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Value Bet tips: Saturday, August 5
1pt win Live In The Moment in 1.50 Goodwood at 9/1 (General)
1pt win Mr Curiosity in 2.25 Goodwood at 16/1 (General)
1pt win Aberama Gold in 3.35 Goodwood at 18/1 (William Hill)
1pt win Sterling Knight in 3.35 Goodwood at 25/1 (General)
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Let it rain…
The forecast looks grim again for the tail-end of the Qatar Goodwood Festival on Saturday and those who have tried to lay one out for the Coral Stewards’ Cup in the hope of glorious summer sunshine must be wondering why they bothered.
No such trouble for Charlie Hills and Orazio, who hasn’t run since looking a bit uncomfortable on the relatively quick conditions at Royal Ascot when sent off favourite for the Wokingham. He’d won on easier ground at Newmarket and Ascot earlier in the year and there's no getting away from the fact he retains Group-race potential, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see him running over seven furlongs at some stage and I suspect this track won't play to his strength, no matter the going.
I’ll be having a couple of win-only bets again him and the first is ABERAMA GOLD, who looks to back up last weekend's win at York where I thought he ultimately did it pretty cosily (replay below) after having to make his challenge a good way away from Manila Scouse, who briefly looked to have slipped the field on the far side.
In fact, Aberama Gold was the only one in the first four who raced more towards the nearside on the Knavesmire and it’s a win that wants marking up significantly.
He’ll have to improve on the bare form if he’s going to double up in this hotter contest under the 6lb penalty but, effectively running off 95 this weekend, he’s still very fairly treated based on the pick of his form for Keith Dalgleish.
The recent move to in-form David O’Meara has obviously helped sweeten up the six-year-old, who has won on heavy ground in his youth and will be right at home if the heavens open again. He should also get a nice tow into proceedings from the trail-blazing Mr Wagyu who is just one stall away in 14.
The other one to chance at the prices in the Stewards' Cup is STERLING KNIGHT for Ed Dunlop and Tom Marquand.
He won the last time Marquand took the ride back in his juvenile days and, after a decent time of things at three, the son of Camelot has kicked on again in recent months.
He won with stacks in hand two starts ago at Windsor, when not doing a tap on hitting the front, before confirming he was still in great heart with a staying-on third at the same track last time. The way that race developed didn’t see him in his best light as the first two dominated throughout, but Sterling Knight was still beaten under two lengths and his form in cheekpieces (retained here) now reads 311413.
Quite why connections went back to a visor when running against Orazio at Ascot earlier this season, having seemingly hated it when tried once in 2021, is anyone’s guess but the sheepskin aid obviously suits best and he looks like he could be in for a productive end of season having hacked up on heavy going at Haydock last autumn.
He’s got his ground here and looks likely to shorten up in the betting as the rain continues.
Moment to strike
LIVE IN THE MOMENT has let down favourite-backers three times from six starts for new connections so far this season, but we now get the chance to take an inflated price with conditions very much in his favour in the Coral Stewards’ Sprint Handicap, the consolation for the big one.
In fact, he’s not had soft ground all year but loved it when the mud was flying during his time with Adam West, winning soft-ground handicaps at York and Newmarket during a productive 2020 campaign.
His best effort this year came when short-headed by The Green Man off a mark of 84 at Doncaster (good) in May and given the winner has gone up 13lb in the weights following a subsequent success at York, Live In The Moment has a massive chance off 86 here if repeating that sort of form.
We’ve got to excuse a poor run at Hamilton last time but that came just three days on from a creditable third on quick enough ground at Windsor, and he’s since been freshened up with over a month off and returns without the headgear having been mixing cheekpieces and blinkers previously.
Rated 101 at his peak, there’s no doubt he’s a well-treated horse these days and a fast-run six furlongs, with more rain in the forecast, could be just what he’s after.
Wondering why Curiosity is such a big price…
Having gone up just 7lb for his facile victory at Newbury, Sweet William is back out again in the Coral Summer Handicap just a fortnight later presumably in a bid to get him even higher in the handicap so he may stand a chance of sneaking into the Sky Bet Ebor with a 4lb penalty.
That’s far from guaranteed, of course, and a third quick run in less than a month isn’t going to be easy for the son of Sea The Stars, especially on soft ground. There’s nothing in his pedigree to suggest he won’t cope with conditions but he’s been winning this season on good and good to firm going, so he’s a short-priced favourite worth taking on.
Assessing the rest of the field is challenging as it’s a bit of a rogue’s gallery with the likes of Euchen Glen and Tyson Fury on fair marks but not horses you could trust implicitly.
Post Impressionist might be worth another chance off a mark of 95 after his tepid run from a very wide draw on his belated return to action in the Northumberland Plate, while He’s A Latchico’s form has taken off over hurdles and on the Flat this summer, though he’s another for whom genuinely testing ground may prove an issue.
MR CURIOSITY, by contrast, looks one with very little to prove and it’s surprising to see him such a big price after his Ripon (1m4f) win from Chillingham on soft ground last month. A 3lb rise to 92 for that head victory looks more than fair considering just how progressive the runner-up (5/6 favourite that day) has been, and the pair of them pulled over three lengths clear of the third.
Still quite lightly raced for Tim Easterby and unexposed overall after the 13 career starts, the son of Frankel looks a big stayer with loads of heart and even after reassessment he’s still fairly treated based on his best form for Charlie Fellowes which included a five and a half-length win off 87 at Redcar two years ago.
That came at Saturday’s mile and three-quarter trip so there’s no issue with going back up in distance and he should get a nice sit in behind likely pace-setters La Pulga and Torcello through the early stages.
Published at 1500 BST on 04/08/23
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