Golf betting tips: Farmers Insurance Open final round preview

Golf betting tips: Farmers Insurance Open Open final round

1pt e.w. Taylor Pendrith at 22/1 (bet365 1/4 1,2,3,4)

1pt e.w. Beau Hossler at 100/1 (bet365, 1/4 1,2,3,4)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

A couple of weeks ago when writing this preview for the final day of the Sony Open, I noted: “In the last quarter of a century, you won’t find any Sony winner worse than sixth on the 54-hole leaderboard while the biggest deficit made up in that time was only four shots.” That strong trend was added to as Grayson Murray, one of the third-round leaders, went on to claim victory.

Making a final-round charge is one of golf’s sexy narratives so the good news for those craving some last-day action here is you’ve come to the right tournament. In brutal conditions in 2016, Brandt Snedeker’s closing 69 saw him leap from 27th after 54 holes to first after 72. A year later Jon Rahm was only tied 13th before surging through the field with a 65 to claim his first ever PGA Tour win.

It doesn’t stop there. Marc Leishman was four shots back after three rounds in 2020 but burst through to win with a 65 while the last two champions here - Luke List and Max Homa - were both five in arrears with 18 holes to play. List entered the final round in tied 19th so three of the last eight winners were outside the top dozen going into day four.

As if a repeat scenario is trying to be deliberately staged, we now have a 54-hole Farmers leaderboard completely full of non-winners. Stephan Jaeger (-11), Matthieu Pavon (-10), Nicolai Hojgaard (-10), Thomas Detry (-9), Taylor Pendrith (-8), Trace Crowe (-8), Jake Knapp (-8), Taylor Montgomery (-8) and Joe Highsmith (-8) are the top nine. They haven’t won a single PGA Tour event between them. That’s remarkable and unusual for a tournament of this prestige.

What’s more, the top four are already starting to wobble. Jaeger (73), Pavon (72), Hojgaard (73) and Detry (73) all failed to break par on day three, the latter making double bogey at the last. In short, there has to be every chance that this curiously European-dominated leaderboard looks very different at the end of Saturday’s round four.

Strokes Gained key consideration

The best predictor for success at this event down the years has been Strokes Gained: Approach so it adds further suspicion that the top four on the leaderboard aren’t ranked in the top 20 in that category in the two rounds at Torrey Pines South (the North wasn’t measured).

History says anyone within five shots - i.e. those at 6-under or better - has a shot at this but I’ll start with a player just three back: TAYLOR PENDRITH. The Canadian started at the 10th in round three, struggled to the turn and then came alive on his second nine when shooting an inward 31 thanks to six birdies against a single bogey. He has momentum.

The 32-year-old ranked 8th for Strokes Gained: Approach in round three and also 1st for Tee To Green. He shot all four rounds under par when finishing 16th on his debut here in 2022 and has further coastal California form via seventh place at Pebble Beach last year.

I also like his run of strong final rounds over the last few months. Closing 65s took him to 15th and 10th at the World Wide Technology Championship and Sony Open respectively. A 67 secured third place in October’s Shriners event in Las Vegas while a 68 helped him finish eighth at November’s Bermuda Championship.

Pendrith doesn’t have the pressure of the lead and it could be the case that playing in the penultimate three-ball helps keep him a little under the radar. Perhaps there’s a scenario where he posts the number and the final trio - Jaeger, Pavon and Hojgaard - can’t respond on that iconic final hole. All in all, Pendrith is worth an each-way bet at 22/1.

I’m certainly tempted by Will Zalatoris after he moved through the field with a joint best-of-the-day 68 in round three to land four back on 7-under. He’s getting better by the round as his comeback continues although I’m happy to ride my pre-tournament bet on the Californian. Ben Coley has also tipped him at 50s.

Hossler worth chancing at huge price

For my second bet, I’ll roll the dice, throw a dart and do any other sporting metaphor you can think of with a punt on BEAU HOSSLER at 100/1. The American - another seeking that elusive first win - fired an even-par 72 to finish five back but did walk off with back-to-back birdies to put a pep in his step.

Hossler ranks 11th so far for Strokes Gained: Approach and he’s also in the top 15 for SG: Putting and SG: Around The Green. If he can drive it a little better, a run through the field is entirely possible. A previous ninth place at the 2020 Farmers when he closed with a 68 helps fuel that idea.

The American finished 2023 strongly, reeling off six straight top 30s. The latter three were seventh at the Shriners, runner-up in the ZOZO Championship and 15th at the World Wide Technology where he signed off with a 65.

After an extended break, Hossler returned to action at The American Express last week and shook off some rust, especially on the weekend with rounds of 64-69. Sixth at the Barracuda last year and 11th and third on his last two starts at Pebble Beach, he has plenty of solid West Coast Swing form and just maybe he can win this by stealth when most eyes are elsewhere.

• Preview posted 1115 GMT on 27/01/2024

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