Glorious Goodwood Day Two Tips: Best Value Bets for Glorious Goodwood on Wednesday July 31

• Matt Brocklebank's Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
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• Following all Matt’s selections to recommended odds/stakes since taking over the column in June 2020 would have produced over 250pts in profit.

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Value Bet tips: Wednesday July 31

1pt win Clockmaker in 1.50 Goodwood at 22/1 (Coral, William Hill)

1pt win Stop The Cavalry in 2.25 Goodwood at 12/1 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Henry could hoover up feature prize

We're unfortunately down to two three-year-olds in Wednesday's Qatar Sussex Stakes and we don’t know for sure precisely where Henry Longfellow and Notable Speech will slot in against older horses for the first time, but Timeform have the Guineas winner 4lb clear of Group 1-winning five-year-old Facteur Cheval on their weight-adjusted figures, and there's clearly potential for a bit more to come from the youngsters.

The Godolphin horse should be a major factor on this track if getting back to form after his Royal Ascot flop but the one who remains on an upward trajectory this term is clearly Henry Longfellow.

His breeding gives a strong hint that he’ll get better and better as the year goes on, his dam Minding having peaked when winning the QEII in the October of her Classic campaign, and he left his French comeback well behind when pushing Rosallion quite hard in the St James’s Palace Stakes.

The other horse of some interest at longer odds is lightly-raced five-year-old Maljoom, who has been a source of frustration for trainer William Haggas ever since his agonising St James’s Palace effort of 2022, but in fairness they do look to have had a clear run with him fitness-wise this year.

The fitting of blinkers could make or break him in terms of being a genuine top-level performer, and plenty of punters will be willing to give him one more roll of the dice, but I’ll hang fire and allow it to play out without the need for a bet.

Stop overlooking Goodwood outsiders

The Visit Qatar Oak Tree Stakes has drawn me in as we’ve seen some surprise results in this over the years and STOP THE CAVALRY could be the latest to massively outperform market expectations.

She's obviously got her work cut out stepping up from a handicap to a Group 3, in which she faces the likes of French Guineas runner-up Kathmandu who is officially rated 110, but it’s still very early days with most of these fillies and Ralph Beckett's runner is brimming with potential.

She found a Listed race at Newmarket too hot to handle on her second start last November but has evidently improved a huge amount since as her belated comeback run at Chester was pretty striking.

Granted, the daughter of Lope De Vega was taking advantage of a lenient-looking mark (87) but the betting suggested she might be in need of the run, having been sent off at 11/1, yet she picked up stylishly to win going away under top weight.

She's only ever competed at six furlongs to this point and only ever run on soft ground (according to Timeform), which obviously raises something of a question mark here, but the longer trip should be well within her range on pedigree and I'm tempted to chance that she’ll get away with the ground on this occasion.

It’ll most likely be the quickest surface she’s encountered but there are some isolated showers in the forecast for the morning and any rainfall would do her claims no harm.

She's from a good family, very much in the right hands to continue her improvement as she matures and looks a big price all told.

Time for Clockmaker to produce the goods?

Earlier on, Andrew Balding’s progressive chestnut Subsequent stands out quite considerably in the Coral Daily Rewards Shaker Handicap and his owners, Jim and Fitri Hay, have more runners at this track than anywhere else.

They clearly target the big meeting and have an obvious chance here, but I’m also willing to consider their other runner, the David Simcock-trained CLOCKMAKER, at much longer odds.

Gelded before he even made the track, the son of Noble Mission has proved to be a bit of a handful on it too, but the debut second behind ill-fated subsequent Chester Vase winner Hidden Law was a promising start and represents fair form in the context of this handicap.

He’s been less manageable in his two subsequent runs, the Yarmouth flop swiftly followed by six weeks off before returning with a first-time hood (retained) at Leicester less than a fortnight ago.

Dropped back to 10 furlongs there, he was still a bit too keen early on but made an attractive move to briefly threaten the leader from three furlongs out, before his run predictably flattened out in the closing stages.

Jamie Spencer will have to be at his finest as the horse goes back up in distance here but the strong pace really should help and, if he's fitter and a bit less fresh for the comeback run, then things could slot into place quite nicely for this horse.

I’m confident he’s ahead of his mark (80) in terms of pure ability and he looks worth the risk on debut in this sphere.

Published at 1600 BST on 30/07/24

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