Free racing tips: Betting advice from leading tipster Rory Delargy

Recommended Bets: October 30

1.5pts win Apache Creek in 12.25 Wetherby at 5/1 (minimum 4/1)

1.5pts win Born Survivor in 2.10 Wetherby at 4/1 (minimum 7/2)

1pt win Smith’s Cross in 3.20 Wetherby at 9/1 (minimum 8/1)

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Up The Creek - 12:25 Wetherby

In the second division of the novices’ handicap hurdle Apache Creek, who is bred to need this trip and further, and was showing improved form when scoring at Perth last time, can step up again. That was just the son of Shantou’s second handicap, with the first coming over a sharp 2m at Newton Abbot, which was too sharp for him. He will improve again and looks a decent bet at the prices, as we feel that Apple Rock is too short.

Apple Rock won well at Carlisle on his return, but that is Ben Pauling’s only winner in the past five weeks, and while some of them have run well in defeat of late, it worries me that Pauling had a sudden loss of form this time last year. In the past month, his horses have been beating only around 40% of their rivals, and while I’d not be pressing the panic button, it’s enough to put me off backing the stable’s runners when short.

Born to be wild - 2.10 Wetherby

Last year’s runner up, the wonderfully game and consistent Happy Diva, lines up again for this but an 11lb higher mark this time around is going to make life a lot harder, and she is much worse off at the weights with Born Survivor from this race a year ago– a stone for six lengths to be exact, and Dan Skelton's horse probably overdid the forcing tactics that day.

He won this race two years ago, and is now 3lb lower than for last year’s run, while he’s faced tough tasks in Grade 2 company on both starts since. His latest fourth to Frodon in the Silviniaco Conti Chase at Kempton reads perfectly well, and with his yard in rude health, he can return to winning ways.

A Cross word - 3:20 Wetherby

The 1m7f and 36yds at Wetherby is one of the sharpest tests around for a chaser, and clearly plays to speed over stamina. That leads us to give Smith’s Cross another chance with blinkers fitted for the first time.

Michael Scudamore’s chasers outperform the market regularly, and this gelding looked a good prospect when finishing a place behind the high-class Esprit Du Large when third on his chase debut at Carlisle last season. He’s not gone on from that, but has often been tackling longer trips, and two runs over hurdles this season are easily ignored in isolation.

Smith’s Cross usually leads and while he can finish tamely, this sharp test ought to suit, and while the fitting of blinkers could go either way for one with his tendencies, but he is capable of burning his rivals off from a lenient mark if taking to the headgear. Just don’t back him each way!

Preview posted 1755 GMT on 29/10/2020

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