French racing column including Prix du Jockey Club analysis and Sunday preview

Unpicking the Prix du Jockey Club

I wrote in my Watch And Learn column published earlier this week that neither of the two Derbies run last weekend looked vintage renewals beforehand, but whereas there was at least some underlying strength to the Betfred Derby I’m not sure even that accusation can be levelled at the Prix du Jockey-Club, whose winner Look De Vega emerged clearly the best of a distinctly substandard bunch.

Indeed, the performance rating Timeform awarded him was just 118, 12lb below what the subsequent Arc winner Ace Impact had achieved in 2023, 9lb below what subsequent Arc second Vadeni had achieved in 2022 (and City of Troy posted at Epsom) and 3lb and 2lb respectively lower than the two winners preceding St Mark’s Basilica and Mishriff.

The only winners to have been rated so low since 2010 were the 2018 winner Study Of Man, who never won again, and the 2012 winner Saonois, who ended his career a year later beating just two home in the minor surroundings of Marseille Borely.

Those statistics don’t augur too well on the face of things for Look De Vega but a detailed dive at the sectional times published on the France Galop website show that he’s worth upgrading by anything between 4lb and 7lb more than the quartet who chased him home, with the biggest 200m by 200m (the French equivalent of furlong by furlong) relative increase coming in the last 200m of all where he powered through the line (much as he had done on his previous two starts) in the manner of one who will relish a mile and a half, at which trip he’s destined for on this evidence for a rating around 125 or higher.

Look De Vega might have run the fastest last 200m as well as the fastest penultimate 200m, but fifth-placed Mondo Man was credited with running the fastest last 600m as he had done in both his previous two races which included the Prix La Force, where he had finished ahead of the Jockey Club runner-up First Look.

On that occasion Mondo Man had been just two and a half lengths behind First Look 800m out and on his shoulder 600m out; but here he was four and a half lengths and two lengths behind him at the same points with a crazily fast third-last 200m which he ran over two lengths faster than anything else, ultimately compromising his finishing effort.

All his last three races suggest he’s entitled to be considered better than all other than Look De Vega he has competed against, but anyone thinking of backing him going forward will have to factor in how far he has been dropped out each time.

Third-placed Sosie stayed on well (third-fastest last 200m) from the plum inside draw in the manner of one who’ll also be suited by a mile and a half but fourth-placed Ghostwriter (for whom the ground might have been softer than ideal, admittedly) was noticeably slow through the last 600m and will likely drop back to a mile.

Alcantor covered most ground relative to the winner but both his performance as well as those of both Diego Velazguez and Ramadan (worst of draw admittedly) shot a hole through the French Guineas form and Sunway’s performance (seventh) was another that will surely have had his trainer David Menuisier puzzled once more. It might be too early to give up on the disappointing Fast Tracker but the suspicion is he didn’t beat much in his two previous wins while the once-promising Atlast disappointed again and may well have been brought out again too soon after looking distinctly uncomfortable on fast ground on his previous start.

Elsewhere on the card Amy Murphy sent out her fourth individual two-year-old winner in France this year when landing the opening Prix d’Orgemont with Itsatenfromlen (Timeform 89p).

In another hint that the best of the early-season French juveniles are a level below those in Britain (who equally seem another level below the best of the Irish) one of those previous winners Convo was no match for York runner-up Francisco’s Piece (improved rating a little to 96) in the listed Prix La Fleche.

Francisco’s Piece had run a 93 timefigure at York and his winning time on this occasion stacks up quite pretty well (15lb inferior) to that recorded by all-the-way Ponntos who might not have had a lot to beat as it turned out (this column’s fancy Albasheer never went a yard) in the following G3 Prix du Gros-Chene.

Hong Kong Vase winner Junko won a slowly-run Grand Prix de Chantilly but he looked rather fortunate to do so, benefitting from a good ride that saw the three that chased him home all earn bigger upgrades from 600m out with third-place Dubai Honour receiving the biggest of all.

Aventure ran out a very impressive winner of the G3 Prix de Royaumont over the same distance, doing so not only in a time getting on for two seconds faster than Junko but also in a last 200m time just 0.13 seconds slower than the fastest in that race as she cleared right away from 200m pole despite with her rider taking things easy, in the process putting herself right in the Arc picture while emulating her high-class dam (later a G2 winner at the Arc meeting) who finished third in the race in 2008.

Sparkling Plenty had been only one of two runners in the French 1000 Guineas to have run a sub 11-second last 200m and she got back to winning ways with something to spare in a very slowly-run G2 Prix de Sandringham with Rolica not doing much for the 1000 Guineas form back in fifth. Jasna’s Secret also returned to her best in the listed Prix Marchand D’Or and it’s worth keeping on side the filly that beat her so comprehensively and impressively back at Chantilly in March but flopped in the French 1000, Louise Proctor, when she reappears next which may be in the Prix de Diane (the French Oaks) in seven days time for which there will be a preview here.

Sunday Longchamp preview

Sunday’s card at ParisLongchamp isn’t as interesting as the one at Chantilly last Sunday but all the same there are two pattern races and three listed events. Both pattern races carry G3 status and more interesting of the pair is La Coupe, a race for older horses over 2000m who haven’t this year won a Group 2, notably because it sees the reappearance after a year off the track of Al Hakeem who was fourth in both the 2022 French Derby and 2022 Arc.

Obviously, a tip-top ready-primed Al Hakeem would take all the beating in this race on these terms, and given he’s officially rated 10lb or more clear of nearly all his rivals anyway ought to bang on the premises even if not fully wound up, but he faces a serious rival in the shape of the Aga Khan owned Zarir who twice won impressively on the polytrack at Chantilly back in the spring before surpassing those efforts when second to Haya Zark in the Prix Ganay last time where he finished ahead of the reopposing Birr Castle as well as the likes of Feed The Flame and Horizon Dore while posting the fastest last 200m for good measure.

The slight question mark Zarir has to answer is whether the further drop back in trip is the right move given those dominant Chantilly wins came over 2700m, but equally it could be argued that 2000m isn’t Al Hakeem’s best trip either so it will be fascinating to see what transpires.

The other G3, the Prix Paul de Moussac, is for three-year-olds who haven’t won a Group 1 this season and takes place over 1400m. Much like La Coupe, the race has attracted a ragbag of abilities with around 30lb separating the top-rated horse on official ratings (Sajir) from the bottom (Lazym). Sajir has won three of his five races including his last two and scored over this trip at Chantilly last autumn in listed company where he absolutely blitzed his rivals in the last 600m, running that section over six lengths faster than any of his rivals, and unsurprisingly in view of that speed show had little trouble handling the drop to 1100m in the G3 Prix Sigy on his reappearance.

He might have only won that race by half a length over a race-fit rival who has since finished second in the G3 Prix Texanita, but he travelled notably strongly on a wildly windy day before putting three lengths between himself and the rest when asked to go and win his race before tiring as lack of a previous run told. Sixth behind Vandeek in the Prix Morny last year, that win earned him a penalty for this.

The aforementioned Lazym is presumably running as a pacemaker for his stable-companion Lazzat who is in the same ownership and how that pans out remains to be seen given he doesn’t belong in this company and Lazzat made all the running when winning the G3 Prix Djebel when last seen anyway. That run more than confirmed the abundant ability he’d shown at Cagnes-sur-Mer in three runs earlier this year when demonstrably far superior than anything he came up against and both he and Sajir look bonafide Group 2 horses in a race arguably lacking a genuine Group 3 horse other than Havana Cigar. It’s hard to choose between them for all Lazzat has for now the slightly better form in the book.

The opening listed Prix Ridgway over 2000m has attracted just five runners and fascinatingly sees the third appearance of the supplemented Hamavi who won over the course on his debut before being sent off favourite for a Class 2 next time only to find a certain Look De Vega too strong. Hamavi had every chance in that race and the sectionals show he didn’t see the race out anywhere as near as well as the subsequent French Derby winner or even the third Colombus who flopped in a Derby trial in Germany next time.

Hamavi doesn’t have an official rating in France as yet but reading between the lines of those he has finished in and around he looks on the face of it to have a bit to find with Godolphin’s Casapueblo who finished third behind Wootton Verni and French Derby seventh Sunway in the G3 Prix Greffulhe last time out.

That race looked extremely muddling, however, with the seemingly-exposed winner suddenly showing improved form in a modestly-run race despite being ridden from off the pace. Wathnan’s Soldier’s Gold was well trounced at Bordeaux last time and the other supplemented hose, Shahbazi, has already has his limitations exposed in similar company as well as in Italy, so Hamavi could easily be plenty good enough.

The second listed race, the Prix Melisande, looks a good opportunity for Almara who was second in the Prix Saint-Alary last time which was a strong race as might be expected with the subsequent Oaks third Wind Chimes in the wash behind her as well as the smart Dare To Dream.

She represents the same connections as Look De Vega but this won’t be all plain sailing with Some Skye (third behind leading Prix de Diane candidate Gala Real as well as Aventura last time albeit after pinching a sizeable advantage up front under a canny ride while they were held up well back) in opposition as well as the supplemented Earendel who scored on her only start so far and Happy Saxon who still looked raw when coming from an unpromising position to win a maiden last time at Chantilly on her second start. Almara sets a very tall standard, however.

The final listed contest is the Prix Volterra for three-year-olds over a mile. Ten face the starter and it will take an improved performance from one of the fillies to beat Minoushka who was badly drawn in the French 1000 and never figured all while covering much more ground than any of the other runners but has fared much better here in stall 2.

Her previous second in the Prix de la Grotte reads well but it may be that either British challenger Rochelle who looked an improved performer when routing her rivals in a fast time at Kempton on her reappearance on her first start for her current trainer or the progressive Obsess for Jean-Cloude Rouget will be up to that task with the latter a potentially poignant winner given her regular rider Coralie Pacaut is sidelined for six weeks having suffered a double fracture in a fall at Argentan earlier this week.

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