Fast Results
Scores
Golf betting tips: Final-round preview and best bets for the Black Desert Championship
Matt Cooper returns to pick out his best final-round bets for Sunday’s action at the Black Desert Championship.
Golf betting tips: Black Desert Championship
2pt win Stephan Jaeger at 9/2 (Skybet, Unibet, BetMGM, BetUK)
2pt two-ball double: Chris Kirk and Ryo Hisatsune at 3.2/1 (bet365, Ladbrokes)
There are many golfers in this week’s PGA Tour field feeling a little dizzy, either from the extreme heat or from the thin air at 900 metres above sea level at the Black Desert Resort in Ikins, Utah. Joe Highsmith is a good example. The rookie, who thrashed a third round 62, admitted: “I got a brutal headache the first day from either dehydration or some altitude sickness.”
Matt McCarty has extra reason to be feeling somewhat light-headed: it’s only his third start on the PGA Tour. Moreover, having opened with a 62 to sit two shots off the early pace, he added a Friday 68 and then burst through the pack on Saturday with a third round 64 that leaves him two shots clear of the field on 19-under 194 heading into Sunday’s finale.
For all his callow status at this level, McCarty is almost absurdly well-prepared for the task. Take the surroundings. This is the PGA Tour’s first visit to the Utah desert in decades, but McCarty grew up in Scottsdale, Arizona so is well-used to playing desert golf. “It’s just a very comfortable, very familiar environment,” he said after his third round. “I like the views and it’s just a cool place to be.”
The Tom Weiskopf-designed layout also suits him. “A lot of tee shots fit my eye,” he explained. “A lot of good numbers for us (with) how far I hit my driver and 3-wood. It feels comfortable in that aspect.”
What about his position? Well, the golfing equivalent of thin air is leading on a Saturday night. The hotel room becomes a little like a small tent at basecamp and it helps if you’ve ventured up into the thinner air of Sunday a few times before you take aim at the summit. In July, at the aptly-named The Ascendant tournament, McCarty led by three with 18 holes to play, carded 75 on Sunday and finished fifth. A week later he was tied for the 54-hole lead and this time pushed on with a final round 66 for a first win on the second tier Korn Ferry Tour.
Two weeks later he was in Utah for the first time this year, thrashed middle rounds of 62-61 to tie the third round lead again but a Sunday 68 was only good enough for second. No bother. Another near miss, another lesson learned. A week later he was a winner again and he made it three (and with it earned Battlefield Promotion) in the Boise Open. And guess what? Boise is 823 metres above sea level and, although the course is very different visually to Black Desert, both have similar mountainous backdrops.
This all sounds rather wonderful. “It’s fun,” he said. “This is what I’ve wanted to do. If I play well, I’m confident I’ll be able to win.” But is it too neat?! “It’s going to be really difficult,” he said and added a caution: “If (I don’t win), you know, we’re just getting started.” He was also aware that it’s a, “very uncomfortable golf course if you’re off the fairway. You could be reloading. It’s a tough place to have nerves on.”
Those who were shrewd enough to back him at 50/1 and even 66/1 pre-tournament will be feeling chipper right now, but taking the currently available 7/4 does not feel like the play. Highsmith is one of a pack of four sharing second, the others being Kevin Streelman, Harris English and Stephan Jaeger. They are themselves two clear of Harry Hall who is one ahead of Kurt Kitayama, Chad Ramey and Beau Hossler.
Highsmith (best price 7/1) is in rare territory. In his debut year on the PGA Tour he has a best of sixth in Puerto Rico and one more top 10, when T13 at Silverado two starts ago. Streelman (8/1) is a two-time winner at this level but on track for a first top 20 finish since July last year. English (5/1) has been flat since a top 20 in the PGA Championship but is now sniffing a sixth PGA Tour win.
The pick is English’s German high school buddy Stephan Jaeger at 9/2 (a tremendously potty sentence that requires a re-read – it’s all true). He’s got a couple of top 20s at Weiskopf’s TPC Craig Ranch (including a final round 63 in 2023). He made a neat start to the Fall run with T23 last week at Jackson CC and he’s ranking top 20 for every Strokes Gained category this week. He was also a winner of that Boise event in 2020 and fourth on defence.
We’ll add a two-ball double and kick it off with Chris Kirk over Matti Schmidt. Kirk was 8-under through 27 holes of the tournament and looked like a contender. He then made back-to-back double bogeys sixes as a consequence of some putting mishaps yet four birdies in his next five holes straightened the card. That effort told a little on Saturday but he closed with birdies at 16 and 18. He and Schmidt are currently T36 and in their careers Kirk leads the head-to-head tournament finish count 19-5 with one tie but is odds against today.
Using a similar strategy we’ll add Ryo Hisatsune over Chez Reavie. Again they are both currently T36 and the head-to-head count in career starts gives the Japanese golfer a 15-4 advantage. He’s evens and that makes the double 3.2/1.
Posted at 1151 BST on 13/10/24
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.