Matt Cooper assesses the state of play heading into the final round of the RSM Classic and has a couple of each-way recommendations.
Golf betting tips: RSM Classic final round
1.5pts e.w. Mackenzie Hughes at 15/2 (Sky Bet, Unibet 1/5 1,2,3)
0.5pts e.w. Nico Echavarria at 45/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
Just one round and 18 holes to play on the PGA Tour in 2024 and there is still so much to play for. The RSM Classic itself is one goal, the top 60 in the rankings another (this earns starts in next year’s Signature Events) and the top 125 (which retains playing rights) is a third.
Vince Whaley and Maverick McNealy lead the way in the tournament and both are still chasing a first win at this level. The former, who sounds like a second-hand car dealer in a 1980s British sitcom, recorded his PGA Tour best of second in July’s Barracuda Championship and finished fifth last week in Bermuda. The latter, whose name resembles a wacky free spirit in a 1980s American cop series, is a five-time top five finisher at this level of which the most recent was third place in this year’s 3M Open (coincidentally also in July).
The pair lead Daniel Berger (Ben Coley’s pre-event selection), Mackenzie Hughes, Michael Thorbjornsen and Patrick Fishburn by two, Luke Clanton and Lee Hodges by three, and Nico Echavarria and Michael Kim by four.
What of the rankings issues? Echavarria started this week ranked 59th and is now 57th. Two strokes behind him Taiwan’s Kevin Yu is T12 and has sneaked up to 59th in the rankings from 61st. The latter is the recent winner of the Sanderson Farms Championship, a victory he admits has taken pressure off himself, but he’s keen to add further security by remaining where he is in the rankings. “Definitely means a lot to me,” he said after the third round. “Got to bring my A-game tomorrow to stay in that 60. I’ll try my best and hopefully it goes well.”
Further down the pecking order, Berger’s third round 63 has transformed his short- and long-term prospects in that it’s given him a chance to win this week but also vaulted him from 127th in the rankings to 108th. Of the latter he claims to be laid back, an attitude informed by a sense that he’s just glad to be back playing again after 18 months of injury. “I’m going to be fine,” he said of his future. “It’s just a matter of being patient and eventually good things come around. To be honest, no, I’m not concerned.”
Thorbjornsen is another who has made a move from outside the cut-off (138th) to inside it (120th). Alongside Yu on 12-under are Henrik Norlander, who started the week 126th and is currently 121st, and Hayden Springer, who was 128th and is now 122nd. Put simply, the margins are small. A shot here or there, often not played by the particular golfer himself, will determine where he plays his golf in 2025. Further down the leaderboard, Joel Dahmen started the week safe (124th) but is T61 for the week and now 128th for the year. It’s pure snakes and ladders stuff.
McNealy’s share of the 54-hole lead is his third at this level and while he broke 70 both times in the past he slipped one shot outside a play-off both times. Whaley is in entirely new territory. Of the quartet in third Berger has four wins on the PGA Tour and Hughes two, but Thorbjornsen and Fishburn are at much fresher points in their careers. The latter is in his seventh year climbing the tours and has a pair of third places this season; the former was an amateur star, topped the PGA Tour’s University rankings this year, was second in the summer’s John Deere Classic and eighth at the Sanderson Farms Championship.
Behind them Clanton is the current world number one in the amateur game, Hodges and Kim are one-time PGA Tour winners and Echavarria won last month’s ZOZO Championship and was sixth soon after in Mexico.
McNealy is best price 5/2 and Whaley 15/4. Hughes comes next on 15/2, Berger is 9/1, Fishburn and Thorbjornsen 10/1, Clanton 14/1 and Hodges 25/1. Ben tipped Berger at 75/1 so followers will head into the final round with plenty of hope while those who didn’t join in before the first round might want to get involved now.
At the prices, we’ll just favour the Canadian HUGHES whose course record is a bit like the girl in the nursery rhyme. When he’s good, he’s very, very good (winner on debut in 2016, runner-up in 2021 and 2023) and when he’s bad, he’s very, very bad (four missed cuts and a T65). In the win, he dug deep during a tricky final round (carding a 69) while the two times he was second he went low (62 and 63) so he’s already responded to multiple conditions (it’s currently expected to be conducive to low scores) and he's been putting well this week.
We’ll also add Echavarria at 45/1 because that seems to offer value for a fellow who does have something to play for (staying in the top 60 for the year) but who does so from a relatively secure spot (as a recent winner). He went sub-66 three times when winning in Japan and added a 63 in Mexico. Another low round could apply pressure and if the leaders struggle he's only two back of the second-best score on the leaderboard.
Posted at 0842 GMT on 24/11/24
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