Burnley host Crystal Palace as they look to break out of the relegation zone. Jake Pearson has previewed the fixture, picking out two best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Burnley to win at 15/8 (bet365)
1pt Over 2.5 Goals at 6/5 (General)
Eight points through 11 matches represents Burnley’s joint-worst start to a Premier League season since their return to the top flight, though not by much.
At this stage last term they only had a point more and had scored five fewer goals, so there are positives as far as Sean Dyche’s side are concerned.
For Crystal Palace, despite the general good feeling surrounding Patrick Vieira and the way his side have started the season, they are actually a point worse off than they were at this stage last campaign.
It is the performances Palace are producing that are the most encouraging aspect however, and given they are unbeaten through their last six, including against the likes of Leicester, Arsenal and Manchester City, there is no denying the impressive work the French coach is doing.
Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
Burnley 7/4 | Draw 11/5 | Crystal Palace 8/5
Both these sides have been harshly treated by the fixture list if truth be told, each facing a difficult start to the season.
Both sides have already faced three of last season’s top four, and the average points per game recorded by these two side’s opponents so far are the two highest in the league – basically insinuating they have had the toughest run of fixtures.
Palace have undoubtedly dealt with the situation the better of the two, some seven points clear of the Clarets, but Burnley have a run of fixtures coming up that could well define their season.
Burnley, who themselves are unbeaten in their last two, beating Brentford and drawing with Chelsea, will take on Crystal Palace, Tottenham, Wolves, Newcastle, West Ham, Watford and Aston Villa in their next seven Premier League matches, and Dyche will be targeting these games as good opportunities to take points from, starting with this one.
Burnley have undoubtedly improved of late, with their only two defeats in their last six matches coming against Manchester City and Tottenham, but it was their 3-1 demolition of high-flying Brentford at the end of last month that gives reason to believe they have seriously turned the corner.
Three first-half goals put the Clarets out of sight at Turf Moor, but as well as creating plenty of opportunities, they also held Brentford, who had created an Expected Goals total of 8.1 in their previous four matches, against Liverpool, West Ham, Chelsea and Leicester, to minimal opportunities.
Burnley were a general 8/5 shot to win that fixture, and there is no question that if we were to place Premier League teams into categories based on ability, Brentford and Crystal Palace would fit nicely into the same one.
Therefore, a bigger price of 15/8 about BURNELY TO WIN again at home is questionable, and should be backed.
Both sides have something of a reputation for being defence-first teams, but Burnley have scored six goals in their last three league matches, while Palace have scored five.
Palace are leaky on the road as well, conceding an average of two goals a game, while four out of the five matches that Vieira’s men have played away from Selhurst Park have seen OVER 2.5 GOALS.
There have also been three or more goals in two of Burnley’s last three fixtures, and a price of 6/5 about the same happening here is worth getting onside, particularly with star-striker Max Cornet in red-hot form at present.
Burnley v Crystal Palace best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Burnley to win at 15/8 (bet365)
- 1pt Over 2.5 Goals at 6/5 (General)
Score prediction: Burnley 3-1 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 22/1)
Odds correct at 1110 BST (17/11/21)
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