Lewis Tomlinson takes a look at the changing shape of the Randox Grand National following the initial entries for the 2024 renewal.
What should a “modern” National look like?
That’s the question which continues to split opinion amongst racing fans and professionals; traditionalists bemoaning the lack of a “proper” test in comparison to the mammoth obstacles of yesteryear, with others taking a more cautious, safety-first approach in a bid to better protect those competing in the race, and in turn, protect the social licence of the sport as a whole.
There’s no question as to which side of the (levelled-off) fence officials at the BHA and Aintree have come down on, with the most recent alterations undoubtedly the most significant changes to the make-up of the Grand National since the introduction of a plastic core to the fences before the 2013 renewal.
Alongside tweaks to the position of the first fence and adjustments to pre-race proceedings, the 40-runner cap, which had been in place since 1984, has now been reduced to 34.
Notable trends have also begun to develop since the return of the Aintree showpiece following the pandemic. In the 2021 renewal – famously won by Rachael Blackmore aboard number 35, Minella Times - all 40 runners were rated higher than 145, keeping fancied runners such as Welsh National winner Secret Reprieve out of the contest. Last season, however, the quality had dropped drastically while a fifth of the field competed from out of the handicap - Born By The Sea, officially rated 137, becoming the lowest-rated runner to take part in the race for a decade and the only one of that octet to finish in the first 10.
Whilst it’s highly unlikely we’ll see another decrease in a 34-runner National, it seems all but guaranteed that the already sizeable quota of entries and runners from Ireland will continue to grow.
Those from the Emerald Isle are responsible for 61 of the 94 entries in this season’s race, meaning that, even allowing for the diminished field size, UK-based trainers would be unable to fill the field at the entry for the second successive year. Perhaps even more concerning is the fact it’s notably fewer than those made by Gordon Elliott (26) and Willie Mullins (13, though notably not Gaillard du Mesnil) combined; Elliott’s battalion even deeper than the 22 he put forward for the race in 2019, where he eventually saddled 11 runners on the day.
Only six of those British-trained entries are rated above 150, topped by Gary Moore’s Welsh National winner Nassalam (161), with Paul Nicholls’ sole entrant Threeunderthrufive also amongst the group. In comparison, Irish-based yards can boast 25 potential runners in that high bracket, with the 169-rated King George winner Hewick almost certain to be handed top-weight in a fortnight’s time.
It is possible to provide a rough estimate of where the cut will lie prior to the weights launch, with very few horses not given their official ratings in the post-Phil Smith era.
Three entries (hunter chase/point-to-pointers Its On The Line and Samcro and thrice-raced novice Favori de Champdou) are currently without handicap mark, but on the assumption that only Favori de Champdou will be given any chance, it seems likely that, at least before scratching, it will only be those rated above 147 guaranteed a place in the line-up.
Of course, plenty can go wrong in the interim, and the bottom-weight for each of the three post-Covid Nationals have roughly been numbered in the high-60s following the weights launch, with those carrying the 34 saddlecloth all berthed within the 50s.
That still spells worrying news for connections of the fancied Panda Boy, who would have just been able to sneak into the top 34 from a mark of 143 last season, but one I’d make odds-against to do so this year - a 26-strong glut of horses rated between 147 and 144 likely to frustrate trainer Martin Brassil and cause sleepless nights come April for those rated towards the bottom end of that group.
Mister Coffey, who showed up well for a long way in last season’s renewal, also will require more luck than usual to be allowed a second crack at the race, with recent Great Yorkshire Chase winner Annual Invictus and last year’s Kim Muir victor Angels Dawn others who look likely victims of the field reduction.
It’s also worth noting that, for all teams Closutton and Cullentra have plenty of strength in numbers, they are scarcely represented towards the top of the ante-post market, with Cotswold Chase winner Capodanno, who played very little part at Aintree last season, the only horse from either yard priced below 33/1 for National glory this time around. Four of Elliott’s entries, in fact, are rated below the new minimum rating of 130 and would be ineligible to line up on that basis.
Nevertheless, it seems likely that plenty of pre-race chat will centre around the numerical domination of the Irish super-trainers again, a debate which has reared its head once already this season, with Elliott having saddled 14 of the 20 runners in the Troytown Chase.
I’ve long been against the idea of trainer/owner limits or “Win and You’re In” spots for races such as the Grand National – I’ve always thought the fairest way to get in the line up is to run the horse to their merits on the track and ensure it ends up with a high enough rating, but with places in such a prestigious race at an ever greater premium now, it remains to be seen as to whether such lack of equity leads to a decidedly negative impact on the competitiveness of the sport’s biggest event.
The Grand National continues to change as a race, both in terms of as a physical test and in terms in the types of horse it can attract – it’s worth bearing in mind that Rough Quest beat only 26 rivals, only seven of those in the handicap proper, in 1996 – and it seems more than likely that the first major hard-luck story in 2024 will come at 11am on Thursday April 11. Whether that leads to fewer in the race itself, we can only hope so.
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