David Massey is a big part of the new daily tipping service from Rory Delargy (who had 17/2 and 10/1 winners on Thursday) and he takes over in the hotseat for Friday's bets.
Recommended bets, October 9
0.25pt combination forecasts (x6) Crownthorpe, Alternative Fact, Alemaratalyoum in 2.05 York
1pt win Joe Farrell 4.55 Chepstow at 5/1 (minimum 7/2)
1pt win Hold Fast 7.45 Kempton 17/2 (minimum 7/1)
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Main Bet : Joe Farrell 4.55 Chepstow
As much as the main focus will be on the novice events on the Chepstow card, no race will be more warmly received by jumps enthusiasts than the Veterans Chase at 4.55. It's a (socially distanced) chance to see old friends for the purists and punters love them too, with the form on the table for all to see.
Last year's second and third, On Tour and Joe Farrell, meet again on similar terms and given both looked like the winner at some point (the latter trading 1.03, the former 2.04) there might not be a lot between them again, but it's Rebecca Curtis's charge that gets the vote.
A late mistake then didn't help his cause, but he's a very solid jumper in the main that goes well fresh, and given he didn't see a racecourse until he was five, the 11yo has less miles on the clock than most of these. The ground will not be a problem, the booking of the excellent Jonjo O'Neill is hardly a negative either, and it's been pleasing to see a couple from the yard run well on their seasonal comebacks this week. With a good pace on and solid jumping likely to be to the fore, he's worth a bet.
Badly Drawn, Boy? Combo Forecast 2.05 York
A wide open handicap and one on which, when we first discussed it, we came to slightly different conclusions. However, after another conflab on Thursday morning, we worked out a way we're both happy to play it.
I was originally with last year's winner Crownthorpe, who only has 1lb more to carry this time around. I wrote up before his latest Haydock third that I expected a better effort and so it proved, as he tends to come to himself in the autumn. Rory is keen on the progressive Alternative Fact, who continues in good form and has conditions to suit as well. However, both have been given high draws (stalls 20 and 19 respectively), which initially put us off somewhat.
Digging a bit deeper though, and when the ground is on the soft side at York there's no real disadvantage to be drawn high. Stalls 1 and 2 actually come out very poorly, providing just a single winner from 92 big-field handicaps on the round course at York when the going rides soft over the last decade; other than that it's possible to win from anywhere and the usual thinking of York being a front-runners track becomes less of an issue too.
With that, Shelir in stall 16 and Boardman in 17 look two potential pacemakers out wide, whilst Garden Oasis in stall 3 looks the pace low and there's not much in between - we'll keep our two selections and throw in Alematyaroum in stall 15, who has a good record at a mile on soft/heavy ground (1113) on the basis that the market will undervalue the wide runners, as is often the case.
Back On The Right Track - Hold Fast 7.45 Kempton
There are a few potential improvers in here but Hold Fast makes plenty of appeal from the foot of the handicap.
She travelled well and did all but win on her latest start over 12f at Wolverhampton, beaten a neck into third, and with the fourth and fifth both winning on their next starts, the form looks strong for the grade. She recorded a very good speed figure when winning over 10f here earlier in the year, a win that earned her a crack at the Ribblesdale on her next start, and her performances to date indicate she’s much happier on the all-weather surfaces.
There’s an argument to be made she is eligible to run in lower grade than this, but she isn’t the biggest and she might be better off carrying a low weight in a race such as this where she’s likely to get a better pace, which will help her settle better too.
Posted at 1735 on 08/10/20
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