year these days.
The Randox Grand National is all the better for it and, on top of that, there’s no escaping the fact that the current iteration of the race - extremely forgiving fences and reduced field size - does appear to be attracting classier horses than ever which was evidently one of the intentions of the most recent Aintree amendments.
Willie Mullins had eight of the 32 runners who eventually lined up last year (two late NRs) and has assembled another predictably strong outfit, with impressive 2024 hero I Am Maximus needing to defy an 8lb higher mark if he’s going to double up. The Thyestes winner Nick Rockett, bet365 Gold Cup victor Minella Cocooner and last year’s National seventh Meetingofthewaters are all in with some sort of a shout for Closutton too.
I Am Maximus does look up against it on the face of things, but I wouldn’t be reading too much into his low-key Grade 1 efforts so far this season and it was a little surprising just how well he took to the place given his earlier jumping frailties. On the day, he got away with a couple of slightly untidy leaps and plotted a lovely inside route before the gaps finally opened up after all the jumping was done.
With that in mind, could Inothewayurthinkin effectively be the next cab off the rank for owner JP McManus?
He’s certainly not been foot-perfect at his fences from the outset but landed a famous gamble in last year’s Kim Muir before following up in top-class company at Aintree, where he readily accounted for Iroko, Heart Wood and the Ultima Handicap Chase winner Chianti Classico.
A running-on fourth to Galopin Des Champs in the Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown earlier in the month, Inothewayurthinkin finished 10 lengths closer to the brilliant winner than I Am Maximus achieved in the same race at last year’s DRF, and he looks to have been brought to the boil at the right time by trainer Gavin Cromwell.
A mark of 160 is plenty stiff enough for him too, mind, and Cromwell has three other credible contenders in Paddy Power winner Perceval Legallois, 2023 Aintree second Vanillier and the resurgent Stumptown, who I had a few quid on at 33/1 when first looking at the race over Christmas.
I can resist the general 20/1 about him now, although that will inevitably tighten up again if he lands the cross-country chase at Cheltenham – remember, there are no winners' penalties added once the weights are published.
Which leads us onto a few more who could realistically enhance their claims and head to the National 'ahead of the handicapper' to varying degrees.
BoyleSports Irish Grand National winner Intense Raffles is set for a switch back to fences in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse - the same race I Am Maximus took in en route - while it’s not hard to imagine Grangleclare West or Monty’s Star being placed, or at least going well, in the Gold Cup and potentially looking to make a swift turnaround just three weeks later in early-April.
Yeah Man (another for Cromwell) or Fontaine Collonges could enhance their claims in this Saturday’s trial at Haydock, while horses like Broadway Boy and Senior Chief are possibly in line for the Ultima at Cheltenham.
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The vast majority of those mentioned so far are obviously trained in Ireland but it's worth recalling that British-based horses sat in the first four places jumping three from home last year, and I reckon there's one being completely overlooked who might be able to have a big say.
Not only does former point-to-pointer TWIG have some very smart form to his name, having split Chianti Classico and Meetingofthewaters when runner-up in the aforementioned Ultima, but he’s had a pretty shrewd National-centric campaign too, not unlike Intense Raffles, in that he’s only raced over the smaller obstacles this time around in order to look after his mark.
They might be cutting it fine, but I’d be hopeful he could just sneak in off 146 which was precisely the cut-off point last year.
Trainer Ben Pauling, who confirmed this week that the Grand National remains “very much the plan”, is now on the lookout for a suitable chase in order to see Twig meet all the qualification criteria, with a 0-150 veterans’ event at Newbury on March 1 currently on the radar.
Click here to back Twig for the Grand National with Sky Bet
Skipping Cheltenham this time and finding as weak a race as possible for the final prep run a month in advance of the big target looks a great move for the 10-year-old Twig, who wasn’t quite at his best over the regulation fences at Aintree last spring but did have a legitimate excuse (signs of post-race ataxia) on the back of a hard race around Prestbury Park the time before.
Evidently back to full health following a summer break, he looked as sprightly as ever when following home Beacon Edge in the Grade 2 West Yorkshire Hurdle at Wetherby on his early-November comeback.
He’s looked dead against the very testing ground in two subsequent starts at Haydock and Cheltenham, but in truth ran a good bit better than the finishing position suggests (beaten 10 lengths without being unduly punished when chance had gone) last time and history suggests a flat track probably suits him best anyway.
In hindsight, he ran a mighty race at the Festival last year, sitting prominently throughout and battling all the way to the line while giving every indication that marathon trips would be in range.
A bit of a throwback in some respects, Twig is a largely unconsidered 100/1 chance and yet there are definitely reasons to believe a modern-day National might be right up this horse’s street. At this point in time, I can’t see anything else I’d rather support and would be happy to take 66/1 or bigger ahead of his next intended start which should reveal so much more.
Published at 1600 GMT on 11/02/25
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