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Today's tips: Racing preview and best bets
Our star duo of Rory Delargy and David Massey are back to mark your card ahead of Arc day, featuring a strong fancy in the feature race itself.
Racing betting tips: Sunday October 6
1pt e.w. Simmering in 12.55 Longchamp at 6/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
1pt win Sosie in 3.20 Longchamp at 9/2 (General)
12:55 - Qatar Prix Marcel Boussac - Criterium Des Pouliches (Group 1) 1m
SIMMERING was well ahead of Bedtime Story when second to Lake Victoria in the Moyglare Stud Stakes and while the latter impressed in the Chesham Stakes, she has not quite that matched that form since, despite winning at skinny odds; she was reported lame last time but failed to impress me on her previous start, and she’s one to be wary of in my view.
Zarigana could be a superstar, but her easy win over middling rivals in the Prix d’Aumale is style over substance at this stage, and the selection has improved for every demand that has been made on her so far, so looks the value.
1:30 - Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (Group 1) 7f
The Lagardere and the Foret are run on the “Nouveau Piste”, which means starting on a spur on the Grande Piste (main track), with one sweeping turn into the home straight, a very different test than the Boussac. Henri Matisse is the best horse in the race, but he’s tricky, as he showed when running around like a snipe in the National Stakes and he now wears blinkers.
Brian Meehan scored with Jayarebe here on Saturday to ease stable form concerns, and Rashabar may be the answer, but I think Cowardofthecounty is possibly overpriced.
He beat Houquetot at Deauville and ran well from a poor position in the National Stakes last time. A low draw isn’t ideal here, and he might want a step up to 1m now, but he’s going the right way and is not at all out of place.
2:05 - Prix De l'Abbaye De Longchamp Longines (Group 1) 5f
Let’s keep this simple. Believing has run screamers when second to Bradsell at York and the Curragh despite having a terrible draw on both occasions.
She is finally drawn better than him (in theory at least) and should be able to gain her revenge with a modicum of luck.
Washington Heights also has the early speed to get to the favoured rail and is best of the outsiders, but he is held by Believing on those last two runs.
3:20 - Qatar Prix De l'Arc De Triomphe (Group 1) 1m4f
Al Riffa is Timeform’s top-rated for the Arc. Al Riffa. Al. Riffa. Think about that.
Then think about Al Riffa being ridden around Longchamp by 75-year-old Yutaka Take (or Yakki Takki if you’re Willie Carson). He’s actually 55, but he’s been around forever, and it’s 30 years since his infamous ride on White Muzzle in this race. No thanks.
SOSIE is the pick based on his potential for better having won the Grand Prix de Paris and the Prix Niel over C&D on his last two starts, reversing French Derby form with Look de Vega in the latter, and unseating Delius as favourite for this contest.
This is an Andre Fabre Arc special, with Sosie’s entire career seemingly building up to this opportunity. Fabre has won this race eight times and knows exactly how to prepare one for the contest, and while he’s not top on ratings, he’s sitting on a huge effort, and has got an ideal draw in stall 5. That’ll do, pig, that’ll do.
4:05 - Prix De l'Opera Longines (Group 1) 1m2f
I’ve considered Friendly Soul the ideal sort for this race all season and while I’d be happier if jockey and trainer were getting more winners, I think she has a very good chance on form, especially with Fallen Angel untested over ten furlongs.
The selection’s Pretty Polly win at the Guineas meeting has proven red-hot form with runner-up Kalpana a dozen lengths ahead of the others and an impressive winner at Group 3 level last time. Friendly Soul must go right-handed, so an abject failure in the Musidora at York is easy to forgive, and she has progressed well to win Group 3 and Group 2 contests since.
Her half-sister won this race a few years ago, and I suspect this has been the long-term plan ever since York.
4:40 - Qatar Prix De La Foret (Group 1) 7f
Christopher Head scored with Ramadan on Saturday and Ramatuelle looks the pick in the Foret. She went very close in the 1000 Guineas despite not getting home over the stiff mile and the pair she split have both won Group 1 contests since.
She again ran well despite the trip in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot (first two have won Group 1 race since to frank the form), and this drop to 7f is exactly what she needs. Off the track for a while since Ascot, this is the race Head has been prepping her for since that midsummer break, and she can prove her class by beating the best around at this intermediate trip.
Preview posted at 1004 BST 06/10/24
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