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Goodwood Tips: Best Value Bets for Glorious Goodwood on Friday August 2
After a 14/1 winner (10p Rule4 applied) with his only tip on Thursday, our in-form expert has a trio to consider on day four of the Qatar Goodwood Festival.
- Matt Brocklebank's Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Value Bet tips are initially available to logged-in readers through Sporting Life Plus, before the full column appears on the main Sporting Life website and App 15 minutes later.
- Following all Matt’s selections to recommended odds/stakes since taking over the column in June 2020 would have produced over 260pts in profit.
Value Bet tips: Friday August 2
1pt win King’s Gamble in 2.25 Goodwood at 11/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Urban Sprawl in 3.00 Goodwood at 10/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt win The Dragon King in 4.45 Goodwood at 8/1 (General)
Worth the Gamble in open Group 3
Goodwood on Friday looks a decent punting card and, for the first time this week, I was in the fortunate position of being able to whittle down a shortlist of potential bets.
A trio made the cut, starting with KING’S GAMBLE in the Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes. This looks quite a good race for a bet as while Al Musmak got the nod before winning with something to spare in Listed company at Newmarket last month (with Socialite and Native American well beaten off), this is a different test on much quicker ground.
It’s not that Al Musmak won’t act on good to firm going – it’s just something could have a bit more natural speed than him around here and it came down to Boiling Point and King's Gamble for me.
The latter is a bigger price than stablemate Task Force but, unlike the Juddmonte colt who now wears a first-time tongue-tie, King’s Gamble is on a clear upward trajectory and could be about to really bursts into life as a three-year-old.
It was almost a little unfortunate (!) that he won first time out as a juvenile, picking up the pieces in a Newmarket novice in which 1/3 favourite Lake Forest flopped, as that meant he possibly went straight into the deep end of the Gimcrack before he’d had time to fully learnt his trade.
He still ran a super race at York, finishing fourth behind a rejuvenated Lake Forest and doing very well in the circumstances as he found himself out on the far wing when the pick of the action was unfolding closer to the stands' side rail.
Beaten just two lengths on the Knavesmire, he was put away for the winter and then reportedly had a few hold-ups in the springtime which meant he didn’t reappear until the start of June when runner-up to a race-fit Socialite at Doncaster.
In spite of his lack of experience, King’s Gambit was strong in the betting off a mark of 102 in the Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot (8/1 SP) and put in another bold show, finishing third in the group of 10 who raced on the near side, and fifth overall.
The son of Kingman has got plenty of size about him, leading me to believe he’s probably still strengthening up as he gains further match-practice, and he should now be mentally ready for this sort of assignment too after the big-field handicap last time no doubt put a few hairs on his chest.
Stall one a significant draw
I’m far less inclined to back something likely to be held onto for a late run in the Coral Golden Mile as this race tends to be all about early track position, the first couple of furlongs run on an appreciable incline.
The 2022 runner-up and recent York winner Blue For You has drawn well on paper (stall 5) but Tudhope certainly won’t have it easy as this horse is best passing rivals late on, while Holloway Boy and Perotto, whose placed form in the Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot and behind the Group-class Cicero’s Gift at Sandown last time is among the best in the line-up, are housed in stalls 13 and 10 respectively so could face traffic issues too.
They’re also single-figure odds and, at a bigger price, I’ll take a chance on the readiness of URBAN SPRAWL for Charlie Johnston and rising star Billiy Loughnane.
After 18 racecourse appearances last year, Urban Sprawl has only made the one so far as a (newly-gelded) four-year-old, which can’t be by design but he won over seven furlongs here at Goodwood third time out last May and I’m banking on the low-key comeback effort on unsuitably soft ground at Newmarket last month putting him right for the big day.
He was pestered for the lead at HQ, looked to be fighting a losing battle on the slowest part of the track anyway, before being eased off and failing to beat a rival home.
Not an ideal prep, it has to be said, but the assessor easing him 2lb is a welcome bonus and this horse has been known to bounce back from poor runs in the past, like when third in the Britannia just 20 days on from finishing ninth of 12 as 5/4 favourite at Epsom.
In fairness, by the end of last year he’d developed a reputation for being a pretty tough campaigner, hitting the frame in seven of his last eight starts, and I’m encouraged to see the return of cheekpieces – left off for his comeback but worn for most of those placed efforts last autumn/winter.
The clincher is obviously the draw, the inside stall affording Loughnane every chance of dictating matters to suit himself and, provided he’s not taken on by stable companion Benacre who can also go forward, I’m expecting a decent showing.
Cox's King to bring up hat-trick of wins
I was all for backing Clive Cox’s Jasour in the King George Qatar Stakes before he was taken out (cut leg) on Thursday morning so the final bet comes in the non-ITV Hawes & Curtis Nursery Handicap.
The value looks to be more towards the top of the market here and Jasour’s stablemate THE DRAGON KING should be shorter than he is as he’s basically got everything you’d wish to see in a juvenile going into a competitive race of this nature.
First up, he’s one of just two in here to have won a handicap already – the other being Hackney Diamonds, who rather scrambled home over seven furlongs on softer ground at Leicester – and I don’t think a 4lb rise for his Windsor victory does the selection justice at all as he displayed a great attitude and looked well on top at the line that day.
The runner-up came out and finished second to smart prospect Coto De Caza in Wednesday’s Alice Keppel Fillies’ Conditions Stakes which acts as a timely boost, while The Dragon’s King’s fast-ground Doncaster win in May also worked out reasonably well (the third won a Chepstow maiden).
He wasn’t an expensive purchase by any means but he’s obviously a readymade two-year-old, who is progressing from run to run, and he has been winning over the minimum trip in spite of his pedigree which suggests he’ll improve again for the step up to six furlongs.
Throw in his good-looking drawn in 9, right next to speedy pair Zabeel Road and Shazani who should give him a good tow, and I’d be happy backing him at anything north of 11/2 so have to be a player at 8s.
Published at 1600 BST on 01/08/24
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