Two tips for our man on day three of the Qatar Goodwood Festival including a juvenile who could prove better than his opening nursery mark.
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Value Bet tips: Thursday August 1
1pt win Aviemore in 1.50 Goodwood at 16/1 (General) - NON-RUNNER
1pt win Mr Chaplin in 4.10 Goodwood at 14/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Nothing comical about Chaplin's claims
I’m happy to sit back and watch what should be a good race for the Qatar Nassau Stakes without being drawn into an each-way bet against Opera Singer, who I still think could be very, very good this summer/autumn, and I’ve little interest from a punting perspective in the Markel Richmond Stakes either.
However, after the ITV cameras are turned off, don’t miss the chance to back MR CHAPLIN off a mark of 88 in the Jaeger-Lecoultre Nursery Handicap.
He’s drawn a bit wider than you’d like but I’m not going to let that stop me playing as it’s not unheard of for those starting out in the double-digits to win or go close in this event, and I quite like the look of his profile otherwise.
The first thing that struck me is that he ran in the Coventry Stakes last month. His trainer Ralph Beckett – who also has Original Outlaw in here with first-time blinkers enlisted – doesn’t run many in the Coventry, in fact he’s been training since 1999 and his only other runner in the big juvenile race at the Royal meeting was Angel Bleu.
That one didn’t fare much better than Mr Chaplin at Ascot (finished 13th behind Berkshire Shadow in 2021) but he went on to land the Group 2 Vintage Stakes at this very meeting and signed off the season with back-to-back Group 1 wins in France.
I’m not for a second suggesting this colt can kick on in the same vein, but he looked a bit more than a handicapper when powering three lengths clear of 19 rivals at Newbury in May (replay below), and I think he probably found everything happening just a little too quickly when last seen.
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That’s perfectly understandable given his pedigree – he’s by first-season sire Without Parole and out of the unraced Midnight Hush who has produced four-time winner Mubtasimah, winner of a fillies’ handicap over a mile at Newmarket a few years back.
Mr Chaplin may simply have found himself in a winnable/below-par Newbury maiden but it’s typically a decent race and has already thrown up a couple of winners this year, including Tuesday’s maiden scorer here, Jouncy, who could now be in line for the Gimcrack at York.
On balance, I think the BHA mark of 88 given to Mr Chaplin is more than fair and I want the horse on side at double-figure odds.
More to come for Johnston outfit
“If you go to sleep, races can slip away very easily and the best horse doesn’t always win there…”
Tom Marquand summed Goodwood up beautifully in a Racing Post ‘Front Runner’ article with Jonathan Harding on Monday and Joe Fanning will need to call upon all of his experience at the track (505 rides and counting) to outfox not only Marquand (on Meydaan) but also Ryan Moore (Jan Brueghel), Oisin Murphy (Bellum Justum) and Jamie Spencer (Sayedaty Sadaty) on Gordon Stakes outsider Align The Stars on day three of the big meeting.
Things hadn’t looked all too glorious for the Charlie Johnston yard heading into a five-day festival they always openly target with pin-point accuracy, but Tuesday’s winner will have done plenty for the confidence and it’s hard to get away from the idea of the northern raider looking a little underestimated in Thursday’s Group 3 event.
Align The Stars does, admittedly, have quite a bit to find in pure form terms – 8lb according to Timeform and more with the official BHA assessors – but he’s improving at a considerable rate now and looks up to troubling some of these well-regarded rivals granted a canny ride out in front.
The obvious stumbling block is that he’s also engaged in Saturday’s mile and three-quarter handicap and he’ll surely be aimed there if he makes the cut which we won’t know until Thursday morning.
So look out for the weekend’s final declarations coming in and hang fire unless he’s effectively forced to line up here rather than in the £100,000 handicap, for which he’d surely be one of the favourites.
Regardless of when or where that one lines up, Johnston could have a live one at the foot of the weights in Thursday’s opening Coral Kincsem Handicap in the shape of AVIEMORE.
Sporting the second colours of Highclere, I’m in no mood to write off the son of Kodiac after his breakthrough win at Ayr in mid-July.
That came in a lowly Class 5 contest and he’s taking a fair jump up to come here in his follow-up bid, but the assessor has been perfectly reasonable with a 5lb nudge as he looked to win with more in hand than the official margin (a neck) north of the border.
Trying this 10-furlong trip for the first time, Aviemore strode on nicely out in front and found generously for pressure when tackled and looking a potential sitting duck two from home.
He showed a great attitude from that stage, seemingly loving the scrap, and while there are around half a dozen others who have previously made the running in this field, I’m happy backing Franny Norton to get the fractions right from stall one on this improving three-year-old.
Updated at 1000 BST on 01/08/24
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