Graeme North's timefigure analysis of the Goodwood Festival

By Graeme North

10:41 · TUE August 06, 2024

Graeme North provides his timefigure analysis from the Goodwood Festival, highlighting a couple of horses who could have won under different circumstances.

"Those who have been to Goodwood will understand me – those who have not must take my word for it – that there is no lovelier setting for a racecourse. I am not idly mouthing a parrot cry for I know the 'feel' of Goodwood...In common with many racegoers in high summer on these hills, I have felt the lash of rain storming in from the sea and wondered how this, the second highest racecourse in the country, was ever labelled 'glorious'. Then with hope all but drowned, the sun has burst forth to clothe the woods, Chichester, its spire and plain, and beyond – the Channel, in gold and silver." So wrote John Rickman in a fascinating book I have quoted several times before, Homes of Sport: Horse Racing. I can’t say I agree with John having felt out of place on my only previous visit there around a decade ago, but I did enjoy the racing there last week more than most recent Festivals even if the meeting would be even better trimmed back to four days as it once was.

The feature event on a strong opening day eight-race card this year was the Al Shaqab Goodwood Cup, supported by the Lennox Stakes and the Vintage Stakes. First run in 1812 over three miles before being shortened to two miles five furlongs, the Goodwood Cup had its distance reduced to two miles 1991 and finally became a Group 1 race in 2017 when Stradivarius won the first of his four renewals. On a hot day and on fast ground, Kyprios stopped the clock in 3m 21.53 seconds which was the fastest time in the race since Brown Panther in 2013 and faster even than Yeats (3m 21.55) in 2006 though both those renewals were run over six yards shorter and may or may not have had more added yardage than the ten yards Kyprios covered this year given rail movements went undisclosed back then.

A 120 timefigure on the back of a hot pace set by Gregory and then Al Qareem is the best in the race this century surpassing the 118 Stradivarius posted in 2017 and higher still than his previous best (also 118) which came in the Irish St Leger in 2022. Unequivocally, then, the outstanding stayer in Britain and Ireland.

The strongly run Vintage Stakes and the more steadily run Lennox Stakes were won by Aomori City and Audience respectively in timefigures of 101 and 109. In the Vintage the race finishing speed from four furlongs out was 103.8% according to Timeform and Aomori City’s own from two furlongs out returned by Race IQ was 101.7%; in the Lennox (from the same points) the race finishing speed was 108.2% and Audience’s own was 105.1%. The fallout from those figures is that those up with the pace in the Vintage – notably Cool Hoof Luke who once again raced freely as in the Coventry and looks as though he’ll be suited by a drop back to six furlongs in the short term – can be rated much closer to the winner while the credit in the Lennox goes to those who came from well off the pace, notably Kinross who we know is much better than this anyway.

Kinross was arguably the second horse in the first three races ridden from off the pace who should have won. Quite why Rossa Ryan had him so far back right from the off only he will know, but there was no such excuse for Enfjaar in the opener on whom Jim Crowley secured a handy midfield position as the race settled down only to allow his mount to drift to virtually last place turning for home. Predictably, the winning post came too soon for this ‘Group horse in a handicap’ who sectional upgrades tell me should have won comfortably by a couple of lengths.

The Qatar Sussex Stakes on the second day lost much of its interest when the St James’s Palace Stakes winner Rosallion was withdrawn because of a respiratory infection. That meant only five went to post headed oddly as the betting saw it by Henry Longfellow who had finished second at Ascot on a day when the 2000 Guineas winner Notable Speech clearly didn’t give his running.

Notable Speech was clearly over whatever ailed him that day and, much as might be expected from a 2000 Guineas winner, he had too much speed for his rivals in a race that was tactical enough for top-end handicapper and free-running Sonny Liston to still be in with a chance with over a furlong to run (replay below).

Maljoom ran a slightly faster last two furlongs than Notable Speech if unable to match him in the final one, while Facteur Cheval was unable to sustain the momentum that saw him run the fastest third-last furlong, but the result was clearly the right one despite the messy nature of the race (timefigure 117).

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The Oak Tree Stakes saw the only demotion of the meeting when first-past-the-post Jabaara was demoted in favour of Raqiya. In another tactical affair, Jabaara looked home and hosed but ended up edging right and hampering the eventual winner. Finishing speeds and upgrades suggest Jabaara was indeed the better horse but might have had a bigger battle on her hands had fast-finishing fourth Vetiver not come from so far back.

After Big Evs in 2023, Mick Appleby won the Molecomb for the second successive year with Big Mojo so throwing down the instruction that punters need not be afraid of backing one of his thrown into listed or pattern company on just their second start despite having been beaten at a small track on their only previous run.

A 101 timefigure (4lb lower than Big Evs), at the end of a race in which he didn’t run any individual furlong fastest of all but still ran the last quarter mile fastest, is pretty middling these days, so whether he will scale the heights Big Evs has remains to be seen. It would have been interesting to see how the flashing-home Vingegaard would have fared had he not fluffed the start and looked ill at ease on the descent. Coto de Caza ran an identical final two-furlong time and a very similar overall time to Big Mojo in the other two-year-old contest, the Alice Keppel Fillies' Conditions Stakes.

The Group 1 feature on Thursday was the Qatar Nassau Stakes and was, as we saw plenty of times over the week, a triumph of position and in this instance probably planning as well. Drawn wide in stall eight with only two horses outside her, one of whom was Emily Upjohn, Coronation Stakes runner-up Opera Singer was sent straight to the front by Ryan Moore, running the first two furlongs fastest of all and the fourth and fifth too according to Race IQ to obtain a forward position whereas, in sharp contrast, Emily Upjohn was kept wide early and finally allowed to amble into the pack in a far-from-ideal position at the back of the field. See The Fire ran the fourth and third-last furlongs fastest before French Oaks winner Sparkling Plenty (held up as normal) took over that mantle for the remainder of the race, but the damage had already been done.

Sectional upgrades suggest that Sparkling Plenty should have won by a length as it was and maybe a bit further had her rider Cristian Demuro had more experience of the track (it was just his second ride having had a ride in the Oak Tree the previous day).

The supporting Richmond Stakes was a furiously run affair while they went a more even pace in the other Group race, the Gordon Stakes. Black Forza wasn’t an unexpected winner of the Richmond given he had beaten a horse (Rudi’s Apple) on his previous start at Fairyhouse who had subsequently run away with a nursery off a mark of 90 but his task was aided no end by the gallop forced by The Strikin Viking who would have won a shade readily had he been ridden more efficiently. I wrote after his Railway second that he looked the ideal type for the Gimcrack given he already had winning form at York and he did little here to alter that opinion other than he might well be just as effective dropped to five at some point too.

Jan Brueghel took the Gordon in a 100 timefigure, battling on well in the manner of one who’ll relish a mile and three quarters.

Just the two pattern races on Friday, the Thoroughbred Stakes and the King George, and both returned good timefigures. Lead Artist looked a much happier horse back on fast ground in the Thoroughbred than he had on a much slower surface at Newmarket last time and posted a 114 timefigure elevated to 116 once a small 2lb upgrade is factored in, suggesting he’s capable of landing a Group 2 somewhere.

Big Evs had already scored at a higher level abroad – in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint last year – and he landed his second domestic Group 2 in the King George.

Dominating a field that contained so much breakneck early pace was never going to be easy or even sensible, but Big Evs is a horse whose form has gone only one way since doing too much too soon in the Nunthorpe last year and, more streetwise and settled now, he benefited from a well-judged ride tracking Czech speedball Ponntos (oddly partnered by an inexperienced rider and too free as a result) and Live In The Dream to take his form to a new level.

A 115 timefigure is his best yet (runner-up Asfoora posted a 116 after allowances had been made for weight and weight-for-age) but he’ll have to concede weight to the Australian mare in the Nunthorpe having received 5lb from her here.

Big Evs edges out Asfoora

The final day lacked interest in all honesty with little to get excited about either before or after the two pattern races, the Group 3 Glorious Stakes and the Group 2 Lillie Langtry. Al Aasy won the former as his form entitled him to, finding more than he sometimes has after being hemmed in off a steady pace (timefigure just 72) and perhaps helped by there being no cutaway as there had been earlier in the meeting.

The Lillie Langtry was a virtual repeat of the Group 3 Bronte Stakes at York in May with the same three horses who finished first, second and third (Term of Endearment, Night Sparkle and River of Stars) occupying the same positions again on the back of a faster gallop (timefigure 95). Free Wind was another disappointment for the Gosden camp after Emily Upjohn earlier in the week and trailed in last.

Once the feature of the opening day, the Stewards’ Cup was won by Get It in a 107 timefigure which wasn’t far short of the 111 performance rating Timeform credited him with.

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