French racing preview and analysis

Charyn so good

Given the preponderance of low-quality racing in Britain and Ireland between Goodwood’s ‘Glorious’ Festival and York’s upcoming Ebor meeting save for the odd half-interesting Group contest it’s been very welcome to have some top-quality French action at Deauville to turn to every week.

Last Sunday’s feature was the Prix Jacques le Marois where all eyes were on Inspiral who was seeking her third win in the race after victories in 2022 and 2023 and who had Ryan Moore on board for the first time after connections had elected to dispense with stable jockey Keiran Shoemark.

Coming into the Marois off the back of a loss hadn’t prevented Inspiral showing her best at Deauville previously but both those defeats (in the Falmouth in 2022 and the Sussex in 2023) had been preceded by high-class displays in the Coronation (won it) and Queen Anne (second) whereas this year she’d failed to fire in two starts under Shoemark.

Unfortunately, the tracking data that has gone missing on so many important French races this year failed again, so we can’t know for sure whether Inspiral gave away the eight lengths the Gosden’s maintained she lost (it certainly didn’t look like it) but though she lost out in her bid for a hat-trick, finishing third behind Charyn, she showed more of her old self particularly when making a promising if short-lived burst 400m out. That said, Charyn won well.

Scoring in the third fastest time in the race this century after this after Moonlight Cloud in 2013 and Goldikova in 2009, he had the race in control even before taking over from the once again disappointing Big Rock 400m out for all he didn’t clear away until the last furlong where he was at his most impressive.

French 2000 winner Metropolitan lost his place slightly around 400m out when short of room then rallied to take second on the line, while Quddwah ran a similar race to Inspiral without being slowly away and looked short of the quality needed.

Charyn’s new Timeform rating is 125, an increase of 10lb on the figure he started the year from and one that given his rate of progress this year he can probably raise again.

The five-runner Prix Gontaut-Biron on the undercard promised to be a messy race beforehand with no obvious pacemaker and so it turned out with the field ambling along for the most part. Last year’s Grand Prix de Paris winner Feed The Flame had got back on track to a large extent in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud on his previous outing but disappointed, pushed along as soon as the runners turned into the straight before carrying his head awkwardly.

2022 Arc fourth Al Hakeem, who’d made a decent comeback after fourteen months off in La Coupe at ParisLongchamp in June, raced much more forwardly than Feed The Flame and took up the running with around 300m to run but was no more than workmanlike from that point. Whether he retains all his old ability or even deserved his price slashing for this year’s Arc to the extent it was remains to be seen.

The Prix Minerve was another steadily run race and went to the form pick Mosaique who was always well placed on the rail and did enough once in front to withstand the late challenge of the runner-up Le Combat Continue who ran her best race yet coming from further back and is worth rating just behind the winner.

Irish raider Comic Book (winner at Bellewestown previously) probably isn’t as good as this fourth-placed run makes her look on paper having set a steady pace, but fifth-placed Gala Real would have finished closer another day, set a lot to do relative to the winner and not getting an entirely clear run through in the straight but nearest at the finish.

Coventry seventh Cowardofthecounty who beat Whistlejacket on his debut at the Curragh finally got the chance to run over 1400m (and in a well-run race too, the winning time the fastest in the race by over half a second) in the opening Prix Francios Boutin and won decisively, soon prominent after a slow start and finishing strongly after looking to be threatened briefly by the unbeaten home favourite Houquetot. He’ll be even better suited by a mile or 1600m.

The listed Prix Nureyev attracted a strong British challenge headed by Sons and Lovers who was third to Phantom Flight in a similar event at Newbury last time, but the race went to Ombudsman who looks a colt going places after showing a smart turn of foot. Sons and Lovers (had the run of the race) held on for second ahead of Irish raider Stromberg, while further back in the field Dante third War Rooms never threatened in first-time blinkers and looks to be going backwards.

Economics a worthy Leopardstown contender

Talking of the Dante, Deauville’s action-packed Thursday card saw the return of the wide-margin Dante winner Economics, a colt William Haggas has a taken a softly-softly approach with, presumably in the belief he’s something special, and that approach reaped a further dividend in the Group 2 Prix Guillaume d’Ornano.

A two-length win over fellow British challenger Jayarebe is a pretty good marker by itself, worthy of a basic form rating of 121, but his performance (not that it could be substantiated by tracking data which - you guessed it – failed again) looked worthy of at least a 3lb upgrade given he came from much further back than the smart runner-up and had to chart a wider course too on a day the rail was out and he’s now rated 124p.

That looks a minimum in any case, and he’s clearly a leading candidate for the Irish Champion Stakes with or without City of Troy should he head there. Jayarebe also ran a career best finishing six lengths clear of the rest, but Almaqam looked a bit paceless on the fast ground and probably wants it softer at this level.

There was further success for Britain in the other Group race on the card, the Prix de Lieurey which went to Soprano who’d not been seen to best effect in two steadily-run race since her Sandringham win but benefitted on this occasion from being ridden close up in a faster run race than those two affairs by new jockey William Buick, and she settled matters pretty much instantly and quite impressively in the straight.

Last year’s Marcel Boussac runner-up Rose Bloom showed her best form this year to stay on well from a long way back for second, so overturning Chantilly form with Karl Burke’s Bright Thunder who was sent off favourite but might have found the ground too lively.

British or Irish-trained challengers were present in four of the other races on the card but only Joseph O’Brien’s Mojave River (Arquana Series des Pouliches, a newcomers event for fillies) was successful. Brian Meehan had the second and third in the equivalent race for colts and geldings with Mighty Boy and Brise Noir while Golden Gates Handicap third Black Run finished second a respectable second to the Group -placed Trafalgar Square in a Class 1 event.

Prix Morny preview

Deauville’s Sunday series will be ending on the 25th but before then we have the second Group 1 of the season for two-year-olds and the first in France, the Prix Morny over 1200m at 2.50.

There is quite a discrepancy between the Timeform ratings and official ratings for the quintet that have the latter; on Timeform’s weight-adjusted ratings Whistlejacket just edges out Arabian Dusk, the pair 3lb clear of Arabie, but official ratings have Daylight 4lb clear of Whistlejacket and 6lb clear of Arabian Dusk.

Given that the French betting public have stayed loyal to the home-trained horses at Deauville this summer even in the face of substantial rating evidence to the contrary (Cowardofthecounty and Soprano have both been sent off at around 6/1 in the last week when their form chances was significantly better than that) it might be that there will be a betting opportunity (though no prices were available at the time of writing).

Whistlejacket is the obvious place to start. He’s won two of his five races, including the July Stakes, and was second (110 timefigure) to Babouche in last week’s Phoenix Stakes. Timeform second-top Arabian Dusk, who not only represents the same connections as last year’s winner Vandeek but has a very similar Breeze-Up background, won the Duchess Of Cambridge in a 104 timefigure to continue her upward path and will surely be thereabouts.

Arabie, who has already plundered two Group races in France this year, the Prix du Bois (where Daylight tried to take him on but paid for her efforts) and the Prix Robert Papin but those efforts need improving on.

Daylight has come out since and won the Prix de Cabourg from the reopposing Polyvega and is clearly the best of the home runners but it’s difficult to understand why her official rating is so high, and bigger dangers to Whistlejacket and Arabian Dusk might well be the Norfolk winner Shareholder (when Whistlejacket was fourth) and the Coventry winner Rashabar.

Both look to have been targeted for this and it’s interesting that for all Rashabar was a big-priced winner of the Coventry he did it on merit and against a draw bias too. The next best home on his side Camille Pissarro (whom he beat readily) is now rated 102 and with Brian Meehan having a good meeting he might be the one who gets overlooked.

Rest of Deauville

The supporting Group 1, the Prix Jean Romanet, sees the second appearance at the meeting of Mqse de Sevigne who won the Prix Rothschild for the second year running last time out so taking her winning record over the past twelve months to five out of the six with her only defeat in that time coming in the Sun Chariot.

Msqe de Sevigne was a convincing winner in the Rothschild with sectional upgrades suggesting she was quite a bit better than those who followed her home, one of which was the light-of-former days Blue Rose Cen who trailed home in last place but gets another crack at her here. Joseph O’Brien saddled the third home that day, Rogue Millennium, and is two-handed this time but it’s hard to see either American Sonja (second in a Group 3 at the Curragh last month) or Maxux (gone backwards since reappearance and well beaten only previous start on good to firm) being good enough. Msqe de Sevigne is an obvious pick, albeit at a very short price.

Staying races are always difficult to unpick in France and though there are only five runners in the Group 2 Prix Kergolay the picture is complicated by two runners from Germany, Alessio and Waldadler. Horses trained in Germany have won one of the twelve Group races they have contested this year in France as well as finishing either second or third in two others, so their challenge headed by Group 2 winner Alessio merits respect but he’s a bit to find with the reopposing Double Major from the Prix Maurice de Neuil last time.

The final Group race on the card is the Prix Alec Head (formerly the Prix de la Nonette) for three-year-old fillies over a mile and a quarter and has attracted seven fillies of significantly varying merit, at least on their form so far. Pretty Polly winner Friendly Soul is clear on Timeform ratings and she has a clear chance on both that form (timefigure even better than her 110 performance rating) as well as her Valiant Stakes win with Kieran Shoemark entrusted with the ride.

In both those wins she made the running and with no other filly inclined to be ridden from the front regularly (Halfday was in the French Oaks, but she was a pacemaker that day, while Kitty Rose has made the running too before) she ought to be good enough to make all.

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