Dave Massey looks ahead to a fascinating card at Cheltenham on Friday and he's opposing one of the card's pin-ups with his very own stablemate.
Recommended bets, Friday November 13
1.5pts win On The Slopes in 1.50 Cheltenham at 10/3 (minimum price 3/1)
1pt win Paint The Dream in 2.25 Cheltenham at 25/1 (minimum price 16/1)
1pt e.w. Vino Royale in 3.00 Cheltenham at 16/1 (minimum price 12/1)
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Slopes to have ‘em on the ropes - 1.50 Cheltenham
A really competitive handicap, but we (Rory Delargy and myself) both looked at the race independently and came to the conclusion that On The Slopes ought to be favourite for this, so at the current prices rates a bet.
Progressive throughout last year, his third in the Timeform Novices’ Chase, when beaten by Simply The Betts and Imperial Aura, is a very strong piece of handicap form, and it was no surprise he was able to win a couple of competitive handicaps at Kempton off the back of it.
Where we do slightly disagree is over the merit of his fifth here last time out. Rory still has concerns that the final hill might just be finding him out, but I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt at present, and am of the opinion he needed the run and no more than that. We’ll know more after this, but he remains an exciting prospect for the season as things stand.
Can’t gloss over the price - 2.25 Cheltenham
Another race we both looked at before our usual cheery morning chat, and we both are of the opinion that the prices look wrong. It’s not quite Eric Morecambe “all the right horses, but not necessarily in the right order” territory, but the four ought to be closer in the betting than they are.
We don’t think there’s much between the four at all at the weights, and that means we have to back the one we think is most out of line. That’s Paint The Dream, who we would have nearer 8/1 than 18s on his Dipper second, and that’s not his only good effort either.
Far from disgraced behind Grand Sancy at Chepstow, he traded odds-on in running at Stratford last time before succumbing to the progressive Happygolucky in the closing stages.
There’s enough there, getting 8lb off Southfield Stone and 5lb from Protektorat, to make you believe he’s got chances of upsetting the applecart. Getting him out in front and into a rhythm is going to be key, as there’s a chance all four might want to go forward, but if Connor Brace can, then it’s very much game on.
Vino Royale - 3.00 Cheltenham
Easysland looks by far the likeliest winner of the Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap, but we suspect that Tiger Roll may be some way off his peak, despite having had a pipe-opener on the Flat recently. Given they dominate the market, that means there’s some scope for an each-way bet.
One who appeals at the prices is the 2017 winner Kingswell Theatre who needs fast ground, and never had conditions to suit last year, so it would be dangerous to assume he’s regressed to the degree his handicap mark would suggest.
Kingswell Theatre actually started favourite for this race last year despite the soft ground, and with conditions more suitable this time around, I think early quotes of 33/1 are too big, even if he’s only playing for a place in realistic terms. Tiger Roll won’t be knocked about with bigger targets in the spring, and Potters Corner is a mudlark with no experience of the Cross-Country discipline.
The other horse who makes plenty of appeal at the prices is the favourite’s stable-companion Vino Royale, who has a similar profile to the one Easysland brought here last year, as a five-year-old who has switched early to Cross-Country events, and who is very hard for the handicapper to get a handle on at this stage.
Unlike Easysland, however, whose form is all on very soft ground, Vino Royale has shown his best form on a lively surface, and has two wins to his name on good to firm ground.
There’s a genuine chance that this youngster has the ability to win in receipt of so much weight, and that sways the verdict in his favour. It’s worth remembering that Emmanuel Clayeux won this with his supposed second string last year, and David Cottin is surely not simply bringing Vino Royale over to keep his odds-on favourite company.
Polish up his jumping - 3.35 Cheltenham
It’s easy to argue that Polish is a bit overpriced on his 5¾l third to Streets Of Doyen here last time out, a remarkable effort when you consider how many hurdles he met wrong and made mistakes at.
That’s form that would put him in the firing line here, but his hurdling has to be a worry. If they have done some intensive schooling with him and it improves, he can be given a chance at a double figure price here, but for us, he doesn’t quite make the cut for a bet today.
King can rule - 4.05 Cheltenham
Standing in the paddock for the Champion Bumper last year, I saw plenty of racy, athletic types but the one I decided I wanted for the future was One True King, a really solid, scopey sort that I’m sure will do even better again over fences. It’s therefore pleasing to see that he’s already starting to get his act together over hurdles after just a few starts, and after his C&D effort when second to another potentially well-handicapped sort in Tegerek, I see no reason to desert him here.
For a big horse, his hurdling technique has been very sharp. That was evident when he scored form the front at Uttoxeter two starts ago and again last time, when along with Tegerek, he pulled well clear of the rest, the form backed up by the speed figure.
After a quiet October by his own standards, it would appear the Twiston-Davies yard are finding some form, with three winners and three placed from his last 10, and that increases confidence that One True King can again run his race under conditions that suit. There may be one or two plotted up for this, which is a minor worry, but it’s hard to envisage him out of the frame if in the same form as last time, and he looks solid each way.
Sadly, since the time of writing, the price has gone somewhat, and we’d want a minimum of 13/2 if we were backing it each-way, especially with most of the firms going five places and 1/5th of the odds.
Posted at 1800 on 12/11/20
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