Graham Cunningham firms up some fancies for the Cheltenham Festival before taking time out to recall late drama at the meeting in previous years.
Events, dear boy, events
Harold Macmillan’s response when asked what was most likely to knock governments off course seems apt as we reach the last lap of Festival preparation.
Cast your mind back to this time last year:
We didn’t know Hendo’s Festival dream was about to go tits up - or that biblical rain would produce severe conditions – but it seems we are in for a different type of weather event this spring.
Paul Nicholls swore by stockman advice from his late mentor Paul Barber based on which way his cows were facing or some such, while former BBC prognosticator John Kettley had a tidy run providing ‘bespoke’ forecasts in the Simon Claisse era.
It's hard to know where to turn with that pair off the scene but I’ve had a sneak peek at the site Big Tone uses and it seems we’re in for a sustained dry spell.
Time will tell if sprinklers come into play but, with G1 fields taking shape and handicap weights released after a succulent venison lunch, now’s the time to tackle a couple of day one questions:
What price Majborough?
The market tells us he’s a 4/7 shot with L’Eau Du Sud as big as 9/2 but the gap between the Mullins and Skelton geldings deserves to narrow by the time the tapes go up for the Arkle.
Yes, we could be dealing with an ace in Majborough, a massive youngster whose progress has been remarkable, but you don’t want to harbour doubts if you’re having seven to win four in a novice chase.
And at money on, I’m harbouring.
There’s no need to reprise Dan’s idea that Willie’s stars get their own way in Ireland but Majborough hasn’t felt the heat that a high-class, seasoned rival like LDS can bring in two chases thus far.
L’Eau Du Sud is 4-4 over fences with a technique that blends boldness and accuracy and a Timeform rating (156p) high enough to take him very close in all bar a vintage Arkle.
No freebies will be given here, as befits a Festival showdown, and I suspect Harry Skelton can boost his own chance and hinder the jolly if he decides to make it a stern jumping test from a good way out.
Stencil one to cut out and keep?
It’s been a long time between drinks for Brits (and the odd Frenchie) in the Fred Winter but I wonder if we can buck the trend this year?
Le chat is out of du sac with STENCIL but this handsome brute turned heads before and during the Triumph Hurdle Trial, jumping boldly in East India Dock’s slipstream then keeping on willingly to chase home the best juvenile hurdler seen all season.
The Irish squadron surely contains several ahead of their marks again but 135 is fair for Stencil given that he pulled miles clear of a clutch of winners.
Cheltenham form is an added plus as he bids to put French-based duo Noel George and Amanda Zetterholm on the Festival map and, at far longer odds, it’s also worth noting QUANTOCK HILLS.
Highly regarded by Warren Greatrex, this Dieppe winner caught the eye jumping and travelling fluently when dead heating at Cheltenham in December with (possible) Irish plot horse Total Look close in third.
A tame retreat behind East India Dock and Stencil in January was clearly a setback but Quantock Hills impressed with the way he travelled for a good way again and he isn’t one to toss lightly at 20-1 plus.
A new Page for jumping data
Neck a shot every time you hear a Racing TV bod mention RaceiQ data these days and you’ll be pissed as a parrot by race three.
So let’s take a shot at understanding “a new suite of metrics designed to open up the narrative of a race” by placing a numerical value on jumping efficiency.
Page Fuller, a Cheltenham winner on Monbeg Theatre in her riding days, has been busy compiling the RaceiQ Festival preview pack of late.
We agreed to differ in a back and forth about L’Eau Du Sud’s leaping prowess, but Page has kindly compiled a list of three stars to note and three to be wary of based on what Race iQ data reveals.
Galopin Des Champs has never jumped better than on his last two starts, recording an 8.7 out of ten in the Irish Gold Cup and prompting the Fuller to assert “that small chink in his armour has been remedied.”
East India Dock has “jumped incredibly well in two Cheltenham starts by recording an 8.9 and an 8.5,” while one of us could be wide of the mark over Majborough as Race iQ rates him “a solid nine for two chasing efforts as against a 7.7 over hurdles.”
Now to a trio returning to the Festival with ‘must do better’ on their Race iQ cards:
Jasmin De Vaux fans won’t be surprised to hear last year’s Bumper winner has never exceeded 6.3 in three hurdles runs – and look away now if you’ve lumped on Ballyburn and State Man.
“Ballyburn’s jump index of 6.8 is not the lowest in the Brown Advisory field but still leaves a lot to be desired,” adds Fuller, while the numbers suggest “several horses entered in the Champion Hurdle have a Jump Index higher than State Man’s 7.6.”
The preview pack concedes that Race iQ data “is open to some interpretation” and State Man supporters will counter that his method of getting from A to B has carried him to eleven G1 wins in the last three years.
But the Festival has produced a host of late jumping dramas over the years and a suite of suggestions from the SL Podcast WhatsApp group has helped produce the ‘Top 5 Ones That Got Away’ moments:
Cottage industry to no avail
That Thursday night WhatsApp plea means the OLI (Outside Looking In) list here is stacked:
Tied Cottage sprawling at the last and handing the 1979 Gold Cup to Alverton then bolting up the following year only to have the expulsion tool brandished on medication grounds.
Irish banker Nick Dundee prompting a colossal groan from the stands when getting the third last all wrong as a duel with subsequent Gold Cup hero Looks Like Trouble came to the boil in the 1999 Sun Alliance Chase.
McCoy and Walsh walking back together after Don’t Push It and Twist Magic fell two out in My Way de Solzen’s Arkle.
Ruby again as Adamant Approach’s final flight fall handed the Supreme to Like-A-Butterfly; and again as Benie Des Dieux crashed out at the last in the 2019 Mares’ Hurdle.
Vinnie Keane pounding the ground after Latalomne capsized two out for the second year running in the Champion Chase is another for the OLI list but, with all votes counted, the File’s Top 5 Ones That Got Away list reads as follows:
He's over safely – NO HE’S NOT!
2020: At five it’s caller Mark Johnson bellowing “clear by ten widening lengths” only for GOSHEN to bounce Jamie Moore into the shadow realm at the last in the Triumph.
2013: Misery for the Mangan clan at four and Mark on the call again as OSCAR DELTA – two clear and holding Salsify halfway up the Foxhunter Chase run-in – jinked badly left and gave Jane no chance.
2016: Three, that’s the tragic number. Three horses charged down to the third last in the Gold Cup but CUE CARD barely took off for Bishop Brennan, blowing a million pound bonus and leaving Don Cossack to beat Djakadam.
2022: How can GALOPIN’s final fence Turners fall in painful instalments when about to demolish Bob Olinger only be at two? Jonah Jonners was roaring ‘em home yet again and that dread line “he’s over safely, NO HE’S NOT!” still chills the blood.
2015: If you were there, you won’t forget it. The RP’s Lewis Porteous nailed every element of the £50m fall in a fine feature this week and ANNIE POWER’s decision to launch rather than pop at the last with the Mares’ Hurdle at her mercy was a staggering moment. I walked out of the C4 studio in a daze that night - but the sight of Annie and her smiling groom outside the stables as darkness fell was a treat.
Looking for a member’s bounce
You could have cut the atmosphere with a mashie niblick as an expectant crowd gathered for this year’s most anticipated Festival Preview at Ashton Under Lyne Golf Club on Friday night.
True, we were short of a jock saying “I wouldn’t swap him” about his 33/1 poke in the Coral Cup and anyone who came for Punch and Judy banter or “this is a stone-cold cert” will have gone home disappointed.
But RTV sages Dan Barber and Martin Dixon were in good form on a panel chaired by snooker legend John Parrott and, fuelled by a peerless pie supper, notebooks were at the ready.
Martin rates William Munny a decent 12/1 EW alternative to day one banker Kopek in the Supreme but Dan feels the jolly could be cut from different cloth and John (and me) are drawn to Workahead’s slick jumping.
Dan has backed State Man EW for the Champion but Martin and John retain faith in the Constitution and there’s agreement that Transmission and Haiti Couleurs are likely lads for the NH Chase.
Martin expects Ballyburn to “get shorter and shorter” for the Brown Advisory as the weather improves and we’re all in this together in feeling Jonbon handles Cheltenham well enough to land the Champion Chase.
General Medrano and Traprain Law are high on Dicko’s Grand Annual list but John (and me) are back aboard the smooth-travelling My Mate Mozzie train and Dan feels the latter’s handler Gavin Cromwell is in for a strong week with Vanillier much more than Stumptown’s stablemate in the Cross Country.
Dicko dreaming of a special Envoi
The half time raffle takes an odd twist as a four-ball prize goes to the only non-golfer in the room and then it’s on to Thursday and Friday.
Dixon and Barber feel the Ryanair doors are open for Envoi Allen and Djelo respectively at big prices and John thinks Protektorat will be tough to keep out of the places again.
No great love for Teahupoo at skinny odds in the Stayers’ but Martin is warming to Home By The Lee and the rest feel The Wallpark is progressing well enough to make a splash.
Dan bangs the Cromwell drum again for Sixandahalf in the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle and points to Feet Of A Dancer’s record when fresh as a Pertemps pointer, while Martin fancies Springwell Bay for the Plate.
And then, with Parrott pushing the pace, it’s on to day four.
It's a case of why deny the obvious for Galopin in the Gold Cup, though Martin feels Banbridge can give him a shake on spring ground.
Old Timeform habits die hard as East India Dock gets the form nod over Lulamba in the Triumph, though Dixon wonders if Willie has a dark one in French import Larzac.
Jacob’s Ladder gets a gentle nod from Dixon for a brainburning Bartlett and I make a play that could come back to bite me by telling Dan he can have as much as he wants on his fancy Karniquet in a County Hurdle match with 2024 winner Absurde.
Jipcot and Wodooh are high on the M Pipe list for Barber and yours truly. Martin feels No Ordinary Joe will come on a bundle for a Warwick run and wants to be with him wherever he rocks up – and then it’s time to wrap up with nap and longshot of the week.
Dixon is big on Ballyburn and feels Envoi Allen is “massively overpriced.”
Barber and Parrott nominate Kopek Des Bordes and Galopin as bankers with Jipcot and My Mate Mozzie as live longshots, while I sail with East India Dock and Quantock Hills.
And so concludes this event, dear boy. Something will come along to scupper a few careful plans in the next week or so but March is finally here and, after a long, chilly winter the wind of change is in the air.
More from Sporting Life
- Racecards
- Fast results
- Full results and free video replays
- Horse racing news
- Horse racing tips
- Horse racing features
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Football and other sports tips
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
