Graham Cunningham column on the DRF and Cheltenham

Six Nation Army stoked for the second half

‘You can fight it every day
But no matter what you say
You know it
Cheltenham is gonna get'cha.’

Well then.

Cheltenham fever has been slow to get me this winter but January blues recede as the bus from a drizzly Dublin to Leopardstown hums with chat about fifteen bold boys in green and one brilliant black steeplechaser in red and yellow.

It’s a bit too early for ‘Ole Ole Ole’ as a few lads wax lyrical about the way Ireland, revved up by interim boss Simon Easterby with Andy Farrell on Lions duty, dismantled England at the Aviva.

But world-class coaching comes in various forms and, as punters and players limber up for the second half of the Dublin Racing Festival, the RTÉ Sport Manager of the Year could be forgiven for relating more closely with Pep Guardiola’s current edgy situation.

Yes, the big lad up front is still Galopin into the record books after a thunderous third win in Saturday’s Irish Gold Cup and youngbloods like Majborough and Final Demand are staking their claim to fame.

But, in case you hadn’t noticed, a few proven stars have been out of sorts or out of action.

The first Sunday in Feb marks a crucial phase for those who seek to shine at the other Festival and, for all the talk of Mullins monopoly, day two of the DRF looms as a searching test for six previous Cheltenham heroes from Carlow.

……………………

Burn baby burn

Suggestions that a top coach must know how his players will perform are seductive but last year’s DRF - when eight G1 winners included three Mullins market second choices and a supposed fourth string – showed the pack can be open to a late shuffle.

But not in this case.

Ballyburn needs a decisive win to bolster his position as favourite for the Brown Advisory and gets it in the Ladbrokes Novice chase, jumping smoothly at a more suitable trip and forging clear of Croke Park once given two cracks and two taps by Townend.

The gallant runner-up came into the race unbeaten in three over fences with a Timeform mark of 147, identical to Ballyburn’s stablemate Dancing City.

That gelding is also Brown Advisory bound, and a grind in the mud would suit him, but Ballyburn is bred to relish three miles plus and shapes accordingly. He’s now 2/1 to give Willie his seventh win in the race. And, on balance, it feels about right.

………………….

Chairman of the Bordes

Half an hour later and Pep Mullins throws more kids into the big league as Kopek Des Bordes, Kaid d’Authie and Redemption limber up for the Tattersalls Ireland Novices’ Hurdle.

Something’s got to give in a race the stable has farmed for over a decade but the market only wants to know one horse.

That deep, throaty roar rolls off the grandstand again as Townend skirts round a loose one on the home turn and Kopek, jumping like a different horse than the one who took numerous hurdles home with him here over Christmas, simply crushes his rivals.

Winning owner Charlie McCarthy tells RTV’s Nick Luck that “when you see your grown sons cry it’s something you can’t buy.”

Leopardstown’s battered bookies can empathise in contrasting fashion and Kopek Des Bordes swiftly supplants stablemate Salvatore Mundi as Supreme favourite, looking every inch the sort who can give Willie an eighth win in the race.

……………………

Back to the drawing board as Solness strikes again

Just after two o’clock and the bell tolls for a pair of Arkle winners with points to prove in the Ladbrokes Dublin Chase.

El Fabiolo’s nervous groom sprints past onto the track as the blundering boy departs early, while the mercurial Gaelic Warrior never lands a glove, looking more like a potential Reform Party candidate with his increasingly right leaning tendencies.

The eclipse of the big two leaves the trailblazing Solness to hold Marine Nationale and multiple questions hover in the air.

Were Solness and Danny Mullins given too much rope?

Is the runner-up back on track?

And what now for the wayward Warrior and El Fabiolo?

As befits a horse who shares a name with the ruthlessly ambitious lead character in Ibsen’s ‘The Master Builder,’ the winner is constructing an impressive record round Leopardstown.

But Jonbon laughed at him in the Tingle Creek – and that chortling sound you hear is the Champion Chase jolly contemplating a rematch next month.

…………………….

Surreal shootout leaves a strange taste

Willie couldn’t be more right in suggesting that the Irish Gold Cup ought to be the Sunday showpiece but not to worry.

In theory, the queen and king of Closutton’s hurdlers squaring off for the right to take on an ace next month should have been a worthy highlight.

It was very nearly the exact opposite.

Lossiemouth looks lean and lithe compared to the macho, deep chested State Man but the sponsor-free Irish Champion Hurdle ends in gasping anti-climax as the queen goes head first just after halfway, leaving the king well clear having been all but brought down.

My Media Cliches Handbook advises me to type ‘a race that threw up as many questions as it answered’ in circumstances like this.

But it all depends what questions you ask.

Is Lossiemouth ok? Thankfully, it seems so.

How hard was the gallop?

Well, what if I told you that, using RTV’s on-screen splits, Lossie and State Man were duelling hard and 30 lengths or more faster to the fourth last than the leaders in the earlier G1 novice over course and distance?

And what if I told you that State Man ran the first half of Sunday’s contest more like 40 lengths faster than he had when winning the same race last year?

Hats off to Willie for thinking aloud and fronting up to Lucky as the winner made his way back to the winner’s enclosure.

Maybe I’m reading far too much into the fact that his first comment was along the lines of “both jockeys did what they wanted,” something he repeated in another interview later.

But Lossiemouth will have to be one tough mare to peak again for a third consecutive Festival in just over five weeks.

And I wasn’t the only one to leave Leopardstown wondering whether even the rugged State Man – who galloped all over his stablemate’s back end - had endured a less than optimal experience in shining at the DRF for the third year in a row.

Six out of eight ain’t bad

I doubt that data crunching will top the Sunday night session agenda in the Lord Bagenal once another six G1 trophies are tucked away but that’s not to say the rest of us shouldn’t bounce a few facts around with March in mind.

Yes, it’s only a three-year sample but that sample shows Willie’s recent Cheltenham dominance is founded on the ability to get horses who have already established pre-eminence within their division to deliver with uncanny accuracy.

How accurately?

Well, twelve of his last 14 Grade 1 runners at 6/4 or shorter – Sir Gerhard, Allaho, Vauban, El Fab, Energumene, Lossiemouth, Galopin, State Man, Lossie again, Ballyburn, Fact To File and Galopin again – have all obliged with open lengths to spare.

The two who got beat - GDC in the Turners and the cement footed El Fabiolo in the Champion Chase - would surely have added to the banker’s benefit with a clear round.

And the same spell has yielded a remarkable fifteen G1 wins for Mullins first strings, with only Majborough (2024 Triumph) and The Nice Guy (2022 Bartlett) bucking the market trend.

……………..

So far, so persuasive….

But, amid all the plaudits for another dominant DRF, it shouldn’t be forgotten that Galopin and Kopek are the only two Mullins horses who can’t be backed at 2/1 or bigger for this year’s Cheltenham Festival.

DRF devotees can wave their pom poms all they like but the show loses lustre when the prime mover in the modern layaway game leaves Romeo Coolio, Brighterdaysahead, Gerri Colombe and other stars at home.

And the road to Cheltenham glory gets a fair bit steeper when a rejuvenated Hendo is rolling in heavy with Constitution Hill, Sir Gino, Jonbon and Lulamba topping the bill in four flagship events.

Still, history shows that Willie has a happy knack of setting his team up for success wherever the biggest games are played

The final formation remains fluid – doubtless with some nervous head scratching to come – but the Closutton gaffer is priming another squad of around 20 key players for the twelve G1s at the Festival that matters most.

And, for all that the galactico list is slightly shorter than usual, the final score will show that Ireland’s master manager still has ample cause to head back to Cheltenham’s Champions League with a Pep in his step.

……………..

Over the Hill?

‘If you are what they say you are, a superstar

Then have no fear, the camera’s here

And the microphones

And they wanna know-oh-oh-oh-oh…’

A Festival fiasco, as opposed to a Lupe Fiasco, has been averted.

Bruised by hostile media reaction then battered by a powerful putdown from the Racehorse Owners Association, some of Britain’s most truculent trainers have thrown down their arms over a proposed interview boycott.

Phew.

The thought of Nicky’s traditional post-Champion Hurdle montage minus a chinwag with the sobbing septuagenarian would have ruined day one for the moist hanky massive but one vital question remains:

……………………….

Is Constitution Hill still a superstar?

Or, alternatively, do facts care about your feelings?

“He doesn’t feel as invincible as in the past” says the Timeform report on last week’s facile Unibet Hurdle win.

RP renegade Johnny Dineen feels he could be the “lay of the century," whereas Hendo feels he is “a much happier horse than he ever was before” and Nico feels he is “as good as ever” before stifling an ill-advised notion that he could be even better.

Feelings, nothing more than feelings – because we can’t take much more tangible from two runs since a 366-day break – but modern media demands we get off the fence.

Here goes, then….

I reserve the right to regret this statement but my feelings are coloured by the image of Constitution Hill having his arse cracked (four times) for the first time in his life to hold Lossiemouth at Kempton over Christmas.

I doubt he’s the invincible galloping force who destroyed Jonbon in the 2022 Supreme and I’m not sure he’s still the same horse who slammed State Man in the 2023 Champion.

But the quicksilver jumping seems intact; Lossie and State Man have hardly polished their halos; and potential dangers Sir Gino and Brighterdaysahead look likely to be handling other G1 business on March 11th.

Mixed messages everywhere.

It’s still just a feeling, and a strange one at that, but I still suspect the Champion Hurdle is more open than the current market suggests.

But history shows that Festival feelings don’t care much for your facts. The ace is still high after this surreal shootout so best have a hanky ready – just in case he still is what they say he is.

…………

Hales and farewell

An orange faced attention seeker chose a big spot to be very small on Thursday afternoon – and Trump did the same soon after.

In fairness, racing’s version of The Donald deleted a crass Tweet relating to a tragic health update about BHA Chair Joe Saumarez Smith before adding a much more sensitive post about the sad passing of John Hales on Friday.

And the more you recall one of jumping’s greatest supporters, the more you realise what a mark he made.

From Azertyuiop, Politologue and Neptune Collonges to Al Ferof, Noland and the rugged Ryanair winner Protektorat, the names tell the tale of a serious sporting life.

But none matched the swagger of Hales’s first ever winner, a bouncing ball of a grey who finally conquered the Cheltenham hill in the 1998 Champion Chase only to be killed in action at Aintree two weeks later.

Google him if you’re under 40 but suffice to say this bold lad embodied his owner’s zest and energy perfectly. Or, to bend a phrase used in these parts: He was One Man for Some Man.

…………………

On a Downtown train

Can it really be fifteen years since a happy tribe assembled in a dimly lit studio to belt out that Cheltenham promo to the tune of Petula Clark’s 60s smash hit ‘Downtown?’

For those who missed it – and those who wish they had – this was a session packing every bit as much star power as the iconic ‘We Are the World’ video.

Tommo, Andrew Thornton and Lee Mottershead belting it out like Cyndi Lauper; AP McCoy and Edward O’Grady wearing perplexed Bob Dylan ‘what the f*** is going on?’ expressions; and smiling shots of Liam Treadwell, Big Mac, Andy Stewart and Clive Smith reminding us that nothing is forever.

The annual gander at this musical masterpiece never disappoints but the happy hum as the Luas rolls back towards Dublin is dominated by how the last two days will impact on four in March.

Wind it back a year and every sinner on the tram knew that Galopin, State Man, Ballyburn and Fact To File were locked and loaded for short priced Cheltenham success.

But we didn’t know El Fabiolo would kybosh a million multis, nor did we realise Gaelic Warrior and Inothewayurthinkin would leave their erratic DRF efforts way behind to land mighty gambles in the Arkle and Kim Muir; or that Nicky’s Festival dream was about to go totally tits up, for that matter.

The quest to pinpoint plots begins in earnest now as even the old heads start to feel March Madness pangs again.

And with respect to Cyndi and Bob – along with AP, Andrew, Motty, Derek, Edward and the Ole Ole crew - this is a job for Gloria….

So let’s hear it at the back, lads…

‘Cheltenham is gonna get’cha…

Cheltenham is gonna get’cha…

Cheltenham is gonna get’cha….’

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