French Saturday analysis: Graeme North on the Prix Jean Prat

By Graeme North

19:33 · SAT July 13, 2024

Don't miss Graeme North's analysis of the recent big-race action in France including the Haras d’Etreham Prix Jean Prat.

For the second year running the Haras d’Etreham Prix Jean Prat went to one of the outsiders, Puchkine, but his win might not have come as a total shock to those whose approach to race prediction is trend repetition, by which I mean looking for contestants whose path into the race is the same as a previous winner.

Using that approach, which does have an element of credibility and sensibility to it, Puchkine would have made the short list. After all he’d finished ninth in the French 2000 Guineas and fourth in the Prix Paul de Moussac on his previous two outings and the 2023 winner Good Guess had finished sixth and second in those same respective races.

In the French 2000 Puchkine raced in the ‘coffin box’ on the rail until the cutaway where he made some ground only to then get eased after his run floundered; in the Mousssac he pulled too hard in a race run over a fair bit further than the advertised distance after some hefty rail movements and once again didn’t finish off his race.

Small little tweaks to tactics and race distances combined with an altered pace scenarios can all compound to overturn earlier head-to-head results dramatically and there’s little doubt that being allowed his head on this occasion on the quarters of a pacemaker largely ignored by the rest of the field brought about a much-improved performance.

33/1 shock! Puchkine lands Group 1 glory in the Prix Jean Prat at Deauville!

Havana Cigar, for example, who’d finished second in the Moussac when looking an unlucky loser, had been only 0.24 seconds behind Puchkine at the 600m marker in that contest; here, settled out the back, he was more than twice that time distance behind at the same point and with Puchkine settling better wasn’t able to confirm the form.

The sectional model I use for assessing upgrades in France suggest Havana Cigar deserved a 2lb upgrade, enough to have taken him a length further clear of the third-placed Beauvatier who was making a welcome return to form but not enough to have reeled Puchkine in.

Fourth-placed Sajir looked once again like a horse whose niche is sprinting, fifth-placed Kathmandu oddly wasn’t ridden with the same dash down in trip that she had been in the French 1000 while sixth-placed Kikkuli isn’t one to be writing off at this trip but deserves a more talented pacemaker than the one he was allotted here.

The bizarre decision to drop Devil’s Point back in trip backfired much as expected, but at least he ran better than a couple of others, notably the continually disappointing Iberian and Romantic Style who dropped out alarmingly with 400m to run.

The winning time for the Jean Prat was 1.21.49, while that for the following Prix Amandine, a listed event for three-year-old fillies run over the same straight 1400m, was 1.22.29.

What those two respective times tell you after allowances have been made for weights carried is that the Jean Prat was the faster race by 19lb. Timeform don’t return timefigures for Deauville but those I calculate myself suggest that Pushkine returned 110, 6lb below the form rating Timeform awarded him, while the Amandine winner Fair Angellica returned 91 (12lb below) and the Prix de Ris-Orangis (the other race of note on the straight track) winner Shouldvebeenaring returned 112 (2lb below but he was worth a 2lb upgrade into the bargain).

The Amandine was just as well run as the Jean Prat to around halfway, the Owen Burrows-trained Miaharris, going through the 800m mark just 0.1 seconds slower than Zandy did in the Jean Prat, but the finish was slower with Fair Angellica losing around 0.6 seconds (three and a half lengths) despite pulling clear of the remainder who were led by Les Pavots who had last been seen when fourth behind subsequent French Oaks winner Sparkling Plenty in the Prix Sandringham.

The result of the Amandine was pretty much ‘what you saw was what you got’ with none of the horses earning an upgrade of any significance but upgrades suggest Shouldvebeenaring and Electric Storm were 2-3lb better than the result suggests over those behind.

It’s often said the sprinters aren’t a great bunch these days and that might have been what encouraged both Tribalist and Breizh Sky to take their chance, but their efforts showed that dominating races at a mile is a very different scenario than getting competitive at sprint trips. Multiple Group-winning miler Tribalist, perhaps the more bizarre of the two entries, never looked happy while Breizh Sky was quickly left behind too once the pace increased.

Home-trained favourite Tiego The First appreciated the step up to seven in the listed Prix Roland de Chambure and did well to win considering the slow gallop set by the ordinary British raider Assertively, sixth in the Woodcote last time out.

He might have only won by a length but he’s worth a 9lb upgrade over the aforementioned runner-up by my estimation, though this still doesn’t say much for the French juveniles. Excellent Truth won the other listed race, the Prix Goldikova, with plenty in hand. No tracking data was returned but she had the race won 400m out and ended up winning eased down under Christophe Soumillon.

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.

Like what you've read?