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Grand National Book Review: Sky Bet trader Richard Horner's guide
Sky Bet head racing compiler Richard Horner with his horse-by-horse guide to the 2018 Randox Health Grand National.
Thunder And Roses
Was an early casualty in last year’s race when travelling ok and has ability when he gets round but jumping has become an issue with him and has fallen on his last two outings. Hardly the ideal sort of prep for the big race but if he decides to put in a good clear round for a change he has the class to figure.
Blaklion
Looked the winner of the race last year when powering clear four out but in hindsight his jockey may have gone for home too soon and was headed at the last fence. Again showed his liking for these fences when winning the Becher Chase here in December but then hardly had the ideal warm-up for this race when walking home in a remote second in heavy ground at Haydock behind Yala Enki. Has undergone a minor wind operation since that run and positive vibes are coming from the yard, but he races off a 9lb higher mark than last year and again stamina doubts may just concern followers over the final furlong or two, if still in contention.
Anibale Fly
The choice of Barry Geraghty from the J P McManus runners and is now the pick of the weights, for which he is now officially 9lbs well-in, following his excellent third to Native River in a very strong Cheltenham Gold Cup and could have been a touch closer without a couple of minor errors four and three out. Should stay the distance well and if his jumping holds up, which is a worry having fallen heavily two starts back at Leopardstown, he must go well.
The Last Samuri
A very good horse over these fences having raced over them on four occasions finishing placed three times, including an excellent second in the 2016 running behind Rule The World. His one disappointing run was in last year’s renewal when only finishing 16th which was a rare below-par run for him when his trainer said he was upset by the delay to the race. As long as that was a one off he should be one of the horses that hits the frame again but with his higher handicap mark he may again find one or two too good.
Valseur Lido
The three-time Grade One winning chaser will be having his first run here in a handicap and on his old form would have a good chance but there hasn’t been much encouragement from recent runs including when last of three finishers behind Koshari at Clonmel last time. Owners Gigginstown House Stud already have the Irish National under their belts this year, but couldn’t back this one on recent evidence.
Total Recall
A much-improved performer this season since joining the Irish champion jumps trainer Willie Mullins and won his first three starts for the yard including when coming over to England to win the Ladbrokes Gold Cup at Newbury. Was running a good race in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last time but was just beginning to feel the pinch when taking a fairly heavy fall four fences from home. Has the class to be competitive but not the ideal prep for a National coming here after a fall, so is passed over at current odds.
Alpha Des Obeaux
A case can be made for him on some of his form including when chasing home Total Recall in the Munster National on his seasonal reappearance at Limerick and he meets that rival on much better terms here but he has been a bit in and out since, including a poor run last time when last of six finishers at Leopardstown. The other worry is that he has bled twice when racing over fences so that must be a worry over this test.
Perfect Candidate
A good servant to his up-and-coming yard with seven career victories to his name including a win at Cheltenham in November. Struggled in this race last year and even though it would be no surprise to see him put up a much better show this time around, it would still be a surprise to see him winning off his current handicap mark.
Shantou Flyer
Produced what was probably his career best effort last time when going down narrowly to Coo Star Sivola in the Ultima Handicap at Cheltenham and is one of the few in the line-up coming here in good form. With 19-year-old top apprentice James Bowen taking the ride he should get a good spin off him and, although stamina will be a doubt, he had no luck last year in the race when badly hampered and eventually pulled up, so a better run this time is very likely.
Tenor Nivernais
Trainer Venetia Williams struck with a 100/1 winner of this race with Mon Mome in 2009 and this one will be a similar price but he was well beaten in the race last year off the same handicap mark. There has been nothing in his two starts this season to suggest a much better outcome this time around and he couldn't be backed on recent evidence.
Carlingford Lough
A five-time Grade One winning chaser, he would have a serious chance on his best form and should be suited to this sort of trip these days. Hasn’t raced since Christmas and he looks as though he has been trained this year with this race in mind and, if taking to it and getting into an early rhythm, could prove dangerous although can sometimes get quite a way behind early and that style of racing doesn’t usually suit the National.
Delusionofgrandeur
Didn’t seem to relish the four mile trip at Musselburgh two starts ago so with a bit further to go here it’s hard to see him winning. A decent third at Haydock after that run suggests he’s got nothing in hand of the handicapper either.
Tiger Roll
Being a three-time winner at the Cheltenham Festival is some feat which he achieved winning this year’s Cross Country Chase which was the same route Cause Of Causes took before finishing runner-up here last year. He has every chance if in similar form and has the profile to go well even though he has no experience of these fences and is only a fairly small horse and was no doubt trained with the Cheltenham Festival in mind.
Regal Encore
Comes here after a win at Ascot once the weights for this race were published so gets no rise in the weights and is theoretically 4lbs well-in but he was beaten off this same mark in last year’s National so although he may not win , a better run is likely coming into the race in better form.
Vieux Lion Rouge
Has run in the previous two Nationals, finishing seventh in 2016 and sixth last year, looking to fail for stamina at the business end on both occasions. Connections have trained him differently this year and must feel there is a chance on him lasting home otherwise they surely wouldn’t be trying again but on what we have seen a similar result looks the most likely.
Chase The Spud
No doubting stamina for this one with him winning the Midlands National at Uttoxeter over this trip on soft ground last season. However, after victory on his seasonal reappearance at Haydock he has run badly twice and pulled-up on both occasions, so couldn’t be fancied here on that sort of form.
Warriors Tale
Owner Trevor Hemmings has bought this gelding to try and improve his impressive National record after wins with Ballabriggs, Hedgehunter and Many Clouds, and this one comes here on the back of a big run when narrowly beaten in the Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster in January. He is normally very consistent and travels strongly, so no doubt his jockey will try to hold onto him as long as possible as there must be a question mark on his stamina at this sort of trip.
Seeyouatmidnight
Looked a potential future Grand National contender when running a close third in the Scottish version in 2016 off the same handicap mark behind Vicente but has only managed four runs since then in two years so clearly hasn’t been the easiest to train. He had his first outing for a year recently at Newbury over an inadequate trip to qualify for the National and after racing prominently for quite a way he tied up badly, no doubt needing the run. Much more will be needed here if he is to figure and it will be a fine training performance from Sandy Thomson if he can manage to pull it off. Has very recently been bought by the owners that tasted success with Party Politics in this race so they must see him as a likely contender although not enough in his Newbury run for me to back here at current odds.
Gas Line Boy
Goes well at Aintree and after looking sure to have won here in October when falling three fences out, he made amends over these fences when winning the Grand Sefton next time out. He has a career high mark to overcome as a 12-year-old but it’s not too hard to see him hitting the frame this year after finishing a gallant fifth in the 2017 renewal.
The Dutchman
Looked an interesting National contender with a nice win in the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock in January when running out a comfortable winner. Things didn’t go as well next time out at the same course though, when he was pulled up after breaking a blood vessel. If that problem does not resurface he has the sort of profile to go well as he is still an unexposed younger horse with the right sort of weight for this test.
Pleasant Company
Was the mount of Ruby Walsh last year and all was going well until a shuddering mistake at Valentine's five from home which knocked the stuffing out of him and he could only manage ninth after that. No doubt he would have finished closer without that blunder but it’s very hard to say that cost him the race the way he finished. Only had two runs this season with no doubt this race in mind and no surprise to see him go well for the Willie Mullins team.
Ucello Conti
Having his third try in the race following a good run in 2016 finishing sixth after a bad mistake at the 19th spoilt his chance and also when unseating his jockey in last year’s race eight fences from home when still in with some sort of chance. A big run on reappearance in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown when second to Anibale Fly who he meets again on 9lb better terms for the seven lengths beaten would give him every chance here, but he did run poorly on his most recent run when pulled-up at Gowran in January and could have done with the ground a bit better to help his chances of getting home over the trip.
Saint Are
Lots of experience over the fences here with mixed results but his CV does include two places in the National including when third last year off the same mark. Two poor efforts this season could be best overlooked as he may be the sort of horse that only now runs to form over this unique test. Hard to see him winning now as a 12-year-old but no surprise to see him run well again and he could even hit the frame for the third time.
Walk In The Mill
In good form earlier in the season including a win at Ascot, but has a poor run at Haydock to put behind him where the very soft ground didn’t seem to be to his liking. Amateur Sam Waley-Cohen has a very good record over the National fences but will be something of a surprise if he steers this one to victory given conditions.
Raz De Maree
Only one teenager has placed in the last 48 years so this Irish raider has that statistic to overcome, but he comes here on the back of a victory in the Welsh National at Chepstow in January and the more rain there is, the better for this mud lark. This will be his third attempt at the Grand National with his best attempt finishing eighth in 2014 and, although wouldn’t be a surprise to see him better that placing, it would be if he won.
I Just Know
Looked an ideal sort of candidate for this type of race when easily winning the North Yorkshire Grand National at Catterick, jumping soundly as usual up with the pace and running out a good winner. He had his prep run over hurdles at Uttoxeter when a test of speed was never going to suit him and he could run a big race for trainer Sue Smith who tasted National success with Auroras Encore in 2013 as he is still fairly unexposed and shouldn’t have a problem with the ground or trip so an interesting contender.
Virgilio
Runs well at Aintree, recording three of his seven career wins at the course, although this will be his first run over these fences. Been a bit disappointing in his two starts this season but has had a wind operation since his last run so, if that has worked, he could be a lively outsider although ideally he would have liked a bit faster ground to give his stamina more of a chance.
Baie Des Isles
A game staying mare who loves soft ground so with the likely conditions she could run a big race here as the form of her third at Punchestown last time looks strong form with the front two that day both going close in the recent Irish National. Only a seven-year-old which have a poor National record but with quite a bit of chasing experience, she will be suited to a thorough test and can give the very capable Katie Walsh, who rode Seabass around here, another good spin. Has been well backed this week and not hard to see why and one of the possible winners if taking to the course well.
Maggio
Another of the teenagers who have the bad record to overcome and he also didn’t seem to take to these fences when last of the ten finishers in the 2015 Topham Chase, which suggests he may well struggle here. The positives are an easy course win two years ago shows he likes the Merseyside air and it does look as though this is the only day that matters this season, so might be one of the big priced horses that surprises.
Pendra
Doesn’t stand much racing these days and this isn’t the sort of test he wants as he showed in the race two years ago. A poor run at the Cheltenham festival when weakening badly as if amiss was not the sort of prep run required and he is easily passed over.
Buywise
Has always been prone to give the odd fence a belt so was a surprising runner back in 2016 in which he did well to get round but was never dangerous under Paul Moloney, who had an excellent completion record in the National before retiring . He showed the ability is still there with a win at Sandown in January but I’m not convinced he wants this sort of stamina test over these fences and I couldn’t back him here.
Childrens List
From the Willie Mullins team and the more the ground dries out the better his chance as he didn’t seem to get home over a shorter trip than this last time out at Punchestown, so the extra distance will be a worry here. Has some fair form to his name including a win over Edwulf, who went on to win the Irish Gold Cup this year, but still it will be a surprise if good enough here on ground likely to be too soft for him.
Lord Windermere
A former winner of the Cheltenham Gold Cup back in 2014 but that was his last victory and he has been fairly lightly raced since, suggesting he hasn’t been the easiest to train. Ran quite well last year to finish seventh and was just starting to make a bit of headway when falling at the tenth in this seasons Becher Chase, so a bit of ability is still there but it will be surprising if he can land another big prize at the age of twelve.
Captain Redbeard
The stable star for his small yard and a credit to connections winning seven times in his career, he comes here in good form after a good second in the Peter Marsh at Haydock and a warm up win over hurdles at Ayr should have put him spot on for this. Stamina would have to be a slight doubt though and the one time he tried these fences he didn’t run too well when finishing a well beaten sixth in the Grand Sefton in December but comes here in better form now so not one you could rule out.
Houblon Des Obeaux
Was a never dangerous tenth in last year’s National from a higher handicap mark when the ground was a bit livelier than ideal for him and warmed up for this with a decent third at Ascot in March behind Rathlin Rose. Soft ground would be an advantage to him as he will be staying on when others have cried enough and wouldn’t be a total surprise if he got in the money at a big price. Mon Mome finished 10th in the National the year before he won it for the same trainer Venetia Williams so could lightning strike twice as the yard is in tremendous form this week with seven winners.
Bless The Wings
A good horse in his time but, after a fall in the Cross Country at Cheltenham, he ran no sort of race from a lower handicap mark in the Irish National less than a fortnight ago and seems a bit harsh making him turn out again here considering the form he looked to be in there.
Milansbar
To be ridden by the top-class Bryony Frost who has made a big name for herself this season including when winning on this fella in the Classic Chase at Warwick in January. She should get another good spin around here as Milansbar has continued in good form and was second in the gruelling Midlands National over this sort of trip, so there’s no worry about his stamina but may find a few better handicapped now.
Final Nudge
Has run some nice races this season including a good third in the Welsh National but he has been running as though stamina may be a problem at this trip as he usually travels strongly but doesn’t quite get home. No doubt the jockey will try and hold onto him for as long as possible to try and nurse him home but he’s an unlikely winner.
Double Ross
Came back to a bit of form when a good fourth in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham last time out after bleeding the time before and has been over the National fences before. His stable have a good record over the National fences but stamina is likely to be a problem here and Blaklion looks very much the stable number one contender.
Road To Riches
Has some very useful form in the past including a third in the Cheltenham Gold Cup in 2015 behind Coneygree. However it has been a long time since he scaled those heights, his latest start seeing him pull up at Punchestown. Hard to fancy on recent evidence.
Summary:
With the hope the ground is still very much on the soft side a chance is taken at a nice price on HOUBLON DES OBEAUX to outrun his odds and could reward each way backers. Baie Des Iles should go well for Katie Walsh too.