Dave Tindall picks out his best final-round bets for Sunday’s action at The Country Club of Jackson.
Golf betting tips: Sanderson Farms Championship
1pt e.w. Kevin Yu at 6/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
1pt Rickie Fowler, Eric Cole and Kevin Yu to win two-balls at 13/2 (Betfred)
Keith Mitchell is a bit of a dude. He saunters around the course dressed like a golfer from 1983, and looks as if winning tournaments would come fairly easily. Indeed, he was the pre-tournament favourite to win this one.
Everything is going to plan. A late birdie blitz on Saturday secured the American a 7-under 65 to put him on top the leaderboard at 20-under. He leads by one from Beau Hossler, with Kevin Yu a further shot back. Bud Cauley, Lucas Glover and Jacob Bridgeman are tied fourth, four behind Mitchell.
History also leans towards the leader. The last nine winners of this event were all in the top three after 54 holes and in four of those (2017-2020) a third-round leader converted. Two of those - Ryan Armour (five) and Cameron Champ (four) had serious leads although, like Mitchell, Sebastian Munoz was only one ahead with 18 to play in 2019 while Sergio Garcia was tied at the top in 2020. Maybe we should just keep this simple and back Mitchell at 11/10.
That straightforward line of thinking is somewhat blown apart by the last time Mitchell led a PGA Tour event. That was this year’s Valspar Championship in Florida when he led by two with a lap to go and then made a complete mess of things. A wild tee shot in round four set the tone and Mitchell slumped to a 6-over 77, dropping from 1st to 17th.
He looks cool but winning isn’t easy. Mitchell hasn’t done so in over five years. Recalling that Valspar experience, he said: “Learning from that is really all I can do. Only won once and trying to close the door a second time, which has been clearly very difficult for me.”
Although this has been a decent event for first-time winners, it should help Mitchell that his two closest pursuers have never won at this level. Hossler is playing his 200th PGA Tour event and still hasn’t crossed the line in front so plenty will consider the 14/5 a no-no.
KEVIN YU has far less scar tissue so could be an interesting one at the general 6/1. The man from Chinese Taipei has put together three straight rounds of 66 so far. He ranks 4th for Strokes Gained: Putting and 13th Off The Tee. No-one has holed more than his 116 feet of putts.
Yu admits he’s feeling fresh after an extended break since August’s Wyndham Championship. “I didn't do much related to golf. I actually went fishing quite a bit with my friends and hung out with family and friends. I feel like when you go back to Taiwan, my mind just relax a little bit. Before Wyndham, we would like have, six, seven, eight stretch of tournaments. It's been a grind. I went back, and finally my mind can settle down a little bit.
“So I feel fresh and ready to go, and it helped me quite a bit I think in a lot of outcomes. Tomorrow just the same. Keep that mindset fresh, and knowing that I'm playing good and keep it going. I know I can be aggressive off the tee and if I keep hitting it good, I can have a lot of opportunities. We are just going to think very clearly on the golf course.”
Perhaps playing in the penultimate group will help Yu too. He’s alongside Bud Cauley, who is continuing his comeback from long-term injury. “It was a long process to get back," explained Cauley. "You know, I guess coming out and playing competitive golf is kind of what I'm used to I guess or most comfortable doing. It's been a slow progression all year of piecing my game together and making little improvements, and things are starting to come together.”
Together enough to win a PGA Tour event? I’m not sure. I’ll actually back Yu at evens to beat Cauley as the first part of a two-ball treble. There’s a fair chance any weak spots in Cauley’s game come out in the pressure of a round four and Yu is certainly playing well enough to cash in.
For the second leg, I’ll head to the 17.55pm game and take Rickie Fowler at 20/21 to see off Vince Whaley. Fowler added a mini-driver and a new putter to his bag ahead of the event following a layoff since 71st at the Open and he’s 19th for SG: Putting so far. He’s worked his way through the field to tied 13th with a 69 and two 67s and drove it nicely yesterday. Whaley has putted well but is outside the top 40 in the other four main SG categories.
To complete the treble, let’s back Eric Cole at 10/11 to get the better of Gary Woodland in their 18.30pm match-up. Woodland is hitting it well but was ranked 68th and last in SG: Putting in round three so just can’t find it on the greens. He’s also 112th in R4 scoring in 2024. Cole’s putting stats aren’t great either but he ranks 1st for SG: Approach this week and looks the more reliable candidate. The treble of Fowler, Cole and Yu pays 13/2 at Betfred.
Posted at 0915 BST on 06/10/24
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