Grand National preview: Graham Cunningham on the big Aintree questions

Old flame flickers again as National shows its latest new face

Long-term relationships often follow a familiar path.
The early days of romance and risk make a heady cocktail.
But time can dilute the brew.
Passion dims as we fret about how others see us.
And, slowly yet surely, we swap sparks flying for safer, sensible options.
Those seduced by the National’s wild old ways don’t look as we once did.
And Aintree’s flagship has had multiple procedures in a bid to age gracefully.
But now and again that primal flame flickers inside all of us.
Maybe the old race isn’t as good as it once was.
But, who knows, maybe it can be as good once as it ever was?

……………………….

Will the latest changes make a big difference?

• Let’s canter through them….
• Field size cut from 40 to 34
• Off time brought forward from 5.15pm to 4pm
• Standing start
• First fence brought 60 yards closer to the start

Another nip here, another tuck there, but still no sign of racing drawing a line to say: ‘We believe the National represents a fair test for horse and rider'. And the latest alterations, imposed after Hill Sixteen sustained fatal injuries at the first amid a febrile protest atmosphere last year, took many by surprise.

The cut from 40 has been in the wind for ages, mind. A desire to take the sting out of the early pace makes a shorter run to the first understandable, while the standing start, another device to calm the heat map, is all very well until the hot favourite plants himself as the tapes go up.

And two reasons have been cited for the return to an earlier start. Reducing tension during a long build-up as the ale flows freely seems sensible. But the notion that starting at 4 o’clock rather than 5.15 will ‘help maintain optimal jumping ground?’ C’mon man.

Put simply, success has many fathers and failure is a bastard. If Chamberlin and Luck close their ITV and RTV shows with a cheery smile next Saturday then the latest surgery will be hailed as (another) new era for the National. And if they don’t. Well, you know the rest.

Is it time to ‘Make Becher’s Great Again?’

Old time jocks used to say it was ‘like jumping off the edge of the world’ but these days it struggles to get viewers on the edge of their seats.

Don’t get me wrong, nobody wants a return to the days when Julian Wilson called Little Polveir and the rest of the 1989 National field down to Becher’s Brook on the second circuit by telling a huge once-a-year BBC audience that “they’re being forced to the right to avoid a dead horse.”

But what if I told you that the next National runner to fall or unseat his rider at Becher’s will be the first since 2018? And what if I added that Becher’s has been similarly incident-free in every Topham Chase since 2016?

Relatively small samples can mislead and maybe the world’s most famous steeplechase fence will bare its claws this year. But nothing symbolises the changing face of the modern National more than recent stats relating to obstacle six and 22.

Maybe that’s a good thing. Or maybe it’s just a little too much of a good thing.

Is Corach Rambler another Tiger Roll?

Various metrics can be called on when assessing whether last year’s National winner can follow up.

Tiger Roll is the only one since Red Rum in 1974 to do so – though nine horses have hit the frame when trying to retain their crown - while the RP’s Chris Cook trawled the last 40 years to reveal that placed horses in the Gold Cup have form figures of 240FBFP471U2FF45 when their next start is the National.

It’s significant that the ‘1’ in that otherwise uninspiring sequence was Rough Quest, who was way ahead of his official mark (152) after finishing a clear second in Imperial Call’s Gold Cup after the Aintree weights were published.

Corach Rambler was 10lb well in for his 2023 National success after his second Ultima win and he’s ahead of the game again this time, the BHA’s Martin Greenwood rating him 3lb better than this year’s Aintree mark (159) and Timeform giving him a career-high 164 after “a superb Grand National trial”.

So what’s the catch? It isn’t his jumping – he has a safe, highly effective technique – and his stamina is copper bottomed. But Corach Rambler went to a tough place at Cheltenham, all out with his head held typically high close home.

That hard race isn’t quite enough to make me say he won’t shine again. But it’s enough to stop me thinking he’s a value bet at 9/2.

Can Van be the Man this time?

Have I Told You Lately that the last ten National seconds who came back for another dig the following year boast form figures of F9U0UFP0UP?

Any Second Now, Pleasant Company, The Last Samuri, Saint Are, Balthazar King, Sunnyhillboy, Comply Or Die, McKelvey, Hedgehunter and Royal Auclair were the tepid ten, while the luckless Clan Royal – worn down by an inspired Graham Lee on Amberleigh House in ‘04 – was clear and devouring Aintree’s big fences when carried out by loose horses at the second Becher’s twelve months later.

Sean Flanagan summed things up neatly by saying “I probably found myself too far back” after Vanillier charged into second last year and Gavin Cromwell has surely had April 2024 ringed in the diary ever since. He’s younger than most of the National seconds who failed to shine twelve months later and his Bobbyjo second to I Am Maximus was a clear step in the right direction.

So why do I feel somewhat vanilla about Vanillier? Hard to say. Maybe it’s because of the plain record of returning runners’ up but, on balance, he falls into my ‘won’t back, don’t lay’ category.

Is Maximus equipped for the National Coliseum?

‘My name is I Am Maximus Lurchius Leftius, commander of the army of Carlow, general of the JP legions, loyal servant to the true Emperor Willie, by the same sire as Tiger Roll, winner of the Irish National, and I will have my vengeance, and give my rider palpitations, in this race or the next.’

Close your eyes and you can almost hear Russell Crowe’s gravelly tones laying down the hype track for this Flat-bred gladiator. And close them again every 15 seconds or so if you lump on a gelding whose jumping raises clear concerns about his Aintree credentials.

Yes, I Am Maximus brings formidable galloping power to the arena and Pineau de Re and Rule the World both shrugged off jarring blunders to win recent Nationals. But I Am Maximus has 30 chances to leap to the left at Aintree.

History suggests he’ll take a few of them. And that’s a big worry for those hoping that Willie can doff his trilby in the winner’s circle and ask: “Are you not entertained?”

What about the rest of the Mullins legion?

I prefer the progressive profile of high-grade handicappers like Meetingofthewaters and Mr Incredible to the Graded race credentials of Capodanno, Adamantly Chosen and Stattler.

Mr Incredible did plenty right until Brian Hayes came off him in about six painful instalments after his saddle slipped at the second Canal Turn last year.

His belated return in the Midlands National was a strong effort, while Meetingofthewaters has made huge strides since joining the Mullins team and is still fairly treated judged on his excellent third in the Ultima.

And the Elliott massive?

Doubtless Big Gordon will do some pruning at the next acceptance stage on Monday but as things stand it’s bizarre to realise that he has ten of the top 34 in the weights – and every single one of them can be backed at 33/1 or bigger.

A ‘bed blocker’ debate is one for another day but, as the market suggests, the Cullentra clan seeking to give Elliott a fourth National are a decidedly mixed bag including suspect stayers like Conflated and Coko Beach and a few others who’ve lost their way.

The 2022 third Delta Work deserves a mention, not least because he made a mistake at the first last year that gave Davy Russell nowhere to go but down on a quietly fancied stablemate. Galvin was going nicely at the time and, although it’s a real speculator, this former G1 winner might be the pick of the Gordy gang granted better luck this time.

Is Mahler on a Mission that’s possible?

I sincerely hope so.

PANDA BOY’s light weight and clear promise in a series of major Irish handicaps means I will have to risk a few quid on him but my main bet for this year’s National is MAHLER MISSION.

John McConnell’s gelding arrived on my Aintree radar as a novice – notably when falling two out after leading his rivals a merry dance in the National Hunt Chase – and cemented his place with two fine runs in the latter part of 2023.

Mahler Mission edged left at his fences and couldn’t match the upwardly mobile Thunder Rock over two and a half miles at Carlisle but he galloped on willingly and ran a lifetime best back up in trip for Newbury’s Coral Gold Cup, faring much better than the other pace setters and staying on willingly to finish a clear second with a couple of subsequent big handicap winners well back.

Trends followers will feel his lack of a run this calendar year is a negative but McConnell, who reported that his stable star lost both front shoes during the Newbury race, has been anxious to head to Aintree as fresh as possible.

And, for all that the demands of the National have changed, Mahler Mission’s blend of bold jumping and eager galloping mark him out as the sort who could really take to the task.

One final yet notable point on this gelding. Regular exchange players will be aware that Mahler Mission has failed to seal the deal after trading at 1.32, 1.37, 1.55 and 1.62 in the latter stages of his last four starts.

Perhaps that means he isn’t the strongest of finishers when push comes to shove, but I’m not convinced about that theory. A proven deep ground performer with scope for further improvement after just seven chases, Mahler Mission has a lot of what I tend to look for in a modern-day Aintree hopeful.

His eager style should put him in the mix from an early stage and I’m happy to take a decent swing at 16/1 and let the In-Running lads nibble away at much shorter prices if he gets into the same powerful rhythm that saw him put high-class rivals in trouble at Cheltenham last March and Newbury in November.

How can a previous National winner and a Gold Cup winner be 20/1?

Maybe because they aren’t that well handicapped? Noble Yeats is 18lb higher than for his 2022 Aintree win and only 1lb lower than when plugging on into fourth last year. His stamina and agility will stand him in good stead again but whether he’s weighted to go close from a mark of 165 remains to be seen.

And ratings are central to Minella Indo’s chance, too. Three years have passed since his Gold Cup win and he’ll need to run to 165 plus aged eleven to join one of the most exclusive clubs in racing. Good luck to him but, with respect to Henry de Bromhead’s warrior, I doubt he’s another Golden Miller or L’Escargot.

What price an English winner?

There hasn’t been one since Many Clouds in 2015 and logic suggests the drought will continue.

Latenightpass has thrived over the National fences and round Cheltenham’s cross-country course but whether he will relish this stamina test is another matter. Nassalam demolished his Welsh National rivals in a bog at Chepstow but did considerable damage to his handicap mark in the process. Galia Des Liteaux has something to recommend her if back to her very best but Eldorado Allen reportedly ‘made a noise’ when pulled up at the Festival - and it wasn’t the noise of a potential National winner.

Maybe the Welsh, then?

They’re certainly due – as Kirkland (1905) remains the only Welsh-trained winner – but State of Play and Cappa Bleu hit the frame five times for Evan Williams and the latter’s namesake Christian has a market springer in Kitty’s Light.

Last year’s Scottish National hero tends to come to life in the spring but he’s hard to back on this season’s form and yet another wet week could be problematic for him.

And what about fellow Welsh wizard Mac Tottie? Peter Bowen’s gelding has the option of bidding to repeat his win in the 2022 Topham and his stamina for the National isn’t assured. But certain horses come to life at Aintree and, for all that he’s out with the market washing, I wouldn’t be in a hurry to toss this lad.

And what price a National runner?

Finally for this year’s National File, someone I respect messaged recently to scold me for saying BHA boss Julie Harrington should be laughed at for saying UK jumps trainers are ‘more than a match for their Irish counterparts.’

I fretted about whether my wording was unfair and perhaps it was. But then here comes the National with a five-year sample showing that Ireland have been responsible for 17 of the last 20 horses in the first four and look poised to supply an astonishing 29 or 30 of the 34 runners on Saturday.

The notion that the best horses are channelled into a handful of Irish stables is embedded in the core of this debate but, for all it has a different complexion to Cheltenham G1 contests, the way that this year’s National fancies were sourced makes for fascinating reading.

• Noble Yeats - €6,500 Euro in 2018 and £75,000 at Cheltenham in 2019
• Vanillier - €40,000 at Goffs in 2018
• I Am Maximus - €26,000 at Arqana in 2017
• Panda Boy - €9,000 and €31,000 at Tatts Ire in 2016 and 2019
• Mahler Mission - €4,200 at Tatts Ire in 2019
• Galvin - €34,000 at Tatts Ire in 2017

You want me to go on? No problem….

• Meetingofthewaters - €18,000 at Tatts Ire and Goffs in 2017 and 2020
• Minella Indo - €24,000 at Tatts Ire
• Mr Incredible - €25,000 and €75,000 at Tatts Ire in 2016 and 2019
• Capodanno - €12,000 at Maisons-Laffitte in 2017
• Chemical Energy - €21,000 and €38,000 at Tatts Ire in 2016 and 2018
• Coko Beach - €38,000 at Arqana in 2017

As you can see, a raft of leading Irish National hopes could have been bought for relatively modest money in their early days. Maybe they would have scaled even greater heights had they found their way into UK stables. But if you believe that then I have a bridge you might be interested in.

Never mind more than a match. And never mind qualifying races. At this rate, Aintree will have to follow Wimbledon by dishing out Wild Cards to maintain interest in how the plucky Brits are getting on.

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