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Goodwood Tips: Best Value Bets for Stewards' Cup day Saturday August 3
Matt Brocklebank's Coral Stewards' Cup fancy is a non-runner but he still has another selection at a big price at Goodwood.
- Matt Brocklebank's Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Value Bet tips are initially available to logged-in readers through Sporting Life Plus, before the full column appears on the main Sporting Life website and App 15 minutes later.
- Following all Matt’s selections to recommended odds/stakes since taking over the column in June 2020 would have produced over 255pts in profit.
Value Bet tips: Saturday August 3
1pt e.w. Forza Orta in 2.25 Goodwood at 22/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4)
1pt e.w. Ferrous in 3.35 Goodwood at 25/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) - Non-runner
Channon to score in Stewards' Cup
Just over a stone in weight separates top from bottom weight in Saturday’s Coral Stewards’ Cup and there are loads in with some sort of a chance.
Purosangue leaps off the page as he’s officially 4lb ahead of the handicapper running from a mark of 101, having been bumped up to 105 for his close second to Makarova in the Group 3 Coral Charge, and he won't mind the quicker ground or return to six furlongs.
Having said that, the words ‘watered’ and ‘showers’ feature in the official going report on the BHA website so I don’t think we can be totally confident the ground will remain rattling fast through to the conclusion of the fifth and final day.
Along with Palace House winner Seven Questions, Purosangue is one of two three-year-olds in the field which is another plus given the number of their rivals who have far more miles on the clock - and hold few secrets these days.
Three three-year-olds have won the Stewards' Cup in the past decade which is not a bad return at all given only 16 have tried but, given it’s such a unique test, I can’t be backing horses at single-figure prices here and will take my chances on one who looks potentially way over-priced granted a bit of luck.
That horse in question is the grey FERROUS for trainer Jack Channon, who trained Johan to a tee when landing the Golden Mile at this meeting on his seasonal return 12 months ago.
Channon only took over the licence from his old man at the start of last year and has made a really positive impact, with the likes of Gather Ye Rosebuds, Certain Lad and Caenarfon all winning at Listed level this term.
Importantly for punters, it's worth noting that following all of Channon's horses throughout the months of April (+8.00), May (+18.49), June (+14.58) and July (+15.75) this year would have produced a very healthy level-stakes profit, and Ferrous was among those to do the yard proud on the all-weather a little earlier in the campaign, striking six-furlong wins at Wolverhampton and Kempton representing a marked improvement on his final couple of runs from last year.
The winter gelding operation seemed to have done plenty of good at that stage and there hasn’t been anything much wrong with his three subsequent efforts back on turf either, finishing third to Lethal Levi (he's 8lb better off with that rival on Saturday's terms) at Newbury before luckless runs at Ascot and York.
He was sent off only 12/1 for the Wokingham at the Royal meeting only to be hampered at a key moment, and it was a similar story last weekend when denied a clear run from off the pace which isn't an easy place to come from on the sprint course on the Knavesmire.
Connor Beasley - on board that day - accepted his fate almost immediately at York but, in fairness, Ferrous did run on quite nicely late under hands-and-heels to be beaten just over five lengths.
The handicapper has dropped him for that, meaning he's 2lb wrong for this valuable contest, but he’s still only 7lb higher than for the ready win at Kempton in the spring and I’m sure he can be seriously competitive off 97 if the cards fall his way.
Stall 12 may or may not be a good draw – it will all depend on how it plays out and where the pick of the pace is – but Rhythm N Hooves in one should at least give those towards the far side something to aim at, while old rival Lethal Levi is close by in eight and he’s another who should help tee things up for the closers.
Timeform expect a ‘very strong’ pace which is to be expected in a race of this nature and that’s precisely the scenario that could see Ferrous in his best light. The more rain the better I suspect for this son of Dark Angel but he has won on good to firm, a cosy five-furlong success on his only previous visit to Goodwood.
That’s got to be a positive sign in terms of Saturday being his big summer target all along, while I certainly don’t mind the quick turnaround from last weekend either, given last year’s winner Aberama Gold was also lining up here having run in (and won) the Sky Bet Dash seven days earlier.
Orta be shorter back on winning mark...
The betting for the Coral Summer Handicap is dominated by two horses – impressive Newmarket winner Fairbanks who could be looking to pick up a penalty for the Sky Bet Ebor, and Align The Stars who I was all for chancing at a price in Thursday’s Group 3 Gordon Stakes before running plans became a little clearer.
They’ve obviously been hugely progressive of late but still need career bests to defy their revised ratings and are priced up prohibitively, which leads me to look elsewhere for some each-way value.
The one who appeals most is Kevin Ryan's FORZA ORTA, not good enough for an Ebor (though he is entered again) but a capable sort who landed on a nice staying prize at the big York meeting last August.
After just a handful of subsequent starts, the six-year-old is back on the same mark (86), while he also won at York off 85 two summers ago so we know he’s on the right side of the assessor if back to something like that his best.
That’s admittedly quite a big if, but there were signs he might be on the way when sixth of 20 from off the pace in the Northumberland Plate last time and it's a run that could potentially be marked up slightly as winner Onesmoothoperator and the other placed horses all raced towards the near side rail, whereas Forza Orta was out on his own more towards the centre-to-far-side.
The faster the ground the better for him and if the market leaders fail to produce the goods then he looks highly likely to be on the premises when it matters.
Elsewhere, I like the look of probable Ayr Gold Cup project Jehangeer up to seven furlongs in the Whispering Angel Handicap, but Zabriskie Point deserves a mention at a big price in the same race.
He featured in this column ahead of his seasonal return in a competitive three-year-old handicap at Newmarket’s July meeting and ran like it was needed, just getting a bit stewed up (first run after being gelded) beforehand and racing with the choke out, so better could be on the cards off a 2lb lower mark here.
However, his yard has gone cold with just three winners from their past 50 runners (at the time of publication) and I’m not massively keen to oppose the Ryan-trained Jehangeer so reckon it’s the sensible move to take a pull.
Published at 1600 BST on 02/08/24
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