Aintree is history so do it again at Ayr. That’s the brief for Graham Cunningham, who returned with a bang thanks to Minella Times and Rachael Blackmore last week and now turns his attention to the Coral Scottish Grand National and various other topics.
What’s the ideal profile for a Scottish National winner?
Those who cling hard to historical trends came unstuck at Aintree last week – with Minella Times never having won over three miles going into the race – and it’s hard to pinpoint reliable stats to narrow the field for Scotland’s jumping showpiece.
Big weights can be defied, as shown by dual winner Vicente and the mighty Grey Abbey and Young Kenny, while an even spread of winners aged between seven and 11 shows that oldies and relative youngsters can succeed.
The fact that four of the last six winners have jumped at between 25 and 40/1 shows you shouldn’t be scared of a longshot, but the general advice is to try and identify a strong stayer with the pace to withstand the heat of a big field in which the ability to jump efficiently at speed is essential from a very early stage.
Could Cheltenham form come to the fore?
Vintage Clouds and Aye Right are in fine fettle after finishing first and third in the Ultima Chase and that form was franked when runner up Happygolucky won a smart handicap at Aintree.
It’s hard to knock Aye Right’s consistency – and a win for Jedburgh handler Harriet Graham would be a great tale – but he looks vulnerable to potential improvers from a mark of 154 on his first attempt over an extreme distance.
Vintage Clouds has been beaten three times in this, finishing a fine third in 2018, but he’d been beaten four times in the Ultima prior to getting it right in some style last month.
The cheekpieces he wore for the first time had a dramatic effect at the Festival. Indeed, he jumped and galloped like a revitalised horse and a 7lb rise looks very fair given the zest he showed to bound clear.
How potent is the rest of the Scottish defence?
It’s strong numerically and headed by Dingo Dollar, who came back to form with a vengeance at Newcastle for Sandy Thomson, while Mighty Thunder has thrived over long distances for Lucinda Russell and is fresh from a fine second to the upwardly mobile Time To Get Up in the Midlands National.
Soldier Of Love rates high on the list of southern challengers as he returns from a break on spring ground, but Eider winner Sam’s Adventure has climbed the weights for a rewarding season in the mud and will face a different test unless the continued watering has a significant effect.
Any other Scottish angles to note?
Not a chance. Correction, Notachance. Alan King’s first job in racing was as a teenage assistant to John Wilson at Cree Lodge across the road from Ayr racecourse and, as a proud Scot, he nominated Godsmejudge’s 2013 Scottish National win as a career highlight.
Cheltenham and Aintree went by without much King involvement – leading hopes Tritonic and Sceau Royal disappointing and unlucky respectively – but Notachance heads north with a similar profile to Godsmejudge and plenty to recommend him.
Granted, there is a poor most recent run to forgive, but that’s not hard given that Notachance came back lame when pulled up in the Haydock Grand National Trial.
Prior to that, Notachance had looked a highly progressive and sure-footed young stayer, giving the strong impression he was doing no more than necessary when winning at Bangor before Christmas then defying a 7lb rise in very similar fashion in Warwick’s Classic Chase the following month.
Godsmejudge was reeled in close home by Rigadin De Beauchene in that same Warwick contest prior to his Ayr success and Notachance’s win in that race has worked out well.
Spring ground is a slight concern but this marathon trip will suit him very well indeed, and he’s fair each-way value to resume his progress at double-figure prices.
Where does British jumping go after Aintree embarrassment?
The fact that 10 of the first 11 home in last week’s National were trained in Ireland tells its own damning story. But it takes a closer look at the Aintree replay to reveal how savage a beating took place.
Bar the willing Blaklion, the rest of the home team were languishing near Fazakerley once Cloth Cap capitulated almost a mile from home and, if BHA schedules weren’t already being cleared for an inquest after that 23-5 Cheltenham shellacking, they certainly are now.
The Racing Post’s Chris Cook has revealed that the British handicapping system is to be examined to see if it hands a systemic edge to Irish runners, while the ever-quotable Dan Skelton joined the fray again to say it is “as clear as water” that he and his fellow Brits are operating at a competitive disadvantage in handicaps.
“How many handicaps have you framed?” is the obvious question for those who wade into this complex issue without hands-on experience of rating racehorses for a living.
I haven’t done so. But I’ve worked closely with some highly respected handicappers and I suspect their bafflement at recent events is matched by frustration at the prospect of long-established methods being held up as fundamentally flawed by others with limited knowledge of the craft.
Skelton seems confident the BHA are ready to oversee a thorough review of the challenges British jumping faces, but how much can the governing body really do to alleviate the situation?
Prize money? That’s not changing to any significant degree even once the pandemic abates and, as a result, the heavy hitting owners who base their teams in Ireland are unlikely to reconsider.
Moves to make the British winter jumping programme more competitive are long overdue but the industry and its leading players are wedded to something akin to the current flabby calendar and resistance to major change will surely remain problematic.
Skelton is right to argue that the concentration of elite horses in relatively few hands tends to be cyclical and he and his old boss Paul Nicholls – the pair having saddled over 300 winners between them this season – will spend a sizeable chunk of the summer brooding over how to redress the balance.
Timeform: The leading jumpers
But Timeform’s latest list of top jumpers shows an unprecedented level of Irish dominance, with only Shishkin, Altior and Clan Des Obeaux representing Britain among the 10 best chasers and barely a British name in sight among the top hurdlers.
Time will tell whether we are in for genuine radical reform on this side of the Irish Sea. Such change is clearly needed but the current situation looks less like a cycle and more like the continuation of an era that still has several years to run.
Toro to Strike in smart Thirsk sprint
Skelton and Nicholls only have a handful of Irish challengers to contend with at Ayr on Sunday and it will be surprising if one or both don’t visit the winner’s enclosure.
The Nicholls-trained Tamaroc Du Mathan looks a live danger to trailblazing Arkle fourth Allmankind in the Jordan Electrics Ltd Future Champions Novices’ Chase, but Skelton might have the edge in the Coral Scottish Champion Hurdle as smart German Flat winner Calico has made a strong start to his jumping career and looks well equipped for one of the sharpest tests of speed of the entire season.
But what about a Saturday winner to help set things up for Sunday’s action? Step forward Toro Strike, who reappears in the ebfstallions.com Michael Foster Conditions Stakes at Thirsk.
Richard Fahey’s colt faces some very useful rivals headed by Royal Ascot and Bunbury Cup winner Motakhayyel but he made strong progress until getting stuck in the Longchamp mud last year and this looks a very suitable springboard for his four-year-old campaign.
AP under fire as DJ hits out
When a self-appointed scourge of the racing media calls something “the bravest piece you should read all year” then the rest of us are obliged to look closely.
But closer inspection raises doubts as to whether punchy podcaster and tell-it-like-it-is Tweeter Tony ‘Big Tone’ Calvin was on the mark in waxing lyrical over a column in which the Racing Post’s David Jennings took dead aim at AP McCoy’s punditry prowess.
You can’t pull punches when the headline over your piece reads “McCoy v Ruby - the punditry mismatch between ITV’s two star signings."
Jennings duly came out swinging, arguing that “McCoy still seems to be stuck in the past” before citing chapter and verse as to why Ruby Walsh is streets ahead as an analyst.
Now few would doubt that Reubens has made a smooth transition from saddle to studio but, in waving his cheerleader pom poms for Walsh, Jennings chose some strange lines of attack on McCoy.
The first related to McCoy’s suggestion, delivered in true Roy Keane curmudgeon style, that Tiger Roll wouldn’t warrant comparison with Red Rum even had he turned up to land a third National.
McCoy is dead right, of course, while his later suggestion that Rachael Blackmore “kind of fell off” Jason The Militant in the Aintree Hurdle is, how shall we say this, EXACTLY THE SORT OF NO-NONSENSE ANALYSIS PEOPLE WANT TO HEAR FROM FORMER PROS.
Jennings has had a busy spring one way or another and spent a fair chunk of March telling all and sundry that Gordon Elliott’s actions in posing astride a dead horse were indefensible before, err, defending him zealously in plaintive tones across various media platforms.
And that’s where the Calvin theory falls down somewhat. Bravest piece of the year? It wasn’t even this DJ’s boldest – or most questionable – smash hit of the last two months.
