Free racing tips: Betting advice from leading tipster Dave Massey

Recommended bets, Friday & Saturday

1pt win Eye Of The Water in 4.35 Newbury, Friday, at 7/1 (minimum price 5/1)

1pt win Hugoigo in 5.06 Newbury, Friday at 14/1 (minimum price 8/1)

1pt e.w. double Eye Of The Water and Hugoigo, Friday, at 119/1

0.5pts e.w. Northern Beau in 3.35 Cheltenham, Friday, at 28/1 (minimum price 25/1)

2pts win Honest Vic in 3.15 Cheltenham, Saturday, at 17/2 (1pt at minimum price 11/2)

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Mudlark #1: Eye Of The Water - 4.35 Newbury, Fri

Newbury’s ground looks like being very testing for their end-of-season two day meeting, and you can expect some National Hunt-like winning distances for a few of the races. This sprint looks a race to tackle, with many of the runners having little or no form on heavy ground to speak of, but that’s not an accusation you can level at the in-form Eye Of The Water.

We were with him last time out at Goodwood where he found just the unexposed handicap debutant Amarillo Star too good but he ran his usual solid race in second and there seems no reason he won’t do the same under conditions he has no problem with. Indeed, he was placed in the race (on heavy) last year and is a pound lower this time around. He looks the primary pace angle in the race again, and we’ll be unlucky to run into another tartar this time.

Mudlark #2: Hugoigo - 5.06 Newbury, Fri

There were a few we looked at here, including the winner of this two years ago, Graceful Lady, who won (in good to soft) by 10 lengths, with another six back to the third. That gives you an idea of what we could be dealing with, a race that could easily turn into a last-man-standing contest and means you can rule a fair few out on grounds of them not being proven at the trip, or on the ground, or both.

Eddiemaurice has a good record on the track and won’t mind the surface, but seems to need a run or two after a break and that has to be a concern given he’s not been seen since March. Graceful Lady won that off 67 and is off 70 here, and she is harder to fancy this time around after running poorly in the right conditions at Newmarket, albeit in a much better race. She makes the shortlist, but it’s Hugoigo that gets our vote.

He ran well two starts ago in heavy ground at Ayr, only beaten half a length by Bollin Neil, who followed up at Catterick on his next start, and it was seven and a half lengths back to the third, who had won his previous start. He didn’t run much below that form when third despite finding the relative test of speed against him at Wolverhampton last time out, and as others fall away here, he looks sure to be plugging on. He ran his best ever race over 2¼m in this sphere, and while he’s been hard to win with, this race could easily fall into his lap.

I ought to mention the bottom weight Paintball Wizard, who I’ve had down for a race of this nature after his second at Nottingham around this time last year. He’s a huge unit who clearly needs deep ground to be competitive, and if he drifts to a big price on the exchanges, I’ll probably have a saver (or even a little dabble in the exotics).

Overpriced Course Winner: Northern Beau - 3.35 Cheltenham, Fri

Only two of the runners in the Bentley Flying Spur Handicap Chase have won at the track, and of those, Northern Beau makes most appeal; Michael Scudamore's mare will be passed over by many as she is out of the handicap, but she won here in April 2019, beating subsequent BetVictor Gold Cup winner Happy Diva when similarly out of the weights, and she was again ‘wrong’ to the tune of 5lb when scoring here last December. She ran a career-best over hurdles last time to show she’s back in good heart, and she has had a breathing operation since last seen.

Given she’s won both her starts in points, the bare 2m on the old course may be too sharp, but she always raises her game when running here, and her chase record on undulating tracks away from heavy ground is 21111. She was only sixth in this a year ago, and it’s possible that she is again using the race as a sighter, as she seemed to then, but I’m convinced (well, Rory’s convinced) that she is a better horse away from deep ground given her Flat pedigree, and she can’t be ignored at 28/1 in a race where you can crab the chance of most of the runners.

That Shoulda Been Favourite! Honest Vic - 3.15 Cheltenham, Sat

One of racing’s most colourful characters, now sadly gone, was the on-course bookmaker and punter Raymond Winterton, known universally as Racing Raymond. His cry of “That shoulda been favourite” when he’d snagged an overpriced winner was well known, and is occasionally echoed, by way of homage, by his long-time friend Eddie 'The Shoe' Fremantle. Eddie’s Runyonesque moniker is proof that he, too, is a character, and that there are still one or two left in the game.

We’ve both had a look at Saturday’s Cheltenham card and come to the same conclusions as regards the Pertemps Qualifier, namely that if there’s a massive and unexpected deluge then Tobefair would hold a great chance, but as it stands and on the likely ground, Honest Vic really ought to be favourite, and the ante-post odds compilers have simply miscalculated his chance.

Twice a winner from four starts last year, including first time up after a six month absence at Market Rasen (beating the useful Skandiburg), he ran a stormer in the Coral Cup, travelling well and holding every chance at the last before just lacking a gear up the hill. He gave the impression that a step up to three miles would see him in an even better light, and he is still well handicapped having gone up just 1lb for his excellent Cheltenham effort.

People sometimes complicate these races by assuming those above certain marks won’t be trying especially hard, but I’d be gobsmacked if Henry Daly doesn’t simply want to win this race, and Honest Vic will be primed for action as he was a year ago.

We’ll raise a glass to Raymond if he wins.

Posted at 1800 BST on 22/10/20

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