Timeform highlight the key trends to keep in mind for the Aintree Hurdle at the Grand National Festival.
Aintree Hurdle
15.30 Aintree, Thursday
Former Champion Hurdle winner Epatante comes out much the best on Aintree Hurdle trends, ticking all bar one of the five boxes, whereas all six of her rivals match only a couple of criteria at most. Most importantly, Epatante has an adjusted rating of 177 – the last ten winners all had adjusted ratings of 170 or more – and, also like all the most recent winners, she comes here after running at Cheltenham. The latter trend is something she shares with rivals Zanahiyr and Glory And Fortune, and in finishing runner-up to Honeysuckle in the latest Champion Hurdle she had that pair behind her in third and fifth respectively at Cheltenham.
The one box Epatante doesn’t tick is that for being a winner at two and a half miles – she has never raced at much beyond two – but as the table shows that’s the least important condition for an Aintree Hurdle winner to meet, with only seven of the last ten winners having won over the trip before.
Besides Epatante, Zanahiyr and Brewin’upastorm are the only others to have the all-important 170+ rating but neither are Grade 1 winners over hurdles yet. Zanahiyr, though, has been runner-up four times at the top level in the last twelve months, including when chasing home Honeysuckle in the Irish Champion Hurdle, whereas Brewin’upastorm was only fifth in last year’s Aintree Hurdle on his last try in Grade 1 company.
Brewin’upastorm was a course-and-distance winner in November which makes him one of only two in the field who can boast a win at this distance, along with McFabulous who was runner-up in the Relkeel Hurdle at Cheltenham in January which Brewin’upastorm looked likely to win when falling at the last. Instead of at the Cheltenham Festival, Brewin’upastorm’s last run came when second in the National Spirit Hurdle at Fontwell when finishing in front of both Guard Your Dreams and Monmiral.
