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Golf betting tips: Final-round preview and best bets for the FedEx St. Jude Championship
Dave Tindall picks out his best final-round bets from this week's FedEx St. Jude Championship.
Golf betting tips: FedEx St. Jude Championship Final Rd
1pt Viktor Hovland ‘without Matsuyama’ at 16/5
1pt Sam Burns ‘without Matsuyama’ at 7/1
There’s always a buzz about FedEx Cup projections in these post-season events. And if someone who needed to finish in the top five to progress to next week’s BMW Championship manages just that, we’ll be told the extra incentive made the difference.
Of course, the examples of others facing a target they came up short of will be swept under the carpet. In short, I won’t be basing any final-round picks on those with specific missions. It’s a golf tournament with loads of wonga up for grabs: all of them will be trying their hardest.
Day three was noticeable for high humidity and temperatures in the mid-90s that caused plenty of players to get aggy/narked/frustrated/irritable (insert dialect of choice for hot under the collar). Even Justin Rose and Scottie Scheffler got the hump, the World No.1 angrily kicking his putter after one misread on the back nine.
History at TPC Southwind shows that 14 of the last 15 winners there were in the top five after 54 holes. Six of those had a piece of the lead. In terms of strokes behind, no-one in that study period has come from five or more back but, in its WGC days, Justin Thomas (2019) and Abraham Ancer (2020) both surged from four behind on the final day to lift the trophy.
So with Hideki Matsuyama five clear after brilliant back-to-back 64s, it’s hard to see how the Japanese star gets beat. That’s reflected in the odds with the 2021 Masters winner big odds-on at 1/4 in most places. Looking at his stats, Matsuyama ranks 1st for both Strokes Gained: Approach and SG: Putting. That’s a pretty powerful combination and after a bronze at the Olympics he surely strikes gold on Sunday.
A further delve shows that he’s converted five of his last six 54-hole leads across all Tours so the 32-year-old is a strong closer. The only time in that run when he didn’t get it done, he was tied with a lap to go. Here, he holds a huge lead and has Nick Dunlap as his nearest rival. The 20-year-old is developing into a real player but that would be some turnaround.
Scheffler is bound to attract some attention at prices around 10/1 given that he came from four behind (admittedly, I thought it was more than that) to win Olympic gold in Paris and five back to capture The Players Championship. The World No.1 has seven shots to make up here and that looks too big an ask even for him.
Scheffler leads the ‘without Matsuyama’ offerings too as you’d expect but his presence at the front of the market leads to some opportunities elsewhere. The leaderboard below Matsuyama reads like this: -12 Dunlap, -11 Hovland, -10 Scheffler, Burns, -9 Zalatoris, McCarthy, -8 Schauffele, -7 Power, Bhatia, Fitzpatrick, Finau, MacIntyre, Horschel, Rose.
I’ll start with a fairly obvious choice and go for VIKTOR HOVLAND. The Norwegian made a slow start this week but has roared into third place with rounds of 63-66. He’s the defending FedEx Cup champion of course and looks determined to try and remind himself of last year’s vibes when for a spell he was the hottest golfer on the planet.
Remarkably, he’s had only one top 10 all season but it’s worth noting how that panned out. After a troublesome swing-tinkering, coach-changing campaign, Hovland put himself into fourth after three days of the US PGA Championship. If there are still weaknesses after such meddling, they can be highlighted in the pressure of a final round but at Valhalla he added a third straight 66 to improve his position from fourth to third.
I’m expecting something similar here. He’s got the bit between his teeth again and ranked 2nd for SG: Tee To Green in the third round. Hovland is fifth overall in that category and also fourth for the week on Approach. In short, his numbers look robust and I’m happy to play him to be best of the rest behind Matsuyama at odds of 3/1. Optimists who think he can win the thing can get 16s.
Second in the ‘without Matsuyama’ market I’ll try SAM BURNS. The American is sharing a house with Scheffler this week, posing for photos with his compatriot’s new baby and generally having a nice time off the course.
Click here to back Burns without the favourite with Sky Bet
On it, he’s playing some fine golf. Burns is the second best putter this week behind Matsuyama and is 6th for Approach. I also like his history here which shows him jumping from 11th to joint-runner-up in 2021 after closing with a 64. That strong Sunday finish put him into a play-off with Matsuyama and Ancer which went the way of the Mexican.
Burns also made the top 20 the following year while four top 15s in his last six starts along with a strong run at Royal Troon before a late collapse shows a player in good form. This is certainly Burns’ stage given his liking for Bermuda greens and fine record in hot, humid conditions in this part of the United States.
He should also enjoy the weather forecast which shows temperatures creeping into the 90s again, with 10-11mph wind speeds adding to the test.
Posted at 0952 BST on 18/08/23
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