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Golf betting tips: Final-round preview and best bets for the 3M Open
Dave Tindall picks out his best final-round bets from this week’s event at TPC Twin Cities in Minnesota.
Golf betting tips: 3M Open Final Round
1pt e.w. Cam Davis to win at 20/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3)
1pt Tony Finau for top-10 finish (including ties) at 18/5 (bet365, BetVictor)
The field for the 3M Open was always going to be on the weak side given its scheduling on the back of the Open Championship at Royal Troon. But, let’s be honest, even allowing for that, this is not the leaderboard we were expecting with 54 holes played at TPC Twin Cities in Minnesota.
At the top we have a pair of veterans who haven't won in the current decade. Jhonny Vegas leads the way on 16-under thanks to a 63 while second place, a shot back, sits Matt Kuchar after he matched the Colombian's 8-under tally in a windy round three. Vegas last won in 2017 while Kuchar hasn’t entered the winner’s circle since 2019.
With 12 titles between them (three for Vegas, nine for Kuchar), at least they know how to get it done but Vegas is 39 and Kuchar 46. The victories don’t come so easily at that age, especially when it’s hard to recall the last one. The 13/8 about Vegas, whose best this season is 20th, doesn’t appeal. The 4/1 for Kuchar? A little more but he’s never been a good closer and only two of his nine wins have come in the last decade.
Maverick McNealy leads the chasing pack and is only two back after also shooting 63. The 28-year-old is 2nd for Strokes Gained: Tee To Green (Kuchar is 1st, Vegas 3rd) which is promising but I’m not rushing to back a player seeking his first win at 9/2. It may mean nothing but his two fourth-round scores in this event are both 73s.
Sahith Theegala is likely to have his backers at the general 17/2. The American, who finished fourth at the Scottish Open before missing the Royal Troon cut, is four in arrears after shaking off his previous course form of MC-MC-MC. But 51st for Strokes Gained: Approach? Hmmm. That suggests there is oil to be leaked in the pressure of a PGA Tour Sunday.
Patrick Fishburn has benefitted from a putter change/tweak in action and is reaping the benefits and he also joined the ‘63’ club on Saturday to charge up the leaderboard to lie four off the pace. On the basic idea of being high up a weak leaderboard, the 14s is okay but he just hasn’t really contended at this level.
So after striking lines through players left, right and centre, I’m going to play CAM DAVIS at 20/1 (and bigger in the odd place). The Aussie is the most recent winner in the field having landed the Rocket Mortgage Classic just two starts ago and that victory has extra significance given how form there correlates so well with form here.
Davis was third going into the final round at the Rocket Mortgage (he’s sixth here) and enjoyed the process of chasing down the leaders. He was also third after 54 holes when winning his first Rocket Mortgage in 2021 while, check this, when Davis secured his other two notable victories - the Australian Open and Nashville Golf Open (Korn Ferry) - he came from six shots back in both.
In other words, Davis is dangerous when he lurks. And with doubts over so many in front of him, the door could be open again even though we have to fight that slightly daft instinct to think that he can’t win another title so soon after the last one. In theory, the opposite should be true if his confidence is up.
With SG: Tee To Green a key stat when looking at past winners here, it’s encouraging to see the 29-year-old from Sydney ranked 4th in that category. Sitting 56th in SG: Putting looks a potential problem and the flatstick needs to heat up. But that already seems to be happening. Davis was 136th for SGP in round two but 18th on day three when shooting a 65.
Speaking after that 6-under lap, he said: “I've got my game in a place that feels pretty comfortable, I've got my head in a place that feels good right now. Yeah, I just feel like I'm in a position right now where everything's going well, it's just a matter of continuing to do the things I'm doing.
“I feel good about tomorrow. If it's windy again, awesome, I love the wind. It will be a lot of fun. It's enjoyable being back in this position where I do have a shot at it.” All positive stuff and Davis is worth a play at 22/1 each-way (1/4, 3 places) with Spreadex.
TONY FINAU was a popular punt this week but has rather dawdled his way through so far and slipped back to 23rd after two bogeys in his final three holes yesterday. Now nine back, his winning chances looks to have gone.
But don’t rule him out just yet for a top 10. Sure, there’s a lot of traffic to come through but at -7 he’s only three back from the trio in ninth spot at -10 and Finau has a win, a third and a seventh at this course. Bet365’s odds include ties which could be useful so take the 3/1 that he puts on a spurt and gains a fourth top 10 at one of his very favourite events.
Posted at 0926 BST on 28/07/24
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