Matt Brocklebank looks to follow up Sunday's 11/1 ParisLongchamp winner with three Friday selections across the ITV action from Newmarket and York.
Value Bet tips: Friday, October 8
1pt win Billhilly in 3.15 York at 16/1 (BetVictor)
1pt win Star Caliber in 3.50 York at 14/1 (General)
1pt win Spirit Mixer in 4.10 Newmarket at 20/1 (General)
Spirits high ahead of Newmarket action
Newmarket’s Dubai Future Champions Festival is going to be quality and highly informative in equal measure, with odds-on favourite Inspiral very much the day one poster-girl in Friday’s bet365 Fillies’ Mile.
We have seen the odd turn-up in this race – Chriselliam struck for Charlie Hills at 28/1 in 2013 – but she’s one of only two winners to have returned SPs north of 10/1 in the past 20 years, and taking on Inspiral for the sake of it would definitely be unwise.
If there’s one to oppose her then it could well be old rival Wild Beauty, who was beaten three and a half lengths by the Gosden-trained filly at Sandown and has evidently improved since, particularly when faced with a mile for the first time in Canada last month.
However, there are more attractive betting opportunities elsewhere and the bet365 Old Rowley Cup Handicap is one that stands out a mile in that regard.
A large, competitive field of three-year-olds doesn’t necessarily mean they’re going to go a breakneck gallop, but a good, honest tempo at the very least looks assured here with three Mark Johnston runners declared, along with the handily-drawn Injazati (stall 5), who has made all for his recent wins at Newcastle and Newbury.
Two years ago this race was won by subsequent Group One winner Trueshan and it looks like there are some nice young stayers in the line-up again. Siskany, Boltaway and Candleford have all got really progressive profiles at 12 furlongs, but they’re consequently competing off higher marks – that isn’t technically true regarding the latter, of course, but he is effectively carrying 5lb more than at Ascot last time when William Haggas failed to include the weight cloth while saddling him up.
Given the way the race is likely to pan out, I’d rather have a very strong stayer on side and the one at the top of the market who grabs me most is Roger Varian’s Moshaawer, who enjoyed getting back on turf when only narrowly beaten into second in the Sky Bet Melrose over an extra couple of furlongs.
He is another grappling with the assessor, however, having been bumped up 5lb for the improved York effort, and I find it quite interesting that Andrew Balding – trainer of the Melrose winner Valley Forge – is happy to take him on again with SPIRIT MIXER.
Running a horse from 4lb out of the handicap in a race of this nature may look like a relatively risky roll of the dice from a man seeking his first ever trainers’ championship title, but Balding has had plenty of joy over the years with improving horses running from just out of the weights (Elbereth and Ian Fleming two who spring to mind), and I’m more interested in this Frankel gelding’s guaranteed staying power.
He’s obviously not lived up to his immaculate pedigree – he never will in reality as he’s out of Juddmonte International winner Arabian Queen – but he has improved since being stepped up in distance and his narrow defeat at Haydock last month was another personal best.
Not only that, it’s hard to believe he was seen in his greatest light there, being held up in a small field as winner Bandinelli enjoyed a bit of a freebie up front en route to sealing the deal.
For a handicap over a mile and three-quarters, it turned into a dash for the line and Spirit Mixer fought on tenaciously in vain, finishing stronger than anything to go down just half a length at the line.
He’s going to need all that bravery at Newmarket as he’s up in class and effectively running off 5lb higher, but I like the strong pace, the bigger field, the fact connections are willing to have a shot here rather than run in York’s 3.50 and – above all – the price.
Caliber looks locked and loaded
The betting for the aforementioned 3.50 at York – namely the Casumo Dare To Be Different Handicap – looks all about William Haggas’s Mahrajaan but he’s worth opposing trying the trip for the first time off a 10lb higher mark than when bolting up at Hamilton.
Ravenscraig Castle - well backed throughout Thursday afternoon - clearly has more to offer as a stayer and Fleurman could quite conceivably prove his 12lb hike for a convincing Salisbury win to be lenient in time.
However, they’re both around the right sort of price and instead I’ll be siding with Balding again as his STAR CALIBER looks underestimated in the market.
He’s almost twice the price of Surrey Gold, who he had back in sixth when a creditable fourth behind Makram and Calling The Wind over a mile and a half at Newbury last month, and stepping back up in distance looks a definite plus for him here.
He’s yet to win since beating Dhushan (now rated 99) in a Goodwood maiden on debut last September but has held his form well over a variety of trips in 2021 – including two miles at Ascot – and the latest effort was his first try in a hood.
The headgear is retained, with Silvestre de Sousa taking over from David Probert, and the way he battled on late in that classy Newbury handicap last time suggests he could take a bit of passing if settling in front on the Knavesmire.
Bill backed to get back on track
There’s a fair amount of dead wood – for want of a better phrase – in York’s Download The Casumo App Today Handicap and finding something well ahead of their mark could prove difficult for punters.
Ouzo is going to attract interest back from a break having dropped to precisely the same mark from which he won this last autumn, while fellow course and distance winner Orbaan now carries a career-low BHA rating of 97, 3lb lower than when successful here last July.
However, there are one or two with a bit more potential and I do feel it could be unwise to conclude that BILLHILLY is now in the grip of the handicapper after his winning spree came to an end at Newcastle at the start of September.
That was his fourth run within the space of six weeks but rather than the busy schedule catching up with him, it simply looked a case of him being denied a clear run down by the stands’ side.
The son of Sea The Stars has improved enormously for dropping back in trip in the care of Charlie Fellowes this season (formerly with Eve Johnson Houghton), but seven furlongs has appeared his absolute minimum and he was only just starting to engage top gear at Newcastle having come under a drive a couple of furlongs out.
The fact his momentum was completely halted – allowing Callum Shepherd no time to recover – is a far more accurate excuse compared to the assessor now catching up with him and, at the prices, following a month off, I can definitely give the horse another chance.
Stepping back up to a mile looks a plus on that latest evidence, as does the drying ground, while a good early gallop through Challet, Irreverent, Broken Spear and Garden Oasis should give him a decent tow into it from stall three.
Incoming jockey Louis Steward – successful twice on Billhilly at Lingfield’s Racing League meetings this year – does well generally for Fellowes (9-49, 20%) and he’s ridden some big-priced winners here in the past with a +29.00 level-stakes profit at York.
The ITV cameras at at Chepstow too for a veterans' handicap chase at the Unibet Persian War Novices' Hurdle.
There are only eight runners in the feature but all bar two of them are trading at single-figure prices at the time of writing and the value will likely emerge a little closer to the off. No doubt money will come for the Paul Nicholls-trained Paso Doble and Dan Skelton's Hidden Heroics, which could make Jamie Snowden's Up For Parol of interest, but I'm happy to leave him around the 8/1 mark.
Published at 1600 on 07/10/21
