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Randox Health Grand National: Long-range fancies
Our racing team of Ben Linfoot, David Ord and Matt Brocklebank offer three long-range fancies for the Randox Health Grand National at Aintree on April 14.
Ben Linfoot - Captain Redbeard
There were almost 40 years between Randox Health Grand National winners from Scotland when One For Arthur finally followed up Rubstic’s 1979 victory last year, but hopefully with the monkey off the back the Scots can strike again a year on.
I’m hoping so, anyway, as CAPTAIN REDBEARD, trained north of the border by Stuart Coltherd, looks to be underestimated at big prices including 100/1, odds that look inflated because of who he is trained by rather than his own profile.
His own profile is a good one as far as his Aintree chances are concerned. Crucially, he’s got form over the fences after finishing sixth in the Grand Sefton in December, a race in which he was severely hampered four out.
Still, he was going well at the time and had looked nimble over the Aintree birch. Admittedly, he was on and off the bridle a bit, but that was over 2m4f with his form improving as he has stepped up in trip subsequently.
He won the Tommy Whittle, easily, at Haydock two weeks later, a victory that increased his mark to one that should see him sneak in the National at the bottom of the weights. He was second to The Dutchman in the Peter Marsh off his new mark at the same track after that and he ran perfectly well in second in the best race he's ever run in.
A mistake four out didn't help, but he'll get an 8lb pull at the weights with the winner at Aintree and that could well be enough to turn the form around.
Last time he prepped for Aintree with a nice win over hurdles at Ayr when all eyes were on the Imperial Cup card at Sandown. He dropped back to 2m4f and idled on the run-in, but he got the job done again and that should put him spot on for Liverpool.
The distance is an unknown as he’s never gone farther than the Peter Marsh trip (3m 1 1/2f), but he shapes like a strong stayer, jumps well, has form over the fences and is in the form of his life. At big prices, he’s a perfectly viable long-range fancy, especially as he looks versatile when it comes to ground conditions.
🏇🏻 Our racing team offer their long-range fancies for the Randox Health #GrandNational at @AintreeRaces on April 14th.
— Sporting Life (@SportingLife) March 27, 2018
💥 There’s even a 100/1 tip from @BenLinfoot! pic.twitter.com/RjAJR0IYsb
Dave Ord - The Dutchman
Now there’s a leap of faith involved here – given Colin Tizzard’s charge broke blood vessels when pulling up in the Haydock trial last time – but he’s been given time to recover and even with the Beast From The East still threatening to whimper in this weekend – the ground at Aintree can’t be anything like the quagmire of that day.
He’d been progressive prior to that – thumping the pedestrian Captain Redbeard in the Peter Marsh Chase before that. He jumps well, stays forever and at eight we might not have seen the best of him yet. There are far worse 50/1 chances to have on your side at Aintree.
Matt Brocklebank - As De Mee
Aintree experience has always been a fairly significant pointer when it comes to races over the famous fences and Paul Nicholls' AS DE MEE has become a bit of a regular over the past couple of seasons, with four previous outings over the National course under his belt in total.
Two of those have come in the Topham Chase in April, where he has run with credit on each occasion – finishing seventh to Eastlake in 2016 and fifth behind Ultragold last spring – while his best performance arrived when slamming his rivals in the Grand Sefton over the same two mile, five furlong trip in December 2016.
That impressive five-length victory was achieved from a mark of 137 so he’s got a significant task on his hands as he looks to defy 149 now, but there are reasons to believe he has improved again this season.
His win at Kelso earlier in the current season – incidentally, in the same race won by One For Arthur at the start of his National-winning campaign – came from a mark of 145 and he defeated a class horse there in Wakanda.
He unseated in the Becher back in December but was given some time off subsequently and returned with a reasonable effort at Kempton, when travelling well for a long way before looking like the run was needed.
He’s drifted in the betting for the National on the back of that performance which looks a bit unfair and given he’s still so unexposed as a stayer, he looks worth backing each-way ahead of his return to Aintree, where he clearly thrives.